Earth's Climate : Past and Future (2ND 08 Edition)

Part I Framework of Climate Science

1. Overview of Climate Science

Climate and Climate Change

   1-1 Geologic Time

   1-2 How This Book Is Organized

Development of Climate Science

   1-3 How Scientists Study Climate Change

Overview of the Climate System

   1-4 Components of the Climate System

   1-5 Climate Forcing

   1-6 Climate System Responses

   1-7 Time Scales of Forcing versus Response

   1-8 Differing Response Rates and Climate-System Interactions

   1-9 Feedbacks in the Climate System

Tools of Climate Science  Temperature Scales

Climate Interactions and Feedbacks: Positive and Negative Feedbacks

Climate Archives, Dating, and Resolution

   2-1 Types of Archives

   2-2 Dating Climate Records

   2-3 Climatic Resolution

Climatic Data

    2-4 Biotic Data

    2-5 Geological and Geochemical Data

Climate Models

   2-6 Physical Climate Models

   2-7 Geochemical Models

3. CO2 and Long-Term Climate

Greenhouse Worlds

Faint Young Sun Paradox

Carbon Exchanges between Rocks and the Atmosphere

   3-1 Volcanic Input of Carbon from Rocks to the Atmosphere

   3-2 Removal of CO2 from the Atmosphere by Chemical Weathering

Climatic Factors That Control Chemical Weathering

Is Chemical Weathering Earths Thermostat?

   3-3 Greenhouse Role of Water Vapor

Is Life the Ultimate Control on Earths Termostat?

   3-4 Gaia Hypothesis

Was There a “Thermostat Malfunction”? A Snowball Earth?

Looking Deeper into Climate Science Organic Carbon Cycle

Plate Tectonics

   4-1 Structure and Composition of Tectonic Plates

   4-2 Evidence of Past Plate Motions

Polar Position Hypothesis

   4-3 Glaciations and Continental Positions since 500 Myr Ago

Modeling Climate on the Supercontinent Pangaea

   4-4 Input to the Model Simulation of Climate on Pangaea

   4-5 Output from the Model Simulation of Climate on Pangaea

Tectonic Control of CO2 Input: BLAG Spreading-Rate Hypothesis

   4-6 Control of CO2 Input by Seafloor Spreading

   4-7 Initial Evaluation of the BLAG Spreading Rate Hypothesis

Tectonic Control of CO2 Removal: Uplift-Weathering Hypothesis

   4-8 Rock Exposure and Chemical Weathering

   4-9 Case Study: The Wind River Basin of Wyoming

   4-10 Uplift and Chemical Weathering

   4-11 Case Study: Weathering in the Amazon Basin

   4-12 Weathering: Both a Climate Forcing and a Feedback?

Looking Deeper into Climate Science Brief Glaciation 440 Myr Ago

What Explains the Warmth 100 Myr Ago?

   5-1 Model Simulations of the Cretaceous Greenhouse

   5-2 What Explains the Data-Model Mismatch?

   5-3 Relevance of Past Greenhouse Climate to the Future

Sea Level Changes and Climate

   5-4 Causes of Tectonic-Scale Changes in Sea Level

   5-5 Effect of Changes in Sea Level on Climate

Asteroid Impact

Large and Abrupt Greenhouse Episode near 50 Myr Ago

Looking Deeper into Climate Science Calculating Changes in Sea Level

Global Climate Change Since 50 Myr Ago

   6-1 Evidence from Ice and Vegetation

   6-2 Evidence from Oxygen Isotope Measurements

   6-3 Evidence from Mg/Ca Measurements

Do Changes in Geography Explain the Cooling?

