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Good Thinking: The Foundations of Probability and Its Applications

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Good Thinking: The Foundations of Probability and Its Applications Cover

 

Synopses & Reviews

Publisher Comments:

These sparkling essays by a gifted thinker offer philosophical views on the roots of statistical interference. A pioneer in the early development of computing, Irving J. Good made fundamental contributions to the theory of Bayesian inference and was a key member of the team that broke the German Enigma code during World War II. Good maintains that a grasp of probability is essential to answering both practical and philosophical questions. This compilation of his most accessible works concentrates on philosophical rather than mathematical subjects, ranging from rational decisions, randomness, and the nature of probability to operational research, artificial intelligence, cognitive psychology, and chess. 

These twenty-three self-contained articles represent the author's work in a variety of fields but are unified by a consistently rational approach. Five closely related sections explore Bayesian rationality; probability; corroboration, hypothesis testing, and simplicity; information and surprise; and causality and explanation. A comprehensive index, abundant references, and a bibliography refer readers to classic and modern literature. Good's thought-provoking observations and memorable examples provide scientists, mathematicians, and historians of science with a coherent view of probability and its applications.

Book News Annotation:

This is a reprint of a collection of 23 essays by Good (1916-2009) on philosophical perspectives on statistical inference originally published by University of Minnesota Press in 1983. Good, a statistician and cryptologist, was one of the primary members of the team that cracked the German Enigma Code during World War II. He also advised director Stanley Kubrick on the scientific issues involved in the landmark film 2001: A Space Odyssey. While technical, the collection includes his most accessible work on topics such as randomness, artificial intelligence, and rational decisions. Annotation ©2010 Book News, Inc., Portland, OR (booknews.com)

Synopsis:

This in-depth treatment of probability theory by a famous British statistician explores Keynesian principles and surveys such topics as Bayesian rationality, corroboration, hypothesis testing, and mathematical tools for induction and simplicity. 1983 edition.

Table of Contents

Acknowledgments
Introduction
Part I. Bayesian Rationality
1. Rational Decisions
2. Twenty-seven Principles of Rationality
3. 46656 Varieties of Bayesians
4. The Bayesian Influence, or How to Sweep Subjectivism under the Carpet
Part II. Probability
5. Which Comes First, Probability or Statistics
6. Kinds of Probability
7. Sublective Probability as the Measure of a Non-measurable Set
8. Random Thoughts about Randomness
9. Some History of the Hierarchical Bayesian Methodology
10. Dynamic Probability, Computer Chess, and the Measurement of Knowledge
Part III . Corroboration, Hypothesis Testing, Induction, and Simplicity
11. The White Shoe is a Red Herring
12. The White Shoe qua Herring is Pink
13. A Sublective Evaluation of Bode's Law and an "Objective" Test  for Approximate
       Numerical Rationality
14.Some Logic and History of Hypothesis Testing
15. Explicativity, Corroboration, and the Relative Odds of Hypothesis
Part IV Information and Surprise
16. The Appropriate Mathematical Tools for Describing and Measuring Uncertainty
17. On the Principle of Total Evidence
18.A Little Learning Can Be Dangerous
19. The Probabilistic Explication of Information, Evidence, Surprise, Causality,
        Explanation, and Utility
20. Is the Size of Our Galaxy Surprising?
Part V. Causality and Explanation
21. A Causal Calculus
22. A Simplification in the "Causal Calculus"
23. Explicativity: A Mathematical Theory of Explanations with Statistical Applications
References
Bibliography
Sublect Index of the Bibliography
Name Index
Sublect Index
 
     

Product Details

ISBN:
9780486474380
Author:
Good, Irving John
Publisher:
Dover Publications
Author:
Mathematics
Author:
D
Author:
Irving John Goo
Subject:
Probabilities
Subject:
Probability & Statistics - General
Subject:
Mathematics | Probability and Statistics
Subject:
Statistics
Edition Description:
Trade Paper
Series:
Dover Books on Mathematics
Publication Date:
20091131
Binding:
TRADE PAPER
Language:
English
Illustrations:
Y
Pages:
352
Dimensions:
8.5 x 5.38 in 0.83 lb

Related Subjects


Science and Mathematics » Mathematics » Probability and Statistics » General
Science and Mathematics » Mathematics » Probability and Statistics » Probability Theory
Science and Mathematics » Mathematics » Probability and Statistics » Statistics

Good Thinking: The Foundations of Probability and Its Applications New Trade Paper
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Product details 352 pages Dover Publications - English 9780486474380 Reviews:
"Synopsis" by ,
This in-depth treatment of probability theory by a famous British statistician explores Keynesian principles and surveys such topics as Bayesian rationality, corroboration, hypothesis testing, and mathematical tools for induction and simplicity. 1983 edition.
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