Forecasting is a crucial method for managing inventory control. It is an essential skill for all operations and manufacturing professionals, as well as those professionals in distribution and logistics. This practical reference offers an up-to-date and thoroughly accessible overview of this key concept, covering both theory and practice from current demand forecasting methods. The author, a seasoned expert in the field, provides complete details on the links between forecasts produced by analyzing demand data and the various methods by which this information—in conjunction with cost material on stocked items—is used to establish workable parameters for the most commonly used inventory control systems. In Demand Forecasting and Inventory Control, Colin D. Lewis takes an in-depth look at the family of short-term forecasting models that are based on the exponentially weighted average and its many variants. With sample data that includes calculations necessary for hands, on applications, Lewis takes you step by step through a variety of essential processes, among them how to forecast in stationary demand situations, plus how to relate forecast and demand data to specific time periods. You’ll also learn how to assess the validity and accuracy of selected fore casting models. In addition, Lewis examines a group of medium-term forecasting models based on a time-series, curve-fitting approach. The group encompasses, among other key topics, regression analysis, straight-line trend forecasts, and seasonality. Additional sections on inventory control investigate the re-order level policy and re-order cycle policy, illustrating how they can be operated at minimum cost while offering a high level of customer service. Special consideration is given to the hybrid (s/S) inventory control policy and to the situation characterized by such items as slow moving spares—where the demand for a single unit can be expressed by an average interval between issues as long as 20 years. To aid your understanding of the techniques and methods described, Demand Forecasting and Inventory Control contains a user-friendly computer learning package called OPSCON (Operations Planning and Control). Aimed at practitioners, as well as students who want to understand the processes behind the software they use, OPSCON features a number of short-term forecasting models and inventory control scenarios that enable you to establish solid policy parameters using either your own data or demonstration data. Packed with helpful examples, easy-to-read graphs, and sample calculations, Demand Forecasting and Inventory Control is an indispensable primer for everyone who needs to get a firm grasp on the principles, fundamentals, and applications of this increasingly vital concept.

COLIN D. LEWIS is Professor of Operations Management at Aston Business School in Birmingham, England. He has written extensively on forecasting and inventory control and is an enthusiastic advocate of the use of computers in the learning process.

FORECASTING.

Demand Forecasting and Inventory Control.

Short-Term Forecasting for Stationary Demand Situations.

Short-Term Forecasting for Growth and Seasonality.

Medium-Term Forecasting for Growth and Seasonality.

The Essential Links between Forecasting and Inventory Control.

INVENTORY CONTROL - THE RE-ORDER LEVEL INVENTORY POLICY.

Establishing the Value of the Re-Order Level.

Establishing the Size of the Replenishment Order.

Examining the Relationship between the Re-Order Level and the Replenishment Quantity.

INVENTORY CONTROL - THE RE-ORDER CYCLE INVENTORY POLICY.

Establishing the Review Period and Maximum Stock Level.

CONCLUSION.

Selecting the Most Appropriate Inventory Control Policy.

Appendices.

References.

Index.