Synopses & Reviews
Terrorism has become global, and incredibly complex, because it exists inside a social and economic system that's become global and complex. Globalization, unfortunately, has planted the seeds of its own destruction. Every new technology for improving the world system, is also a tool for undoing it. The question John Robb is most concerned about boils down to: will terrorism, in the end, be able to destroy the current system? The tragedy of 9/11 represents the pinnacle--and finale--of terrorism the old way. The goal was to inflict psychic damage, and nothing will ever top that--but they don't need to. Most forward thinking military strategists understand that we've entered the age of fourth generation warfare. The first three generations of strategy revolved around the best way for one state's large army to inflict massive casualties on the other state's army. Political scientists are moving away from state against state thinking, to thinking about non-state actors. Our enemies are now much smaller than that: small, ad-hoc bands of like-minded insurgents, organized less like bees in a hive than like the millions of users for Wikipedia, each with its own competing, but complementary agenda.
As Brave New War explains, system disruption lies at the heart of the agenda. Instead of symbolic, or deadly attacks, we should be on the lookout for economically devastating attacks. Our enemy will be looking for gaps in the system where a small, cheap action--say, on an oil pipeline--will generate a tremendous return. It may not even make the evening news, except as a report on spiraling gas prices.Because of the open source nature of the enemy, they don't all need to be smart. In fact, none of them need to be smart. They'll just keep trying random acts until one really works, and then they'll all copy it. That doesn't take genius, just flexibility. Is this all just theoretical? No, it's exactly what we're seeing in Iraq, as their IEDs improve, their targeting abilities expand, and their networks become more invisible. But isn't Iraq sui generis? Hardly. From Nigeria to Saudi Arabia to Chechnya and beyond, it's spreading. Right now, the West is not prepared for it, and worse, we never can be truly prepared. No one can predict what the next catastrophic attack will be, because even now it's beyond the imagining of those who will perpetrate it.
What's the solution? What Robb refers to as deep resilience. We need to make our economic and communication systems more decentralized. If we can't stop an attack in advance, we can mitigate it. Right now, we've left ourselves too open to attack, with all our resources too concentrated. A simple, successful attack in Saudi Arabia, Taiwan, or New York could shut down the world's oil, high-tech, or financial markets, costing millions. We have too few energy sources, too few shipping routes, too few companies making the components for all the things we need. Until Americans start seeing the world as John Robb does, we'll spend all our resources preventing the last attack, rather than the next one.
Review
""a fast, thought-sparking book."" (""The New York Times"", May 18, 2007)
Synopsis
For my money, John Robb, a former Air Force officer and tech guru, is the futurists' futurist. - Slate
In Brave New War, controversial terrorism expert John Robb argues that the shift from state-against-state conflicts to wars against small, ad-hoc bands of like-minded insurgents will lead to a world with as many tiny armies as there are causes to fight for. Our new enemy will be looking for gaps in the system where a small, cheap action- on an oil pipeline or the power grid- will generate a huge return. Taking steps to combat the shutdown of the world' s oil, high-tech, and financial markets could cost us the thing we' ve come to value the most: worldwide economic and cultural integration. Brave New War makes the debate-changing argument we can' t afford to ignore.
John Robb (Boston, MA) is a former U.S. counterterrorism operation planner and commander who now advises corporations on the future of terrorism, infrastructure, and markets. His writings on war have appeared in the New York Times and Fast Company.
Synopsis
""For my money, John Robb, a former Air Force officer and tech guru, is the futurists' futurist.""
--""Slate""
War in the twenty-first century will be very different from what we've come to expect. Terrorism and guerrilla warfare are rapidly evolving to allow nonstate networks to challenge the structure and order of nation-states. It is a change on par with the rise of the Internet and China, and will dramatically change how you and your kids will view security.
