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Other titles in the Wiley Trading series:

Wiley Trading #591: Trading Systems and Methods, + Website

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Synopses & Reviews

Publisher Comments:

When it comes to the last word on trading systems, one name stands out from the rest, internationally: Perry J. Kaufman. Not coincidentally, for nearly thirty years, the book that traders of every ilk—from first-time day traders to veteran position traders—have turned to for in-depth, how-to information on the latest and best practices in trading systems has been Trading Systems and Methods.

That's because, with each successive edition, Perry Kaufman went to extraordinary lengths, personally reviewing, testing, and comparing scores of technical indicators, charting techniques, algorithms, trading software, and trading systems. He carefully winnowed out those that had outlived their usefulness and he introduced newer tools and techniques, more suitable to the trading environment of the moment. All done in an effort to bring his readers the freshest, most comprehensive, and authoritative coverage of systematic trading strategies, tools, and techniques.

In keeping with that tradition, the Fifth Edition of the classic guide has been substantially revised and updated for the realities of a post-financial crisis world. It now features expanded coverage of risk control—from the level of the individual trade to the portfolio, and everything in between. It also contains dozens of updated and entirely new charts and examples, along with more programs and spreadsheets. And the companion website has been fully updated with TradeStation, Version 9 (with accompanying source code) and Excel 2010 spreadsheets.

But Trading Systems and Methods is more than just an encyclopedia of contemporary quantitative techniques and programs. It is also a handy primer, providing you with the knowledge and skills you need to choose or design a system perfectly suited to your trading style and goals.

Writing in clear, accessible prose, Kaufman schools you in the basics, walking you through everything from how much data to use and how to create an index, to how to measure risk and how to integrate basic statistics and probability into your trading system. He gets you up to speed on the full range of trading essentials, including trends, momentum, arbitrage, and more. And he provides you with a complete understanding of each method and technique covered—highlighting the similarities between them and describing useful variations on many—while providing expert tips on how to deploy each to your best advantage.

As the markets evolve, so must the strategies you use to trade them. Arming you with the tools, skills, and acumen you need to keep ahead of the pack and achieve the kinds of returns you want and deserve, Trading Systems and Methods, Fifth Edition is an indispensable tool of the trade.

Synopsis:

High praise for Trading Systems and Methods, Fifth Edition

"Kaufman's book has continued to expand and mature since I first read the very first edition, which I thought was a great book. It continues to be a relevant, comprehensive guidebook and cookbook of trading system methods. For all those who are interested in building trading systems, it is an essential resource."

—Dr. Ian J. Nield, Special Advisor, Financial Markets Department, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Wellington

"The new Fifth Edition of Perry Kaufman's Trading Systems and Methods is a significant step forward in understanding trading in the twenty-first century. Perry has taken the most important book on systematic trading and made it even better and more relevant by focusing on the challenges of trading in these remarkable times. In particular, Perry expands on his discussion of risk which has been an important focus of everything he has written, but now takes on even more importance. The Fifth Edition should be required reading for anyone serious about trading."

—Jeff Quinto, President, Electronic Futures Trader Inc., Professional Trader Mentoring Program and Professional Trader Academy

"In my two decades in this industry, one of the few constants has been Trading Systems and Methods. This book is simply the most complete single source of trading methods that work. If you're going to own only one trading book, this is it."

—Murray A. Ruggiero Jr., Contributing Editor, Futures magazine, Vice President of R&D, TradersStudio, Inc.

"In his fifth edition, Perry Kaufman has woven the notion of risk throughout his seminal work on trading systems development. As always, he provides insightful and valuable opinions on various trading methods. The premier reference work on the subject."

—John McPartland, Senior Policy Advisor, Financial Markets Group, The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

"This book is essential reading for anyone interested in systematic trading. It contains comprehensive coverage of all major aspects involved in system design and implementation. Like a great teacher, Perry Kaufman is able to explain complex subject matter in a way that is both clear and concise. If there is one book that anyone in the world of trading systems should have on their shelf, it is this one."