   6-4 Gateway Hypothesis

   6-5 Assessment of Gateway Changes

Hypotheses Linked to Changes in CO2

   6-6 Evaluation of the BLAG Spreading Rate Hypothesis

   6-7 Evaluation of the Uplift Weathering Hypothesis

Future Climate Change at Tectonic Scales

Climate Debate Timing of the Uplift in Western North America

Looking Deeper into Climate Science Organic Carbon: Monterrey Hypothesis

7. Astronomical Control of Solar Radiation

Earths Orbit Today

   7-1 Earths Tilted Axis of Rotation and the Seasons

   7-2 Earths Eccentric Orbit: Distance between Earth and Sun

Long-Term Changes in Earths Orbit

   7-3 Changes in Earths Axial Tilt through Time

   7-4 Changes in Earths Eccentric Orbit through Time

   7-5 Precession of the Solstices and Equinoxes around Earths Orbit

Changes in Insolation Received on Earth

   7-6 Insolation Changes by Month and Season

   7-7 Insolation Changes by Caloric Seasons

Searching for Orbital-Scale Changes in Climatic Records

   7-8 Time Series Analysis

   7-9 Effects of Undersampling Climate Records

   7-10 Tectonic-Scale Changes in Earths Orbit

Tools of Climate Science  Cycles and Modulation

Looking Deeper into Climate Science  Earths Precession as a Sine Wave

Monsoon Circulations

   8-1 Orbital-Scale Control of Summer Monsoons

Orbital-Scale Changes in North African Summer Monsoons

   8-2 “Stinky Muds” in the Mediteranean

   8-3 Freshwater Diatoms in the Tropical Atlantic

   8-4 Upwelling in the Equatorial Atlantic

Orbital Monsoon Hypothesis: Regional Assessment

   8-5 Cave Speleothems in China and Brazil

   8-6 Phasing of Summer Monsoons

Monsoon Forcing Earlier in Earths History

   8-7 Monsoons on Pangaea 200 Myr Ago

   8-8 Joint Tectonic and Orbital Control of Monsoons

Looking Deeper into Climate Science Insolation-Driven Monsoon Responses: Chronometer for Tuning

Milankovitch Theory: Orbital Control of Ice Sheets

Modeling the Behavior of Ice Sheets

   9-1 Insolation Control of Ice Sheet Size

   9-2 Ice Sheets Lag behind Summer Insolation Forcing

   9-3 Delayed Bedrock Response beneath Ice Sheets

   9-4 Full Cycle of Ice Growth and Decay

   9-5 Ice Slipping and Calving

Northern Hemisphere Ice Sheet History

   9-6 Ice Sheet History: d18O Evidence

   9-7 Confirming Ice Volume Changes: Coral Reefs and Sea Level

Is Milankovichs Theory the Full Answer?

Looking Deeper into Climate Science Ice Volume Response to Insolation

Looking Deeper into Climate Science Sea Level on Uplifting Islands

Ice Cores

   10-1 Drilling and Dating Ice Cores

   10-2 Verifying Ice-Core Measurements of Ancient Air

   10-3 Orbital-Scale Carbon Transfers: Carbon Isotopes

Orbital-Scale Changes in CO2

   10-4 Where Did the Missing Carbon Go?

   10-5 d13C Evidence of Carbon Transfer

How Did the Carbon Get into the Deep Ocean?

   10-6 Increased CO2 Solubility in Seawater

   10-7 Biological Transfer from Surface Waters

   10-8 Changes in Deep-Water Circulation

Orbital-Scale Changes in CH4

Orbital-Scale Climatic Roles: CO2 and CH4

Looking Deeper into Climate Science  Using d13C to Measure Carbon Pumping

Climatic Responses Driven by the Ice Sheets

Mystery of the 41,000-Year Glacial World

   11-1 Did Insolation Really Vary Mainly at 41,000 Years?

   11-2 Interhemispheric Cancellation of 23,000-Year Ice Volume Responses?

   11-3 CO2 Feedback at 41,000 Years?

Mystery of the ~100,000-Year Glacial World

   11-4 How Is the Northern Ice Signal Transferred South?

Why Did the Northern Ice Sheets Vary at ~100,000 Years?

   11-5 Ice Interactions with Bedrock

   11-6 Ice Interactions with the Local Environment

   11-7 Ice Interactions with Greenhouse Gases

Looking Deeper into Climate Science @BXH:Link Between Forcing and the Time Constants of Ice Response

12. Last Glacial Maximum

Glacial World: More Ice, Less Gas

   12-1 Project CLIMAP: Reconstructing the Last Glacial Maximum

   12-2 How Large Were the Ice Sheets?

   12-3 Glacial Dirt and Winds

Testing Model Simulations against Biotic Data

   12-4 COHMAP: Data-Model Comparisons

   12-5 Pollen: Indicator of Climate on the Continents

   12-6 Using Pollen for Data-Model Comparisons

Data-Model Comparisons of Glacial Maximum Climates

   12-7 Model Simulations of Glacial Maximum Climates

12-8 Climate Changes Near the Northern Ice Sheets

   12-9 Climate Changes Far from the Northern Ice Sheets

How Cold Were the Glacial Tropics?

  12-10 Evidence for a Small Tropical Cooling

  12-11 Evidence for a Large Tropical Cooling

  12-12 Actual Cooling Was Medium-Small

Fire and Ice: Shift in the Balance of Power

   13-1 When Did the Ice Sheets Melt?

