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Available May 2014
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The Butterfly Defect: How Globalization Creates Systemic Risks, and What to Do about Itby Ian Goldin
Synopses & Reviews
"Globalization is the girl with the curl: when it is good, it is very, very good, but when it is bad it is awful. It generates a world at the same time both robust yet fragile--economically, financially, environmentally, and socially. The Butterfly Defect explains why this opportunity-cum-threat calls for a radical new approach to the setting of public policy--an approach which to be successful needs to be every bit as hyperconnected as the world it is operating in."--Andy Haldane, Bank of England
"The Butterfly Defect is remarkable. Never has globalization, in its dramatically increased interconnectedness, been looked at so completely and clearly. For policymakers in particular, the book's analysis of the systemic fragility associated with globalized interconnectedness and the need for systemic resilience are of utmost interest."--Jean-Claude Trichet, former president of the European Central Bank and current chairman and CEO of the Group of Thirty
"A vital and timely book, The Butterfly Defect is the first to show why systemic risk threatens us all and how it can be managed. It is a must-read for anyone concerned about our rapidly integrating peoples and businesses, and the future of our hyperconnected world."--Pascal Lamy, former director-general of the WTO
"This fascinating and useful book provides interesting examples and connections across a range of fields and areas of study."--Danny Quah, London School of Economics and Political Science
"This interdisciplinary and far-reaching book brings together diverse research to highlight the increase in systemic risk that accompanies the interconnectedness associated with globalization. No other book has summarized these issues for the general public, and The Butterfly Defect will benefit a broad audience."--David Colander, Middlebury College
"Filled with striking examples, this ambitious book offers a new perspective on globalization--in particular, the need for policy responses that recognize the challenges presented by the globalization of many domains, from health to finance. The message about the need for coordination to overcome systemic problems will strike a chord with readers."--Diane Coyle, author of The Soulful Science: What Economists Really Do and Why It Matters
Global hyperconnectivity and increased system integration have led to vast benefits, including worldwide growth in incomes, education, innovation, and technology. But rapid globalization has also created concerns because the repercussions of local events now cascade over national borders and the fallout of financial meltdowns and environmental disasters affects everyone. The Butterfly Defect addresses the widening gap between systemic risks and their effective management. It shows how the new dynamics of turbo-charged globalization has the potential and power to destabilize our societies. Drawing on the latest insights from a wide variety of disciplines, Ian Goldin and Mike Mariathasan provide practical guidance for how governments, businesses, and individuals can better manage risk in our contemporary world.
Goldin and Mariathasan assert that the current complexities of globalization will not be sustainable as surprises become more frequent and have widespread impacts. The recent financial crisis exemplifies the new form of systemic risk that will characterize the coming decades, and the authors provide the first framework for understanding how such risk will function in the twenty-first century. Goldin and Mariathasan demonstrate that systemic risk issues are now endemic everywhere--in supply chains, pandemics, infrastructure, ecology and climate change, economics, and politics. Unless we are better able to address these concerns, they will lead to greater protectionism, xenophobia, nationalism, and, inevitably, deglobalization, rising conflict, and slower growth.
The Butterfly Defect shows that mitigating uncertainty and systemic risk in an interconnected world is an essential task for our future.
About the Author
Ian Goldin is director of the Oxford Martin School and professor of globalization and development at the University of Oxford. He has served as vice president of the World Bank and an advisor to President Nelson Mandela. His many books include "Divided Nations", "Globalization for Development", and "Exceptional People" (Princeton). Mike Mariathasan is assistant professor of finance at the University of Vienna.
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