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More copies of this ISBNThis title in other editionsFire Your Stock Analyst: Analyzing Stocks on Your Ownby Harry Domash
Synopses & ReviewsPublisher Comments:The #1 Guide to Do-It-Yourself Stock Analysis–Now Fully Updated with Powerful New Shortcuts!
“Harry’s book is among my most recommended readings because it provides a step-by-step process that enables any investor to analyze potential investment opportunities and ultimately become a much better investor.” – Charles E. Kirk, The Kirk Report
“This is a thoughtful book that will stir the imagination and whet the appetite of anyone considering investing in stocks. It will serve as a foundation for lifelong education in how to improve your wealth.” – Victor Niederhoffer, Chief Speculator, Manchester Investments, and author of the best-selling Education of a Speculator
“This book is sensible, balances risks with rewards, has a lot of real-world practical examples carefully worked out, and a lot of tangible parameters. This is the book I wish I had time to write.” – David Edwards, President, Heron Capital Management, Inc.
“Fire Your Stock Analyst! grabbed my attention early and held it to the very end. This is a good book if you are interested in being your own stock guru or just getting started in common stock investment analysis.” – Nicholas D. Gerber, Portfolio Manager, Ameristock Funds
“A refreshing antidote to run-of-the-mill investing ‘how-tos.’ The net result is an insightful and useful treatise on investing that works for both growth and value plays.” – Charles Mulford, Invesco Chair and Professor of Accounting, Georgia Institute of Technology, and coauthor of The Financial Numbers Game: Detecting Creative Accounting Practices
“Fire Your Stock Analyst! offers honest and up-to-the minute advice and guidance on the investment-research process. Domash offers up a great combination of textbook knowledge backed by real-world examples.” – Richard H. Driehaus, Driehaus Capital Management, Inc.
“Fire Your Stock Analyst! provides well-thought-out, sensible, step-by-step strategies for analyzing stocks, including when to sell. These analytical methods, used by pros though rarely explained to individual investors, will help you improve your results in the market right away.” – Jon D. Markman, Senior Investment Strategist and Portfolio Manager, Pinnacle Investment Advisors Synopsis:When it comes to choosing winning stocks, there's simply no substitute for understanding the company: its strengths, weaknesses, business model, growth prospects, and true financial results. You could rely on Wall Street analysts to do this analysis for you, if you trusted them! Fortunately, there's a better alternative: do it yourself. Sounds too difficult or time-consuming? Not anymore! MSN Money columnist Harry Domash has identified shortcuts that streamline the entire research process, helping you consistently uncover the companies that offer the best prospects for stock growth and stocks to avoid like the plague. You'll find these powerful new shortcuts in only one place: the newest edition of the best-selling stock-picker's guide, Fire Your Stock Analyst. Domash reveals how to quickly assess every issue that drives stock performance, on and off the balance sheet. He presents step-by-step strategies for both value and growth-oriented investors, new examples drawn from today's markets, and a completely updated set of tools and free online resources. Along the way, Domash makes advanced analysis easier than it's ever been, presents new ways of quantifying stock risk, and covers issues most books simply ignore, including how to set your own target prices, and most important, when to sell. Synopsis:This is simply the world's most useful book for personal investors who want to rely less on the so-called "experts" and more on their own intelligence and knowledge. The author presents systematic value and growth strategies that draw on the best ideas from more than 20 of the world's leading money managers — and shows you how to implement each strategy step-by-step, using free or low-cost information available on the Internet. Domash introduces never-before-published advanced analysis strategies, shows how value investors really pick stocks, and presents new ways of quantifying a stock's risk. This book covers issues most books simply ignore, including how to evaluate a company's business plan and true financial strength, how to set your own target prices, and most important, when to sell . About the AuthorHARRY DOMASH publishes Winning Investing, a monthly stock and mutual fund advisory newsletter, and the Dividend Detective website for dividend investors. He also conducts fundamental analysis workshops and is a frequent speaker at the American Association of Individual Investors’ meetings. Domash’s investing tutorial columns appear in the San Francisco Chronicle and the Santa Cruz Sentinel newspapers and on the MSN Money website. His fundamental analysis columns have appeared in Business 2.0 magazine. He is the author of The Everything Online Investing Book: How to Use the Internet to Analyze Stocks & Mutual Funds (Adams Media Corporation) and runs the www.winninginvesting.com and www.dividenddetective.com sites for personal investors.
