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The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-But Some Don'tby Nate Silver
Synopses & Reviews
Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger — all by the time he was thirty. The New York Times now publishes FiveThirtyEight.com, where Silver is one of the nation’s most influential political forecasters.
Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.
In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good — or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary — and dangerous — science.
Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.
With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.
"Despite the fact that there is more information about everything from finance to professional sports available than ever before, predictions 'may be more prone to failure' in this 'era of Big Data.' Balancing technical detail and thoughtful analysis with fluid prose, statistician Silver (FiveThirtyEight) picks apart the many ways in which predictions in various fields have been flawed, while suggesting approaches that could improve the practice. The catastrophic miscalculations on the part of financial lending agencies that led to the recession of 2008 arose for the same types of reasons that caused baseball scouts to undervalue Boston Red Sox all-star player Dustin Pedroia or feed into a political pundit's flawed forecast: overconfidence in models based on oversimplified principles and unrealistic initial assumptions. Though there is no simple solution, a Bayesian methodology, in which prior beliefs are taken into account and initial assumptions constantly revised, would lead to more accurate predictive models. Effective prediction requires, according to Silver, 'the serenity to accept the things we cannot predict, the courage to predict the things we can, and the wisdom to know the difference.' Agent: Sydelle Kramer, The Susan Rabiner Literary Agency. (Oct.)" Publishers Weekly (Starred Review) Copyright PWxyz, LLC. All rights reserved.
"Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century." Rachel Maddow, author of Drift
"Mr. Silver, just 34, is an expert at finding signal in noise... Lively prose — from energetic to outraged...illustrates his do's and dont's through a series of interesting essays that examine how predictions are made in fields including chess, baseball, weather forecasting, earthquake analysis and politics...[the] chapter on global warming is one of the most objective and honest analyses I've seen...even the noise makes for a good read." New York Times
"Not so different in spirit from the way public intellectuals like John Kenneth Galbraith once shaped discussions of economic policy and public figures like Walter Cronkite helped sway opinion on the Vietnam War...could turn out to be one of the more momentous books of the decade." New York Times Book Review
"A serious treatise about the craft of prediction — without academic mathematics — cheerily aimed at lay readers. Silver's coverage is polymathic, ranging from poker and earthquakes to climate change and terrorism." New York Review of Books
"Mr. Silver's breezy style makes even the most difficult statistical material accessible. What is more, his arguments and examples are painstakingly researched." Wall Street Journal
"Nate Silver is the Kurt Cobain of statistics....His ambitious new book, The Signal and the Noise, is a practical handbook and a philosophical manifesto in one, following the theme of prediction through a series of case studies ranging from hurricane tracking to professional poker to counterterrorism. It will be a supremely valuable resource for anyone who wants to make good guesses about the future, or who wants to assess the guesses made by others. In other words, everyone." The Boston Globe
"Silver delivers an improbably breezy read on what is essentially a primer on making predictions." Washington Post
"The Signal and the Noise is many things — an introduction to the Bayesian theory of probability, a meditation on luck and character, a commentary on poker's insights into life — but it's most important function is its most basic and absolutely necessary one right now: a guide to detecting and avoiding bullshit dressed up as data....What is most refreshing... is its humility. Sometimes we have to deal with not knowing, and we need somebody to tell us that." Esquire
"[An] entertaining popularization of a subject that scares many people off....Silver's journey from consulting to baseball analytics to professional poker to political prognosticating is very much that of a restless and curious mind. And this, more than number-crunching, is where real forecasting prowess comes from." Slate
"Nate Silver serves as a sort of Zen master to American election-watchers....In the spirit of Nassim Nicholas Taleb's widely read The Black Swan, Mr. Silver asserts that humans are overconfident in their predictive abilities, that they struggle to think in probabilistic terms and build models that do not allow for uncertainty." The Economist
"Silver explores our attempts at forecasting stocks, storms, sports, and anything else not set in stone." Wired
"The Signal and the Noise is essential reading in the era of Big Data that touches every business, every sports event, and every policymaker." Forbes.com
"Laser sharp. Surprisingly, statistics in Silvers hands is not without some fun." Smithsonian magazine
"A substantial, wide-ranging, and potentially important gauntlet of probabilistic thinking based on actual data thrown at the feet of a culture determined to sweep away silly liberal notions like 'facts.'" The Village Voice
About the Author
Nate Silver is a statistician, writer, and founder of the New York Times political blog FiveThirtyEight.com. Silver also developed PECOTA, a system for forecasting baseball performance that was bought by Baseball Prospectus. He was named one of the world’s 100 Most Influential People by Time magazine. He lives in Brooklyn, New York.
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