A Path Out of the Desert: A Grand Strategy for America in the Middle East

“A persuasive but painful solution for dealing with the mess in the Middle East.” –Kirkus

The greatest danger to Americas peace and prosperity, notes leading Middle East policy analyst Kenneth M. Pollack, lies in the political repression, economic stagnation, and cultural conflict running rampant in Arab and Muslim nations. By inflaming political unrest and empowering terrorists, these forces pose a direct threat to Americas economy and national security. The impulse for America might be to turn its back on the Middle East in frustration over the George W. Bush administrations mishandling of the Iraq War and other engagements with Arab and Muslim countries. But such a move, Pollack asserts, will only exacerbate problems. He counters with the idea that we must continue to make the Middle East a priority in our policy, but in a humbler, more humane, more realistic, and more cohesive way.

Pollack argues that Washingtons greatest sin in its relations with the Middle East has been its persistent unwillingness to make the sustained and patient effort needed to help the people of the Middle East overcome the crippling societal problems facing their governments and societies. As a result, the United States has never had a workable comprehensive policy in the region, just a skein of half-measures intended either to avoid entanglement or to contain the influence of the Soviet Union.

Beyond identifying the stagnation of civic life in Arab and Muslim states and the cumulative effect of our misguided policies, Pollack offers a long-term strategy to ameliorate the political, economic, and social problems that underlie the regions many crises. Through his suggested policies, America can engage directly with the governments of the Middle East and indirectly with its people by means of cultural exchange, commerce, and other “soft” approaches. He carefully examines each of the regions most contested areas, including Iraq, Iran, Syria, and Lebanon, as well as the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, and explains how the United States can address each through mutually reinforcing policies.

At a time when the nation will be facing critical decisions about our continued presence in Iraq and Afghanistan, A Path Out of the Desert is guaranteed to stimulate debate about Americas humanitarian, diplomatic, and military involvement in the Middle East.

"Former CIA analyst Pollack (The Threatening Storm) has devised an eloquent argument in favor of long-term American involvement in Middle East politics, arguing that American security and prosperity is contingent upon an orderly and democratic Middle East. A self-professed 'liberal internationalist,' the author advocates sustained engagement rather than a foreign policy that has been characterized by 'reluctance' and is consistently 'episodic, tried on the cheap, and shortsighted.' Pollack keeps his sweeping survey lucid and readable and is refreshingly frank with the reader ('let's not kid ourselves: America's first and most important interest in the Middle East is the region's oil exports'). This book provides a thorough — if disheartening — diagnosis of the region's ailments — the burgeoning unemployment, poverty and population growth — and analyzes how repressive governments, a hidebound education system and a self-serving bureaucracy have destroyed the region's potential for foreign investment. Pollack's 'grand strategy' — a decades-long commitment similar to the Marshall Plan to transform despotisms into democracies that promote economic expansion — should stimulate animated and necessary debate and a recasting of America's role in the Middle East. (July 22)" Publishers Weekly (Copyright Reed Business Information, Inc.)

Kenneth M. Pollack, a Middle East expert at the Brookings Institution, has written an authoritative new book that spells out the full range of threats the United States faces in the region and offers prudent advice on how to defuse them. The problem is, it's hard to square this work with the influential book he wrote in 2002 called "The Threatening Storm: The Case for Invading Iraq."

... Washington Post Book Review (read the entire Washington Post review) Pollack is persuasive in his new book, but it helps to have a touch of amnesia. Those with a working memory may recall that six years ago, Pollack said there was too much hand-wringing about the potential pitfalls of invading Iraq. "Those who argue that the United States would inevitably become the target of unhappy Iraqis generally also assume that the Iraqi population would be hostile to U.S. forces from the outset," he wrote. "However, the best evidence we have suggests that the Iraqi people would be pleased to be liberated."

He also predicted Iraq would pay for its own reconstruction with oil. "It is unimaginable," he declared in "The Threatening Storm," "that the United States would have to contribute hundreds of billions of dollars and highly unlikely that we would have to contribute even tens of billions of dollars."