In ""Brave New War,"" the counterterrorism expert John Robb reveals how the same technology that has enabled globalization also allows terrorists and criminals to join forces against larger adversaries with relative ease and to carry out small, inexpensive actions--like sabotaging an oil pipeline--that will generate a huge return. He shows how taking steps to combat the shutdown of the world's oil, high-tech, and financial markets could cost us the thing we've come to value the most--worldwide economic and cultural integration--and the crucial steps we must take now to safeguard our systems and ourselves against this new method of warfare.
Synopsis
During the summer of 2004, a small group of Iraqi insurgents blew up a southern section of the Iraqi oil pipeline infrastructure. This attack cost an estimated $2,000 to produce, and no attackers were caught, while the explosion cost Iraq $500 million in lost oil exportsa rate of return 250,000 times the cost of the attack.
In Brave New War, the controversial terrorism expert John Robb argues that the shift from state-against-state conflicts to wars against small, ad hoc bands of like-minded insurgents will lead to a world with as many tiny armies as there are causes to fight for. Our new enemies are looking for gaps in vital systems where a small, cheap actionblowing up an oil pipeline or knocking out a power gridwill generate a huge return.
Drawing on scores of chilling examples from the ongoing insurgency in Iraq, Robb reveals how the technology that has enabled globalization also allows terrorists, criminals, and violent ideologues of every stripe to join forces against a far bigger and richer foe without revealing their identities, following orders, or even working toward the same ultimate goal. This new brand of open-source warfare enables insurgents to coordinate attacks, swarm on targets, and adapt rapidly to changes in their enemy's tactics, all at minimal cost and risk. And now, Robb shows, it is being exported around the world, from Pakistan to Nigeria to Mexico, creating a new class of insurgents he calls global guerrillas.
This evolutionary leap in the methods of warfare makes it possible for extremely small nonstate groups to fight states and possibly win on a regular basis. The use of systems disruption as a method of strategic warfare gives rise to a nightmare scenario in which any nationincluding the United Statescan be driven to bankruptcy by an enemy it can't compete with economically. We are staring at a future where defeat isn't experienced all at once but as an inevitable withering away of military, economic, and political power through wasting conflicts with minor foes.
How can we defend ourselves against this pernicious new menace? Brave New War presents a debate-changing argument that no one who cares about national security can afford to ignore: it is time, says Robb, to decentralize all of our systems, from energy and communications to security and markets. It is time for every citizen to take personal responsibility for some aspect of state security. It is time to make our systems, and ourselves, as flexible, adaptable, and resilient as the forces that are arrayed against us.
Synopsis
"For my money, John Robb, a former Air Force officer and tech guru, is the futurists' futurist."
--"Slate"
The counterterrorism expert John Robb reveals how the same technology that has enabled globalization also allows terrorists and criminals to join forces against larger adversaries with relative ease and to carry out small, inexpensive actions--like sabotaging an oil pipeline--that generate a huge return. He shows how combating the shutdown of the world's oil, high-tech, and financial markets could cost us the thing we've come to value the most--worldwide economic and cultural integration--and what we must do now to safeguard against this new method of warfare.
About the Author
John Robb, a former U.S. counterterrorism operation planner and commander, now advises corporations on the future of terrorism, infrastructure, and markets. He is a graduate of Yale University and the Air Force Academy, and his writings on war have appeared in ""Fast Company"" and the ""New York Times.""
Table of Contents
Foreword by James Fallows.
Preface.
Part I. THE FUTURE OF WAR IS NOW.
1 The Superempowered Competition.
2 Disorder on the Doorstep.
3 A New Strategic Weapon.
Part II. GLOBAL GUERRILLAS.
4 The Long Tail of Warfare Emerges.
5 Systems Disruption.
6 Open-Source Warfare.
Part III. HOW GLOBALIZATION WILL PUT AN END TO GLOBALIZATION.
7 Guerrilla Entrepreneurs.
8 Rethinking Security.
9 A Brittle Security Breakdown.
Notes.
Further Reading.
Index.