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Yes, You Can Time the Market!by Ben Stein
Synopses & Reviews
Economist, financial fraud buster, writer, celebrity, and all-around smart guy Ben Stein teams up with investor advisor and psychologist Phil DeMuth to prove that Yes, You Can Time the Market! Though the common wisdom on Wall Street says market timing doesnt work, the authors sifted through a hundred years of stock market data and discovered that fundamental valuation metrics clearly show when the market is over- or under-priced. In fact, timing the market is just a matter of patiencesomething Wall Street doesnt have.
In this smart, simple book, Stein and DeMuth show you how to use the tools of technical analysis to determine the relative "cheapness" or "expensiveness" of the market as a whole at any given moment. They demonstrate that basic criteria like dividend yield and price to earnings ratio are like clocks that can tell you when its a good time to jump into an index fund, the stock market, or when youd be better off putting your money in bonds, real estate, or cash.
Youll find no gimmicks or get-rich-quick schemes here, just the information you need to tell a good investing climate from a bad one. Timing the market is safer and more profitable than keeping your money in stocks all the time. In fact, an investor using Stein and DeMuths system would have bought stocks in fifteen out of fifteen of the best investing years for long-term investors since 1926, while staying out of the market during the worst fifteen years. Market timing not only offers superior returns over the long run, but it can also protect you from short-term catastrophe.
Yes, You Can Time the Market! But dont just take the authors word for it, see for yourself with charts, graphs, tables, and a wealth of stock market data. Stein and DeMuth have done all the heavy lifting for you. All you have to do is follow their advice and look forward to a more prosperous future. Written for those who want to preserve capital and build wealth steadily, this book offers prudent, bedrock advice for investors who can no longer afford to play games with their money.
"This is no get-rich-quick scheme, merely a case being made to, in essence, treat the Street like many fans treat baseball: work the numbers...where was this book when we needed it? Publishers Weekly
"Stein's popularity and the use of his face on the book's cover may draw readers beyond the usual investment crowd, though some may find this joke-free treatment a bit too technical. Still, it is a competently written, well-argued case for a sensible investment approach and is quite suitable for academic and larger public libraries. Library Journal
"?Buy and hold? makes sense for the average investor in stocks. Even better, say Stein and DeMuth, is to buy only when prices are low and hold when prices are high, keeping accumulating savings in Treasuries while waiting for ?low? prices. They define ?low? and ?high? prices by historical experience. An interesting and thoughtful analysis." Professor Milton Friedman University of Chicago, Hoover Center Nobel Prize Winner in Economics, 1976
"Wall Street, prepare yourself. Ben and Phil hit the nail on the head with their insightful guide to investing. No gimmicks, no games, just tapping the true power of economics to make sensible investment decisions. Add to that the authors? dry wit, and this handbook is a must-read for investors small and large." Diane C. Swonk Director of Economics, Chief Economist Senior Vice President, Bank One Corporation
"The logic and reasoning are persuasive. Stein and DeMuth buttress them with evidence, lots of it. The term ?valuable? properly applies to the guidance of the conclusions." C. Lowell Harriss Professor Emeritus of Economics Columbia University
"How refreshing to read commonsense advice about the stock market! Stein and DeMuth?s findings are both verifiable and free of quantitative trickery. What?s more, their writing is as clear and straightforward as the methods they recommend." Martin Fridson author, It Was a Very Good Year: Extraordinary Moments in Stock Market History
Economist, actor, author, and former quiz show host Ben Stein teamed up with investment psychologist Phil DeMuth to examine a century of stock market data and discovered a profound and original investment truth: Yes, you can time the market! In their instant investment classic Yes, You Can Time the Market!, Stein and DeMuth show investors simple, readily available measurements that tell them when it's time to invest in stocks, bonds, real estate, or cash. Written for the investor who wants to preserve capital and build wealth steadily, this book offers prudent, bedrock advice for anyone who can no longer afford to play games with their money.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 185-186) and index.
About the Author
BEN STEIN, host of Comedy Central?s Emmy Award?winning game show Win Ben Stein?s Money, is a Renaissance man for the new millennium. An economist and humorist, investor, lawyer, and actor, Stein has successfully balanced a professional life that encompasses his many diverse interests. He is the author of several books on finance and his essays and columns have appeared in such publications as The Wall Street Journal, Barron?s, Forbes, the American Spectator, Los Angeles magazine, New York magazine, and the Washington Post.
PHIL DeMUTH is an investment advisor and PhD psychologist who has a longstanding interest in the stock market and has written for The Wall Street Journal and Barron?s, as well as Human Behavior and Psychology Today. His opinions have been quoted on TheStreet.com and in Fortune magazine.
Table of Contents
Chapter One. The Impossibility of Market Timing.
Chapter Two. The Power of Price.
Chapter Three. The Price/Earnings Ratio.
Chapter Four. Dividend Yields and Market Timing.
Chapter Five. Fundamental Value.
Chapter Six. Bonds. Price-to-Cash Flow, Price-to-Sales.
Chapter Seven. Combining Factors for Superior Returns.
Chapter Eight. Using Market Timing.
Chapter Nine. Looking Forward: A Note of Caution.
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