In his new book, Pollack acknowledges his miscalculations and excoriates the Bush administration for bungling Iraq's reconstruction. Still, the irony is tough to ignore: "A Path Out of the Desert" comes from the same author who advocated charging into the sands of Mesopotamia.

"The fiasco of regime change in Iraq should make Washington very reticent about trying to overthrow another Middle Eastern autocracy," a more circumspect Pollack now writes. "Consequently, the regimes will remain, and they will remain the most powerful forces in their societies for many years to come."

Pollack's new book immediately brought to mind "Now They Tell Us," a highly amusing routine on comedian Jon Stewart's "The Daily Show." It typically features a prominent Washington figure presenting an ominous warning about Iraq, which is immediately followed by archival footage of the same person offering an upbeat assessment several years ago.

Sure enough, Pollack actually appeared on "The Daily Show" on July 16 to promote this book. At the end of the interview, Stewart gently ribbed him, asking Pollack if he wished he had added "I'm just kidding" to the title of his earlier work.

Once the reader gets past the U-turn on Iraq, there is much to recommend "A Path Out of the Desert." Pollack provides a grand tour of the Middle East and dissects its pathologies, including booming numbers of jobless youth. In one startling example, he notes that in several Arab countries, college graduates have unemployment rates well above the national average. In Morocco, the most extreme case, the overall unemployment rate is 7.7 percent; for those with higher education it is 26.8 percent. "Many of the worst failings of the Arab educational systems," he writes, "are manifested in how poorly they prepare both the average person and the members of the elite to compete in the globalized economy."

Pollack views reform in the Arab states as a long, hard slog that will be measured in decades rather than election cycles. The United States needs to nudge the process along steadily with, among other things, dollops of financial aid. "Think of the hundreds of billions of dollars that the United States is now sinking into the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan," he writes. "Doesn't it make sense to put a fraction of that, perhaps as much as $5 billion to $10 billion per year, into foreign aid programs for the Muslim Middle East ... and hopefully head off future wars?"

A former CIA analyst and National Security Council staffer, Pollack frames key issues as an analyst offering options for a policymaker. He refrains from making any bold, short-term policy prescriptions because he does not think the region can be transformed in one stroke.

The United States needs to pursue a middle path stressing persistence, moderation and gradual change, Pollack asserts. He proposes a "Hippocratic oath test" for U.S. policies to ensure that they "do no harm to the core goals and methods of the grand strategy," by which he means an enduring commitment to remain fully engaged in the Middle East to help ease crises or, better yet, prevent them.

U.S. leaders should broker dialogue between Israelis and Palestinians even when peace is distant, he says. Washington should look for signs of rapprochement with Iran; the military option is too risky. America and China share an interest in dependable oil exports, and this offers the possibility of cooperation instead of rivalry in the Mideast.

Pollack's conclusion is sobering: With great (and patient) effort, the United States can hope to influence, but not fix, the unstable Middle East. If that sounds less than satisfying, he warns, the alternatives are worse.

Now he tells us.

Greg Myre, an adjunct scholar at the Middle East Institute, covered the Middle East for the New York Times and the Associated Press and is writing a book about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Reviewed by Greg Myre, Washington Post Book World (Copyright 2006 Washington Post Book World Service/Washington Post Writers Group)
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Bestselling author Pollack explains why the Middle East is so important to America's vital interests and explores the great political and social problems that plague the region and foster terrorism.

Kenneth M. Pollack is the director of research at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution. From 1995 to 1996 and from 1999 to 2001, he served as director for Persian Gulf affairs at the National Security Council, where he was the principal working-level official responsible for implementation of U.S. policy toward Iraq, Iran, and the states of the Arabian Peninsula. Prior to his time in the Clinton administration, he spent seven years in the CIA as a Persian Gulf military analyst. He is the author of The Threatening Storm, The Persian Puzzle, Arabs at War, and Things Fall Apart. He lives in Washington, D.C.