Think You Know Baseball? Think Again. The Red Sox finally won a World Series, in a triumph of unconventional wisdom. They rethought the batting order and committed to Johnny Damon as lead-off. Saw the talent in David Ortiz that other teams overlooked. Had the courage to trade one of the game's top shortstops for the good of the team. They knocked over the sacred cows of RBIs, sacrifice bunts, the hit-and-run, and hewed to the new thinking about pitch count-- allowing Pedro Martinez, arguably baseball's best pitcher ever, to excel.- Weaving statistics, narrative, personalities, and anecdote, MIND GAME reveals exactly how this group of" idiots, " led by Theo Epstein and Terry Francona, was in fact the smartest team in the league, and revolutionizes the thinking fan's understanding of how baseball games are really won and lost.

and#8220;This is the book about the 90% of the game thatand#8217;s half mental. Itand#8217;s the smartest analysis of a smart team yet written.and#8221;

and#8212; Allen Barra, The Wall Street Journal

Steven Goldman is the creator of the long-running Pinstriped BibleYou Could Look It Upcolumn for BaseballProspectus.com, a contributor to the Baseball Prospectusannual book, and the author of the biography Forging Genius: the Making of Casey Stengel. His work has also been seen in Yankees Magazine, theNew York Sun, and Web sites too numerous to mention. Steven lives in New Jersey with his wife, Stefanie, daughter, Sarah, and, by the time you read this, a boy to be named later.Baseball Prospectus Team of Experts on Baseball Talent includes, among others, Gary Huckabay, the founder of Baseball Prospectus; Chris Kahrl, a sports editor who lives in Washington, D.C.; and Dave Pease, who roots for Ryan Klesko in San Diego. Together, the roster of Baseball Prospectus writers consult to 26 of the 30 major league baseball teams.

CONTENTS

Acknowledgments vii

A Comforting Note About Statistics x

Introduction: A Brain Surgeon Walks Into a Bar xii

Prologue xiv

1 The Banality of Incompetence, 1919and#8211;20021

Extra Innings: How Important Is a Teamand#8217;s Best Player?

The Noncurse of the Grey Eagle: A Case Study 14

2 Shopping for Winners, November 25, 200317

Extra Innings: Dan Duquette: Failed Epstein Prototype 30

3 The A-Rod Advantage, Novemberand#8211;December 200335

4 Squeezing the Merchandise, March 7 and March 24, 200447

5 Varieties of Relief, April 8and#8211;9, 200463

Extra Innings: Calvin Schiraldi: Industrial-Strength Fluke 73

6 Walking, Wounded, April 16and#8211;18, 200477

7 Arms and the Man, April 25, 200485

8 and#8220;You Want Me to Hit Like a Little Bitch?and#8221; May 5, 200491

9 The Caveman Cleans Up, May 21, 2004105

10 The Holy Gospel of On-Base Percentage, May 23, 2004113

Extra Innings: On-Base-Percentage Scripture 120

11 A Streak of Insignificance, May 29and#8211;June 8, 2004125

12 Nomarand#8217;s Spring and Regression to the Mean, June 9, 2004141

13 Better Winning Through Chemistry, July 1and#8211;3, 2004151

Extra Innings: The Fanning Fallacy 157

14 Brothers of the Mind Game, July 6and#8211;8, 2004161

15 Basebrawl, July 24, 2004169

Extra Innings: Draft-Wise but Career-Foolish 178

16 Nomargate, July 31, 2004183

Extra Innings: Hail and Farewell to the Holy Trinity = 192

17 Invulnerable, August 16and#8211;September 11, 2004197

Extra Innings: Bicoastal Blues? 202

18 Cracking the Rivera Code, September 17and#8211;19, 2004209

19 Deconstructing Pedro, September 24and#8211;26, 2004217

A Case Study: Pedro, Without Qualification 218

Extra Innings: and#8220;Why Donand#8217;t We Just Wake Up the Bambino and Iand#8217;ll Drill Him.and#8221; 228

20 Reframing History, October 5and#8211;8, 2004231

21 Insult and Injury, October 16, 2004 241

22 The 510-Square-Inch War Zone, October 17and#8211;18, 2004249

23 Beat the Devil, October 19and#8211;20, 2004261

24 The Substance of Style, October 23and#8211;27, 2004269

25 Beat the Yankees, Be the Yankees, October 28, 2004 277

Epilogue 285

Appendix I: Yawkey and Post-Yawkey Red Sox General Managers 291

Appendix II: The Complete List of Baseball Brawls

from Stengel and Weinart to A-Rod and Varitek 293

Appendix III: Glossary and Statistical Leaders 300

Notes 335

About the Authors 343

Index 347