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Good Thinking: The Foundations of Probability and Its Applicationsby Irving John Good
Synopses & ReviewsPublisher Comments:These sparkling essays by a gifted thinker offer philosophical views on the roots of statistical interference. A pioneer in the early development of computing, Irving J. Good made fundamental contributions to the theory of Bayesian inference and was a key member of the team that broke the German Enigma code during World War II. Good maintains that a grasp of probability is essential to answering both practical and philosophical questions. This compilation of his most accessible works concentrates on philosophical rather than mathematical subjects, ranging from rational decisions, randomness, and the nature of probability to operational research, artificial intelligence, cognitive psychology, and chess. These twentythree selfcontained articles represent the author's work in a variety of fields but are unified by a consistently rational approach. Five closely related sections explore Bayesian rationality; probability; corroboration, hypothesis testing, and simplicity; information and surprise; and causality and explanation. A comprehensive index, abundant references, and a bibliography refer readers to classic and modern literature. Good's thoughtprovoking observations and memorable examples provide scientists, mathematicians, and historians of science with a coherent view of probability and its applications. Book News Annotation:This is a reprint of a collection of 23 essays by Good (19162009) on philosophical perspectives on statistical inference originally published by University of Minnesota Press in 1983. Good, a statistician and cryptologist, was one of the primary members of the team that cracked the German Enigma Code during World War II. He also advised director Stanley Kubrick on the scientific issues involved in the landmark film 2001: A Space Odyssey. While technical, the collection includes his most accessible work on topics such as randomness, artificial intelligence, and rational decisions. Annotation ©2010 Book News, Inc., Portland, OR (booknews.com)
Synopsis:This indepth treatment of probability theory by a famous British statistician explores Keynesian principles and surveys such topics as Bayesian rationality, corroboration, hypothesis testing, and mathematical tools for induction and simplicity. 1983 edition. Table of ContentsAcknowledgments Introduction Part I. Bayesian Rationality 1. Rational Decisions 2. Twentyseven Principles of Rationality 3. 46656 Varieties of Bayesians 4. The Bayesian Influence, or How to Sweep Subjectivism under the Carpet Part II. Probability 5. Which Comes First, Probability or Statistics 6. Kinds of Probability 7. Sublective Probability as the Measure of a Nonmeasurable Set 8. Random Thoughts about Randomness 9. Some History of the Hierarchical Bayesian Methodology 10. Dynamic Probability, Computer Chess, and the Measurement of Knowledge Part III . Corroboration, Hypothesis Testing, Induction, and Simplicity 11. The White Shoe is a Red Herring 12. The White Shoe qua Herring is Pink 13. A Sublective Evaluation of Bode's Law and an "Objective" Test for Approximate Numerical Rationality 14.Some Logic and History of Hypothesis Testing 15. Explicativity, Corroboration, and the Relative Odds of Hypothesis Part IV Information and Surprise 16. The Appropriate Mathematical Tools for Describing and Measuring Uncertainty 17. On the Principle of Total Evidence 18.A Little Learning Can Be Dangerous 19. The Probabilistic Explication of Information, Evidence, Surprise, Causality, Explanation, and Utility 20. Is the Size of Our Galaxy Surprising? Part V. Causality and Explanation 21. A Causal Calculus 22. A Simplification in the "Causal Calculus" 23. Explicativity: A Mathematical Theory of Explanations with Statistical Applications References Bibliography Sublect Index of the Bibliography Name Index Sublect Index What Our Readers Are SayingBe the first to add a comment for a chance to win!Product Details
Related SubjectsScience and Mathematics » Mathematics » Probability and Statistics » General Science and Mathematics » Mathematics » Probability and Statistics » Probability Theory Science and Mathematics » Mathematics » Probability and Statistics » Statistics 