—Thomas Morrow, founding partner, Aquantum AG

Synopsis:

The ultimate guide to trading systems, fully revised and updated

For nearly thirty years, professional and individual traders have turned to Trading Systems and Methods for detailed information on indicators, programs, algorithms, and systems, and now this fully revised Fifth Edition updates coverage for today's markets. The definitive reference on trading systems, the book explains the tools and techniques of successful trading to help traders develop a program that meets their own unique needs.

Presenting an analytical framework for comparing systematic methods and techniques, this new edition offers expanded coverage in nearly all areas, including trends, momentum, arbitrage, integration of fundamental statistics, and risk management. Comprehensive and in-depth, the book describes each technique and how it can be used to a trader's advantage, and shows similarities and variations that may serve as valuable alternatives. The book also walks readers through basic mathematical and statistical concepts of trading system design and methodology, such as how much data to use, how to create an index, risk measurements, and more.

Packed with examples, this thoroughly revised and updated Fifth Edition covers more systems, more methods, and more risk analysis techniques than ever before.

  • The ultimate guide to trading system design and methods, newly revised
  • Includes expanded coverage of trading techniques, arbitrage, statistical tools, and risk management models
  • Written by acclaimed expert Perry J. Kaufman
  • Features spreadsheets and TradeStation programs for a more extensive and interactive learning experience
  • Provides readers with access to a companion website loaded with supplemental materials

Written by a global leader in the trading field, Trading Systems and Methods, Fifth Edition is the essential reference to trading system design and methods updated for a post-crisis trading environment.

About the Author

Perry J. Kaufman has over thirty years of experience in the equity and derivatives markets. A prominent expert on systematic trading, he travels internationally, lecturing to funds, governments, and portfolio managers. He began his career in the aerospace industry, working on the navigation and control systems of the Gemini space program. The markets captured his attention in the early 1970s, and he was one of the first to develop computer models for making market decisions. Kaufman developed a portfolio optimization program that operates on disjoint equity series output from a trading environment. He has created market-neutral strategies, stat-arb trading methods, short-term program trading for cash, and derivative market instruments for institutional and commercial applications. Kaufman was the first chairman of the advisory board of the Vermont Securities Institute, and has served on the Director's Committee of Columbia University's Center for the Study of Futures Markets, founding the Journal of Futures Markets. In 2002, he taught a landmark course in systematic trading at the graduate school of Baruch College. Perry Kaufman is the author of several popular trading books including A Short Course in Technical Trading and Alpha Trading.