Table of ContentsAcknowledgments . . . xiii About the Author . . . xxii Introduction . . . xxiii PART I GETTING STARTED . . . 1 Chapter 1 The Analysis Process . . . 3 Identifying Potential Candidates . . . 3 Concentrate on the Strongest Candidates . . . 4 Quick Prequalify . . . 4 Detailed Analysis . . . 6 When to Sell . . . 10 Summary . . . 10 Chapter 2 Evaluating Risk . . . 11 Portfolio Risk . . . 11 Risk Factors . . . 12 Spotting Strong Industries in a Weak Market . . . 16 Company-Specific Risks . . . 17 Company-Specific Risks Described in Subsequent Chapters . . . 20 Summary . . . 23 Chapter 3 Screening . . . 25 Morningstar . . . 26 Google . . . 26 Zacks . . . 27 Portfolio123 . . . 27 Google Growth Screen . . . 28 Zacks Growth/Momentum Screen . . . 31 Portfolio123 Down & Out Value Stock Finder . . . 34 Portfolio123 Growth Stock Screen . . . 38 Zacks’ Bulletproof Stocks . . . 41 The Zen of Screening . . . 44 Premade Screens . . . 44 Summary . . . 45 PART II ANALYSIS TOOLS . . . 47 Chapter 4 Analysis Tool #1: Analyze Analysts’ Data . . . 49 Who Are the Analysts? . . . 50 Analysts’ Ratings . . . 51 “Sell” Is a Four-Letter Word . . . 51 Consensus Ratings . . . 53 Do Strong Buys Outperform Sells? . . . 54 Number of Analysts . . . 58 Sentiment Index . . . 59 Analysts’ Estimates . . . 61 Earnings Surprise . . . 66 Sales Forecasts . . . 67 Guidance Changes . . . 69 Research Reports . . . 69 Summary . . . 70 Chapter 5 Analysis Tool #2: Valuation . . . 71 Implied Growth . . . 72 Growth at a Reasonable Price . . . 76 Dividends . . . 80 Summary . . . 80 Chapter 6 Analysis Tool #3: Establish Target Prices . . . 81 The Process . . . 82 Summary . . . 90 Chapter 7 Analysis Tool #4: Industry Analysis . . . 91 The Business . . . 91 Industry Growth Outlook . . . 92 Analysts’ Forecasts Are Good Enough . . . 93 Convert Earnings Growth to Sales Growth . . . 93 Industry Concentration . . . 96 Picking Winners in an Emerging Fragmented Industry . . . 97 Industry Scuttlebutt . . . 101 Summary . . . 102 Chapter 8 Analysis Tool #5: Business Plan Analysis . . . 103 Introduction . . . 104 Overblown Competitive Advantages: Factors That Should Make a Difference But Often Don’t . . . 113 Business Plan Scorecard . . . 115 Summary . . . 115 Chapter 9 Analysis Tool #6: Evaluate Management Quality . . . 117 Key Executive and Board Quality . . . 117 Clean Accounting . . . 118 Earnings Growth Stability . . . 120 Stock Ownership . . . 122 Summary . . . 122 Chapter 10 Analysis Tool #7: Analyze Financial Fitness . . . 123 Financial Fitness Counts . . . 123 Pinpointing Financially Challenged Companies . . . 124 Simplify the Problem . . . 125 Detecting Potential Busted Cash Burners . . . 27 Detailed Fiscal Fitness Exam . . . 136 Bond Ratings . . . 150 Use Bond Prices to Identify Risky Debtors . . . 152 Summary . . . 153 Chapter 11 Analysis Tool #8: Profitability and Growth Analysis . . . 155 Where Do Earnings Come From? . . . 155 Analyzing Sales (Revenue) History . . . 161 Analyzing Margins . . . 166 Comparing Margins . . . 167 High Versus Low Margins . . . 172 Analyzing Overhead Expenses . . . 174 Profitability Ratios . . . 175 Cash Flow Analysis . . . 182 EBITDA Versus Operating Cash Flow . . . 189 Summary . . . 190 Chapter 12 Analysis Tool #9: Detect Red Flags . . . 191 Sales Growth Trends . . . 193 Accounts Receivables and Inventories . . . 197 Statement of Cash Flows . . . 204 Yellow Flags . . . 209 Summary . . . 212 Chapter 13 Analysis Tool #10: Ownership Considerations . . . 215 Institutional Ownership . . . 215 Insider Ownership . . . 218 Summary . . . 221 Chapter 14 Analysis Tool #11: Price Charts . . . 223 Trends . . . 223 Moving Averages . . . 225 Value Investors . . . 225 Growth Investors . . . 226 Avoid Downtrends . . . 227 Compare Short- and Long-Term Moving Averages . . . 227 The Risk Zone . . . 228 Chart Types . . . 229 Trading Volume . . . 230 Summary . . . 230 PART III THE ANALYSIS PROCESS . . . 231 Chapter 15 Quick Prequalify . . . 233 Concentrate on the Strongest Candidates . . . 233 Company Overview . . . 234 Valuation Ratios . . . 238 Real Revenues + Real Earnings + Real Growth = Real Stock . . . 241 Check the Buzz . . . 243 Summary . . . 244 Chapter 16 The Value Investing Process . . . 245 Concentrate on the Strongest Candidates . . . 245 Cycles . . . 247 Normalizing . . . 248 The Value Analysis Process . . . 248 When to Sell . . . 271 Summary . . . 273 Chapter 17 The Growth Investing Process . . . 275 Concentrate on the Strongest Candidates . . . 275 Growth Candidates . . . 278 The Process . . . 278 When to Sell . . . 315 Summary . . . 317 Chapter 18 Analysis Scorecards . . . 319 Value Stock Analysis Scorecard . . . 320 Growth Stock Analysis Scorecard . . . 326 PART IV APPENDIXES . . . 333 Appendix A Industry Information . . . 335 Appendix B Economic Data . . . 341 Appendix C Earnings Reports and Conference Calls . . . 343 Reported Earnings . . . 344 Summary . . . 346 Appendix D Detecting Scams, Frauds, and Pump and Dump . . . 347 Summary . . . 350 Appendix E How to Read Financial Statements . . . 351 Income Statement . . . 352 Balance Sheet . . . 353 Statement of Cash Flows . . . 355 Finding the Data . . . 357 Pro Forma Accounting Versus GAAP . . . 358 Appendix F Glossary . . . 359 Index . . . 367 What Our Readers Are SayingBe the first to add a comment for a chance to win!Product Details
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