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Can a bunch of strangers out-think a team of focused experts? Under certain conditions, according to this intriguing book, yes. Author James Surowiecki cites numerous experiments and real-life situations to illustrate how a group of diverse people who cooperate in the attempt to solve a problem, and whose efforts are coordinated without compromising each person's independence, will come up with a better answer than even its most intelligent members working alone.
For example, in an attempt to locate a missing submarine, a hastily arranged team of people with very different skill sets came up with coordinates good enough for the military to find the sunken vessel! They had nothing to go on but some facts that had left rescuers clueless, and yet when their answers were averaged, an uncanny precision emerged. Convincing examples like this are provided throughout the book.
Surowiecki's hypothesis is most convincing when he writes about the solutions to specific problems, supporting his arguments with historical fact or known results. Average the guesses to how many jellybeans are in a jar, and you'll almost always get the most accurate answer.
He also hits the mark when he discusses market theory, and how individuals with self-interest make the market work like a smart crowd, sometimes even a wise one. He supports these notions by referring to numerous published studies, famous experiments, and some solid arguments.
It's important to remember that much of the talk on economics cites highly controlled studies, or very limited real-world studies. Life doesn't necessarily work as advertised, and that's why we have laws, regulations, courts, and lots and lots of lawyers.
Surowiecki's thesis also gets a little shaky when he ventures into the smoky world of politics. After all, a roomful of politicians doesn't exactly inspire confidence in the wisdom of crowds (though it does bring to mind the word wiseguys). And didn't a group of "experts" known as the Supreme Court decide an election supposedly meant to be left in the hands of a wise crowd known as the American voters?
Democracy, voting, ideology, these are big, hairy topics, and Surowiecki senses that he won't do them justice in his short book. In the end, he simply repeats a truth that we the public, as a wise crowd, know: Democracy is far from perfect, but still the best system of government we know of. And that, perhaps, is the wisdom of the crowd at work.
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Igal, September 20, 2006
Can a bunch of strangers out-think a team of focused experts? Under certain conditions, according to this intriguing book, yes. Author James Surowiecki cites numerous experiments and real-life situations to illustrate how a group of diverse people who cooperate in the attempt to solve a problem, and whose efforts are coordinated without compromising each person's independence, will come up with a better answer than even its most intelligent members working alone.For example, in an attempt to locate a missing submarine, a hastily arranged team of people with very different skill sets came up with coordinates good enough for the military to find the sunken vessel! They had nothing to go on but some facts that had left rescuers clueless, and yet when their answers were averaged, an uncanny precision emerged. Convincing examples like this are provided throughout the book.
Surowiecki's hypothesis is most convincing when he writes about the solutions to specific problems, supporting his arguments with historical fact or known results. Average the guesses to how many jellybeans are in a jar, and you'll almost always get the most accurate answer.
He also hits the mark when he discusses market theory, and how individuals with self-interest make the market work like a smart crowd, sometimes even a wise one. He supports these notions by referring to numerous published studies, famous experiments, and some solid arguments.
It's important to remember that much of the talk on economics cites highly controlled studies, or very limited real-world studies. Life doesn't necessarily work as advertised, and that's why we have laws, regulations, courts, and lots and lots of lawyers.
Surowiecki's thesis also gets a little shaky when he ventures into the smoky world of politics. After all, a roomful of politicians doesn't exactly inspire confidence in the wisdom of crowds (though it does bring to mind the word wiseguys). And didn't a group of "experts" known as the Supreme Court decide an election supposedly meant to be left in the hands of a wise crowd known as the American voters?
Democracy, voting, ideology, these are big, hairy topics, and Surowiecki senses that he won't do them justice in his short book. In the end, he simply repeats a truth that we the public, as a wise crowd, know: Democracy is far from perfect, but still the best system of government we know of. And that, perhaps, is the wisdom of the crowd at work.
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