Table of Contents

Preface to the Fifth Edition xv

CHAPTER 1 Introduction 1

The Expanding Role of Technical Analysis 1

Convergence of Trading Styles in Stocks and Futures 2

A Line in the Sand between Fundamentals and Technical Analysis 4

Professional and Amateur 5

Random Walk 6

Deciding on a Trading Style 8

Measuring Noise 10

Maturing Markets and Globalization 14

Background Material 16

Research Guidelines 18

Objectives of This Book 19

Profile of a Trading System 20

A Word about the Notation Used in This Book 23

And Finally . . . 23

CHAPTER 2 Basic Concepts and Calculations 25

About Data and Averaging 26

On Average 30

Price Distribution 33

Moments of the Distribution: Variance, Skewness, and Kurtosis 37

Standardizing Risk and Return 48

The Index 54

Standard Measurements of Performance 58

Probability 59

Supply and Demand 66

CHAPTER 3 Charting 79

Finding Consistent Patterns 80

What Causes the Major Price Moves and Trends? 82

The Bar Chart and Its Interpretation by Charles Dow 83

Chart Formations 92

Trendlines 94

One-Day Patterns 102

Continuation Patterns 113

Basic Concepts in Chart Trading 117

Accumulation and Distribution—Bottoms and Tops 118

Episodic Patterns 132

Price Objectives for Bar Charting 133

Implied Strategies in Candlestick Charts 139

Practical Use of the Bar Chart 144

Evolution in Price Patterns 148

CHAPTER 4 Charting Systems and Techniques 151

Dunnigan and the Thrust Method 152

Nofri’s Congestion-Phase System 155

Outside Days with an Outside Close 157

Inside Days 158

Pivot Points 158

Action and Reaction 159

Channel Breakout 167

Moving Channels 170

Commodity Channel Index 171

Wyckoff’s Combined Techniques 172

Complex Patterns 173

A Study of Charting Patterns 176

Bulkowski’s Chart Pattern Rankings 178

CHAPTER 5 Event-Driven Trends 181

Swing Trading 182

Constructing a Swing Chart Using a Swing Filter 184

Point-and-Figure Charting 195

The N-Day Breakout 222

CHAPTER 6 Regression Analysis 235

Components of a Time Series 235

Characteristics of the Price Data 236

Linear Regression 238

Linear Correlation 248

Nonlinear Approximations for Two Variables 252

Transforming Nonlinear to Linear 256

Evaluation of Two-Variable Techniques 257

Multivariate Approximations 259

ARIMA 267

Basic Trading Signals Using a Linear Regression Model 273

Measuring Market Strength 276

CHAPTER 7 Time-Based Trend Calculations 279

Forecasting and Following 279

Price Change over Time 284

The Moving Average 284

Geometric Moving Average 292

Accumulative Average 293

Reset Accumulative Average 293

Drop-Off Effect 293

Exponential Smoothing 293

Plotting Lags and Leads 307

CHAPTER 8 Trend Systems 309

Why Trend Systems Work 309

Basic Buy and Sell Signals 314

Bands and Channels 320

Applications of a Single Trend 330

Comparison of Major Trend Systems 336

Techniques Using Two Trendlines 350

Multiple Trends and Common Sense 356

Comprehensive Studies 359

Selecting the Right Trend Method and Speed 359

Moving Average Sequences: Signal Progression 363

Early Exits from a Trend 366

Moving Average Projected Crossovers 366

CHAPTER 9 Momentum and Oscillators 369

Momentum 370

Divergence Index 384

Oscillators 385

Double-Smoothed Momentum 404

Velocity and Acceleration 412

Hybrid Momentum Techniques 416

Momentum Divergence 418

Some Final Comments on Momentum 426

CHAPTER 10 Seasonality and Calendar Patterns 427

A Consistent Factor 428

The Seasonal Pattern 429

Popular Methods for Calculating Seasonality 430

Seasonal Filters 456

Seasonality and the Stock Market 478

Common Sense and Seasonality 483

CHAPTER 11 Cycle Analysis 485

Cycle Basics 485

Uncovering the Cycle 494

Maximum Entropy 514

Cycle Channel Index 520

Short Cycle Indicator 521

Phasing 523

CHAPTER 12 Volume, Open Interest, and Breadth 527

A Special Case for Futures Volume 527

Variations from the Normal Patterns 529

Standard Interpretation 531

Volume Indicators 535

Breadth Indicators 546

Interpreting Volume and Breadth Systematically 554

An Integrated Probability Model 558

Intraday Volume Patterns 559

Filtering Low Volume 562

Market Facilitation Index 564

CHAPTER 13 Spreads and Arbitrage 565

Dynamics of Futures Intramarket Spreads 566

Carrying Charges 567

Spreads in Stocks 569

Spread and Arbitrage Relationships 570

Risk Reduction in Spreads 571

Arbitrage 572

The Carry Trade 596

Changing Spread Relationships 600

Intermarket Spreads 602

CHAPTER 14 Behavioral Techniques 617

Measuring the News 618

Event Trading 623

Commitment of Traders Report 635

Opinion and Contrary Opinion 641

Fibonacci and Human Behavior 648

