Futurethink : How To Think Clearly in a Time of Change (06 Edition)

—General Wesley Clark, U.S. Army (ret.), former NATO commander

"We have exposed many of our people to the thinking technologies contained in this book, and they have proven extremely useful. I recommend this book to anyone who needs to get a grip on what the future may hold."

—Beth Comstock, chief marketing officer, General Electric

"This primer on critical thinking is a vitamin-B shot to the brain. I loved it."

—Barry I. Herstein, senior vice president, International Marketing and Communications, American Express

"FutureThink helps to improve your insight and foresight in a time of rapid change. It also helps you to look beyond today in order to help create a better tomorrow."

—David M. Walker, Comptroller General of the United States, U.S. Government Accountability Office

"Weiner and Brown have taken the innovative and far-reaching vision that earned them respect and admiration in the foresight community and translated it into practical advice for daily business decision-making. Their insights into social dynamics and corporate governance strategies are extraordinarily useful."

—Tim Mack, president, World Future Society

"This is a fantastic book—not the kind you read and forget. The thinking techniques of Weiner and Brown have been extremely useful to us and we would certainly recommend them to others."

—Claudia Kotchka, vice president, Design Innovations and Strategy, Procter and Gamble

FutureThink will help you discard the blinders that keep you from seeing what's really happening around you—so that you can anticipate waves of change and ride them to unprecedented success. Futurists Edie Weiner and Arnold Brown reveal breakthrough thinking techniques that can liberate your mind from its old assumptions and sensitize it to the earliest signals of change—so that you can start responding while your competitors are still asleep.

The authors show how to overcome both personal and institutional biases so that you can see both the forest and the trees. You'll learn how to recognize when trends aren't linear and when tomorrow won't be "just like today, only more so." The authors show how a football game can help you clarify your priorities in attracting and retaining customers, why the law of entropy explains why benchmarking often fails, how to understand the profound implications of demography, and much more. Above all, this book helps you act on what you learn—and overcome the human tendency to reject or deny the signs of change.

Grounded in science and supported by the authors' exceptional track record as futurists with clients such as Target Stores, Ernst and Young, and AIG, FutureThink teaches the most important skill you can learn right now: how to manage the future.

Overcoming the traps that stop you from managing change

Why individuals can't understand change and organizations don't respond to it

Revealing the hidden patterns of change

Trend/countertrend, spirals and pendulums, extremes and middles, multiplier effects, and more

Imagining new and better ways forward

Metaphors that free your mind to act rapidly and powerfully

Beyond "inattentional blindness": seeing what's coming up behind you

Practical techniques for supercharging your peripheral vision

What you can—and can't—learn from history

Predicting the future of the Internet, for example, from the history of railroads

The Law of Large Numbers: explaining many of today's most powerful forces

Recognizing the drivers behind everything from deviancy to terrorism

© Copyright Pearson Education. All rights reserved.

Edie Weiner is President president of Weiner Edrich Brown, Inc., a leading futurist consultancy based in New York City. She has thirty30 years experience in issues analysis and strategic planning, and was the youngest outside woman elected to the Board of a major financial institution. A guest lecturer at Wharton and Harvard, her work has appeared in Harvard Business Review and The Wall Street Journal.

Arnold Brown,Chairman chairman of Weiner Edrich Brown, Inc., pioneered strategic scanning for management. His clients have included GM, 3M, the IRS, Merck, and the U.S. Congress. He is a director of the World Future Society.

 The authors' previous books include Supermanaging and Insider's Guide to the Future.

Acknowledgments.

Introduction.

I. PERSONAL TRAPS: INDIVIDUAL BIASES AND BLOCKS TO SEEING AND UNDERSTANDING CHANGE.

 1. Looking Through Alien Eyes.

 2. Trend/Countertrend.

 3. Substituting the Spiral for the Pendulum.

 4. The Extremes Inform the Middle.

II. ORGANIZATIONAL TRAPS: INSTITUTIONAL BIASES AND BLOCKS TO RESPONDING TO CHANGE.

 6. The Multiplier Effect of New Distribution Channels.

 7. Entropy.

 8. Integrity Begets Quality.

III. SPRINGING THE TRAP: SEEING THE BIG PICTURE.

 9. The Law of Large Numbers.

10. Demography.

11. Compromise Versus Lowest Common Denominators.

IV. IMAGINING THE WAY:  USING METAPHORS TO FREE YOUR MIND.

12. The Three-Legged Stools of the Political Agenda.

13. Right-of-Way.

14. Football Meets Shopping.

15. Managing by Harnessing Evolution.

16. Self-Defeating and Self-Fulfilling Prophecies.

Conclusion.

References.

Index.