   13-2 Coral Reefs and Rising Sea Level

   13-3 Glitches in the Deglaciation: Deglacial Two-Step

   13-4 Positive Feedbacks to Deglacial Melting

   13-5 Deglacial Lakes, Floods, and Sea Level Rise

Other Climate Changes During and After Deglaciation

   13-6 Stronger, Then Weaker Monsoons

   13-7 Warmer, Then Cooler North Polar Summers

Current and Future Orbital-Scale Climatic Change

Tools of Climate Science Deglacial 14C Dates Are Too Young

Climate Interactions and Feedbacks Giant Deglacial Floods

Millennial Oscillations During Glaciations

   14-1 Oscillations Recorded in Greenland Ice Cores

   14-2 Oscillations Recorded in North Atlantic Sediments

   14-3 Detecting and Dating Oscillations in Other Regions

   14-4 Oscillations Elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere

   14-5 Oscillations in Antarctica

Millennial Oscillations During the Present Interglaciation

Causes of Millennial Oscillations

   14-6 Solar Variability

   14-7 Natural Instabilities in Ice Sheets

   14-8 Greenhouse-Gas Forcing

   14-9 Other Natural Interactions in the Climate System

   14-10 Implications for Future Climate

Climate and Human Evolution

   15-1 Evidence of Human Evolution

   15-2 Did Climate Change Drive Human Evolution?

   15-3 Testing Climatic Hypotheses with Fragmentary Records

Impact of Climate on Early Farming

   15-4 Did Deglacial Warming Lead to Early Agriculture

   15-5 Impacts of Climate on Early Civilizations

Early Impacts of Humans on Climate

   15-6 Did Humans Cause Megafaunal Extinctions?

   15-7 Did Early Farmers Alter Climate?

Climate Debate Sea Level Rise and Flood Legends

Little Ice Age

Proxy Records of Historical Climate

   16-1 Ice Cores from Mountain Glaciers

   16-2 Tree Rings

   16-3 Corals and Tropical Ocean Temperatures

   16-4 Other Historical Observations

Reconstructing Hemispheric Temperature Trends

Proposed Causes of Climate Change from 1000 to 1850

   16-5 Orbital Forcing

   16-6 Millenial Bipolar Seesaw

   16-7 Solar Variability

   16-8 Volcanic Explosions

   16-9 Greenhouse-Gas Effects on Climate

Tools of Climate Science  Analyzing Tree Rings

Climate Interactions and Feedbacks El Niño and ENSO

Reconstructing Changes in Sea Level

   17-1 Fading Memories of Melted Ice Sheets

Other Instrumental Records

   17-2 Surface Temperatures

   17-3 Subsurface Ocean Temperatures

   17-4 Mountain Glaciers

   17-5 Ground Temperature

Satellite Observations

   17-6 Circum-Artic Warming

   17-7 Ice Sheets

Sources of the Recent Rise in Sea Level

Shorter-Term Oscillations

Natural Causes of Recent Warming

   18-1 Tectonic, Orbital, and Millenial Factors

   18-2 Century- and Decadal-Scale Factors: Solar Forcing

   18-3 Annual-Scale Forcing: El Niños and Volcanic Eruptions

Anthropogenic Causes of the Recent Warming

   18-4 Carbon Dioxide (CO2)

   18-5 Methane (CH4)

   18-6 Increases in Chlorofluorocarbons

   18-7 Sulfate Aerosols

   18-8 Brown Clouds

   18-9 Land Clearance

Earths Sensitivity to Greenhouse Gases

   18-10 Sensitivity in Climate Models

   18-11 Sensitivity to Greenhouse Gases: Earths Climate History

Why Has the Warming Since 1850 Been So Small?

   18-12 Delayed Warming: Ocean Thermal Inertia

   18-13 Cooling from Anthropogenic Aerosols

Global Warming: Summary

Climate Interactions and Feedbacks Radiative Focing of Recent Warming

Future Human Impacts on Greenhouse Gases×

   19-1 Factors Affecting Future Carbon Emissions

   19-2 Projected Carbon Emissions and CO2 Concentrations

   19-3 Other Human Effects on the Atmosphere

Future Climate Changes Caused by increased CO2

   19-4 A World in Climatic Disequilibrium

   19-5 Partial Fugure Analogs: 2 × and 4 × Preindustrial CO2 Concentrations

   19-6 Greenhouse Surprises?

   19-7 How Will Greenhouse Warming Change Human Life?

Climate Modification?

Climate Interactions and Feedbacks Will Frozen Methane Melt?