Elliott’s Wave Principle 651

Price Target Constructions Using the Fibonacci Ratio 660

Fischer’s Golden Section Compass System 662

W. D. Gann—Time and Space 666

Financial Astrology 671

CHAPTER 15 Pattern Recognition 685

Projecting Daily Highs and Lows 687

Time of Day 689

Opening Gaps 699

Weekday, Weekend, and Reversal Patterns 711

Computer-Based Pattern Recognition 732

Artificial Intelligence Methods 735

CHAPTER 16 Day Trading 737

Impact of Transaction Costs 738

Key Elements of Day Trading 744

Trading Using Price Patterns 753

Intraday Breakout Systems 759

Intraday Volume Patterns 774

Intraday Price Shocks 775

CHAPTER 17 Adaptive Techniques 779

Adaptive Trend Calculations 779

Adaptive Variations 788

Other Adaptive Momentum Calculations 793

Adaptive Intraday Breakout System 796

An Adaptive Process 797

Considering Adaptive Methods 798

CHAPTER 18 Price Distribution Systems 801

Measuring Distribution 801

Use of Price Distributions and Patterns to Anticipate Moves 805

Distribution of Prices 811

Steidlmayer’s Market Profile 822

Using Daily Distributions to Identify Support and Resistance 830

CHAPTER 19 Multiple Time Frames 833

Tuning Two Time Frames to Work Together 833

Elder’s Triple-Screen Trading System 835

Robert Krausz’s Multiple Time Frames 838

Martin Pring’s KST System 842

CHAPTER 20 Advanced Techniques 845

Measuring Volatility 845

Using Volatility for Trading 856

Trade Selection Using Volatility 861

Liquidity 867

Trends and Price Noise 868

Trends and Interest Rate Carry 871

Expert Systems 871

Fuzzy Logic 875

Fractals, Chaos, and Entropy 880

Neural Networks 886

Genetic Algorithms 895

Replication of Hedge Funds 902

CHAPTER 21 System Testing 905

Expectations 907

Identifying the Parameters 908

Selecting the Test Data 910

Testing Integrity 916

Searching for the Best Result 919

Visualizing and Interpreting Test Results 922

Large-Scale Testing 932

Refining the Strategy Rules 937

Arriving at Valid Test Results 938

Comparing the Results of Two Systems 946

Profiting from the Worst Results 950

Retesting for Changing Parameters 951

Testing across a Wide Range of Markets 954

Price Shocks 970

Anatomy of an Optimization 972

Summarizing Robustness 976

CHAPTER 22 Practical Considerations 983

Use and Abuse of the Computer 984

Extreme Events 992

Gambling Techniques—The Theory of Runs 1000

Selective Trading 1011

System Trade-Offs 1012

Trading Limits and Disconnected Markets 1018

Silver and NASDAQ—Too Good to Be True 1020

Similarity of Systematic Trading Signals 1021

CHAPTER 23 Risk Control 1027

Mistaking Luck for Skill 1027

Risk Aversion 1028

Liquidity 1033

Measuring Return and Risk 1034

Leverage 1046

Leverage Based on Exposure 1049

Individual Trade Risk 1050

Kaufman on Stops and Profit-Taking 1059

Ranking of Markets for Selection 1062

Probability of Success and Ruin 1072

Entering a Position 1076

Compounding a Position 1080

Equity Trends 1085

Investing and Reinvesting: Optimal f 1088

Comparing Expected and Actual Results 1092

CHAPTER 24 Diversification and Portfolio Allocation 1099

Diversification 1100

Changing Correlations 1105

Types of Portfolio Models 1105

Classic Portfolio Allocation Calculations 1107

Finding Optimal Portfolio Allocation Using Excel’s Solver 1109

Kaufman’s Genetic Algorithm Solution to Portfolio Allocation (GASP) 1114

Volatility Stabilization 1142

APPENDIX 1 Statistical Tables 1147

APPENDIX 2 Matrix Solution to Linear Equations and Markov Chains 1151

APPENDIX 3 Trigonometric Regression for Finding Cycles 1161

Bibliography 1175

About the Companion Website 1191

Index 1193

Product Details

ISBN:
9781118043561
Author:
Kaufman, Perry J.
Publisher:
Wiley
Author:
Kaufman, Perry J.
Subject:
Finance
Subject:
Trading
Subject:
Trading Systems and Methods, 5th Edition + Website, Trading Systems and Methods, Fifth Edition + Website, Trading Systems and Methods, trading systems book, trading systems and methods, trading system, trading systems, trading program, systems of trading,
Subject:
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Subject:
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Subject:
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Business-Accounting and Finance
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Subject:
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Subject:
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Copyright:
Edition Description:
5th Edition + Website
Series:
Wiley Trading
Series Volume:
591
Publication Date:
20121225
Binding:
HARDCOVER
Language:
English
Pages:
1232
Dimensions:
260 x 185 x 40.099 mm 72 oz

