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The Map and the Territory: Risk, Human Nature, and the Future of Forecasting

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The Map and the Territory: Risk, Human Nature, and the Future of Forecasting Cover

 

Synopses & Reviews

Publisher Comments:

Like all of us, though few so visibly, Alan Greenspan was forced by the financial crisis of 2008 to question some fundamental assumptions about risk management and economic forecasting. No one with any meaningful role in economic decision making in the world saw beforehand the storm for what it was. How had our models so utterly failed us?

To answer this question, Alan Greenspan embarked on a rigorous and far-reaching multiyear examination of how Homo economicus predicts the economic future, and how it can predict it better. Economic risk is a fact of life in every realm, from home to business to government at all levels. Whether were conscious of it or not, we make wagers on the future virtually every day, one way or another. Very often, however, were steering by out-of-date maps, when were not driven by factors entirely beyond our conscious control.

The Map and the Territory is nothing less than an effort to update our forecasting conceptual grid. It integrates the history of economic prediction, the new work of behavioral economists, and the fruits of the authors own remarkable career to offer a thrillingly lucid and empirically based grounding in what we can

know about economic forecasting and what we cant.The book explores how culture is and isn't destiny and probes what we can predict about the world's biggest looming challenges, from debt and the reform of the welfare state to natural disasters in an age of global warming.

No map is the territory, but Greenspans approach, grounded in his trademark rigor, wisdom, and unprecedented context, ensures that this particular map will assist in safe journeys down many different roads, traveled by individuals, businesses, and the state.

About the Author

Alan Greenspan was born in 1926 and reared in the Washington Heights neighborhood of New York City. After studying the clarinet at Juilliard and working as a professional musician, he earned his B.A., M.A., and Ph.D. in economics from New York University. In 1954, he cofounded the economic consulting firm Townsend-Greenspan and Co. From 1974 to 1977, he served as chair of the Council of Economic Advisors under President Gerald Ford. In 1987, President Ronald Reagan appointed him chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, a position he held until his retirement in 2006. He is the author of the number one New York Times bestseller The Age of Turbulence.

Product Details

ISBN:
9781594204814
Author:
Greenspan, Alan
Publisher:
Penguin Press
Author:
Greenspan, Alan
Author:
Hillgartner, Malcolm
Subject:
Economics - General
Subject:
Business Writing
Edition Description:
Paperback / softback
Publication Date:
20131031
Binding:
Paperback
Grade Level:
from 12
Language:
English
Illustrations:
Graphs throughout
Pages:
400
Dimensions:
8.44 x 5.5 in 1 lb
Age Level:
from 18

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