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The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a New Section: "On Robustness and Fragility"

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The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a New Section: "On Robustness and Fragility" Cover

ISBN13: 9780812973815
ISBN10: 081297381x
Condition: Standard
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Synopses & Reviews

Publisher Comments:

A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.

Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we dont know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.”

For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we dont know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them.

Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book–itself a black swan.

From the Hardcover edition.

Synopsis:

A young scholar tells the story of the physicists and mathematicians who created the models that have become the basis of modern finance and argues that these models are the solution toand#8212;not the source ofand#8212;our current economic woes.

Synopsis:

andldquo;Weatherall probes an epochal shift in financial strategizing with lucidity, explaining how it occurred and what it means for modern finance.andrdquo;andmdash;Peter Galison, author of Einsteinandrsquo;s Clocks, Poincareandrsquo;s Maps

After the economic meltdown of 2008, many pundits placed the blame on andldquo;complex financial instrumentsandrdquo; and the physicists and mathematicians who dreamed them up. But how is it that physicists came to drive Wall Street? And were their ideas really the cause of the collapse?

In The Physics of Wall Street, the physicist James Weatherall answers both of these questions. He tells the story of how physicists first moved to finance, bringing science to bear on some of the thorniest problems in economics, from bubbles to options pricing. The problem isnandrsquo;t simply that economic models have limitations and can break down under certain conditions, but that at the time of the meltdown those models were in the hands of people who either didnandrsquo;t understand their purpose or didnandrsquo;t care. It was a catastrophic misuse of science. However, Weatherall argues that the solution is not to give up on the models but to make them better. Both persuasive and accessible, The Physics of Wall Street is riveting history that will change how we think about our economic future.

About the Author

Nassim Nicholas Taleb has devoted his life to immersing himself in problems of luck, randomness, human error, probability, and the philosophy of knowledge. He managed to transform his interests into three successful careers, as a man of letters, businessman-trader-risk manager, and university professor. Although he spends most of his time as a flâneur, meditating in cafés across the planet, he is currently Distinguished Professor at New York University's Polytechnic Institute and Principal of Universa. His books Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan have been published in 31 languages. He is widely recognized as the foremost thinker on probability and uncertainty. Taleb lives mostly in New York.

What Our Readers Are Saying

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Average customer rating based on 1 comment:

sandybuster, September 1, 2011 (view all comments by sandybuster)
This is a complicated quirky book. I have had to put it down many times (I'm not finished yet) because I need to digest the information I've read. Taleb's theory is so foreign to what we've been taught and how to think. Events are more random and less logical than we believe.
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Product Details

ISBN:
9780812973815
Author:
Taleb, Nassim Nicholas
Publisher:
Random House Trade
Author:
Weatherall, James Owen
Subject:
Management - General
Subject:
Information Theory
Subject:
General
Subject:
General Business & Economics
Subject:
Business management
Subject:
Corporate Finance
Subject:
Economics - General
Subject:
economics;probability;non-fiction;philosophy;statistics;business;finance;science;randomness;uncertainty;psychology;risk;mathematics;forecasting;investing;information theory;epistemology;sociology;history;chance;economy;decision making;popular science;soci
Edition Description:
Trade paper
Series:
Incerto
Publication Date:
20100531
Binding:
TRADE PAPER
Grade Level:
General/trade
Language:
English
Illustrations:
5 graphs
Pages:
480
Dimensions:
8 x 5.31 in 0.53 lb

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Related Subjects

Business » General
Business » Human Resource Management
Business » Management
Business » Marketing
Engineering » Communications » Information Theory
History and Social Science » Economics » General
History and Social Science » Sociology » General

The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a New Section: "On Robustness and Fragility" Used Trade Paper
0 stars - 0 reviews
$8.50 In Stock
Product details 480 pages Random House Trade - English 9780812973815 Reviews:
"Synopsis" by , A young scholar tells the story of the physicists and mathematicians who created the models that have become the basis of modern finance and argues that these models are the solution toand#8212;not the source ofand#8212;our current economic woes.
"Synopsis" by ,
andldquo;Weatherall probes an epochal shift in financial strategizing with lucidity, explaining how it occurred and what it means for modern finance.andrdquo;andmdash;Peter Galison, author of Einsteinandrsquo;s Clocks, Poincareandrsquo;s Maps

After the economic meltdown of 2008, many pundits placed the blame on andldquo;complex financial instrumentsandrdquo; and the physicists and mathematicians who dreamed them up. But how is it that physicists came to drive Wall Street? And were their ideas really the cause of the collapse?

In The Physics of Wall Street, the physicist James Weatherall answers both of these questions. He tells the story of how physicists first moved to finance, bringing science to bear on some of the thorniest problems in economics, from bubbles to options pricing. The problem isnandrsquo;t simply that economic models have limitations and can break down under certain conditions, but that at the time of the meltdown those models were in the hands of people who either didnandrsquo;t understand their purpose or didnandrsquo;t care. It was a catastrophic misuse of science. However, Weatherall argues that the solution is not to give up on the models but to make them better. Both persuasive and accessible, The Physics of Wall Street is riveting history that will change how we think about our economic future.

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