Related Subjects

Business » Accounting and Finance
Business » Investing
Science and Mathematics » Materials Science » General
Textbooks » General

Wiley Trading #591: Trading Systems and Methods, + Website New Hardcover
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$125.00 In Stock
Product details 1232 pages John Wiley & Sons - English 9781118043561 Reviews:
"Synopsis" by , High praise for Trading Systems and Methods, Fifth Edition

"Kaufman's book has continued to expand and mature since I first read the very first edition, which I thought was a great book. It continues to be a relevant, comprehensive guidebook and cookbook of trading system methods. For all those who are interested in building trading systems, it is an essential resource."

—Dr. Ian J. Nield, Special Advisor, Financial Markets Department, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Wellington

"The new Fifth Edition of Perry Kaufman's Trading Systems and Methods is a significant step forward in understanding trading in the twenty-first century. Perry has taken the most important book on systematic trading and made it even better and more relevant by focusing on the challenges of trading in these remarkable times. In particular, Perry expands on his discussion of risk which has been an important focus of everything he has written, but now takes on even more importance. The Fifth Edition should be required reading for anyone serious about trading."

—Jeff Quinto, President, Electronic Futures Trader Inc., Professional Trader Mentoring Program and Professional Trader Academy

"In my two decades in this industry, one of the few constants has been Trading Systems and Methods. This book is simply the most complete single source of trading methods that work. If you're going to own only one trading book, this is it."

—Murray A. Ruggiero Jr., Contributing Editor, Futures magazine, Vice President of R&D, TradersStudio, Inc.

"In his fifth edition, Perry Kaufman has woven the notion of risk throughout his seminal work on trading systems development. As always, he provides insightful and valuable opinions on various trading methods. The premier reference work on the subject."

—John McPartland, Senior Policy Advisor, Financial Markets Group, The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

"This book is essential reading for anyone interested in systematic trading. It contains comprehensive coverage of all major aspects involved in system design and implementation. Like a great teacher, Perry Kaufman is able to explain complex subject matter in a way that is both clear and concise. If there is one book that anyone in the world of trading systems should have on their shelf, it is this one."

—Thomas Morrow, founding partner, Aquantum AG

"Synopsis" by , The ultimate guide to trading systems, fully revised and updated

For nearly thirty years, professional and individual traders have turned to Trading Systems and Methods for detailed information on indicators, programs, algorithms, and systems, and now this fully revised Fifth Edition updates coverage for today's markets. The definitive reference on trading systems, the book explains the tools and techniques of successful trading to help traders develop a program that meets their own unique needs.

Presenting an analytical framework for comparing systematic methods and techniques, this new edition offers expanded coverage in nearly all areas, including trends, momentum, arbitrage, integration of fundamental statistics, and risk management. Comprehensive and in-depth, the book describes each technique and how it can be used to a trader's advantage, and shows similarities and variations that may serve as valuable alternatives. The book also walks readers through basic mathematical and statistical concepts of trading system design and methodology, such as how much data to use, how to create an index, risk measurements, and more.

Packed with examples, this thoroughly revised and updated Fifth Edition covers more systems, more methods, and more risk analysis techniques than ever before.

  • The ultimate guide to trading system design and methods, newly revised
  • Includes expanded coverage of trading techniques, arbitrage, statistical tools, and risk management models
  • Written by acclaimed expert Perry J. Kaufman
  • Features spreadsheets and TradeStation programs for a more extensive and interactive learning experience
  • Provides readers with access to a companion website loaded with supplemental materials

Written by a global leader in the trading field, Trading Systems and Methods, Fifth Edition is the essential reference to trading system design and methods updated for a post-crisis trading environment.

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