Synopses & Reviews
During these turbulent economic times, with what could be the deepest global recession we've ever seen bearing down on us, the one thing you don't need is another book describing how we've gotten to this point. What you do need are insights into what will happen going forward and how you can use this information to protect what really mattersincluding the value of your home and portfolio as well as the security of your job and way of life. If that is your goal, this book is a must-read.
While the concepts surrounding our current situation may be complicated, you don't need to be an economic expert to understand what's going on and what may happen next. But you do need to be prepared, and the analysis offered here can help both anxious individuals who are just starting to realize the magnitude of this event as well as those more familiar with finance get through the difficult times ahead.
Over the course of the last decade, bestselling author and former investment banker John Talbott's string of accurate predictions regarding the bursting of the Internet stock and housing bubbles, the mortgage mess, and downturns in the general economy have been well documented in his numerous books including Slave Wages, The Coming Crash in the Housing Market, and Sell Now!: The End of the Housing Bubble.
Now, with Contagion, he puts his reputation on the line again and boldy predicts how the current global economic crisis may change our lives for much longer than politicians care to admit.
Using a much broader definition of the term "contagion"to include financial, governmental, and societal mattersthis timely book offers essential insights that investors, business executives, and concerned citizens must be aware of in order to protect themselves and their assets, companies, and lives from a prolonged and deep global recession.
Page by page, Talbott explains the history behind our present economic condition and, more importantly, helps us understand where we go from here. He explains the severity of the financial and economic problems plaguing us and the reasons behind them.
Talbott's analysis of the current financial crisis and its root causes extends far beyond simple subprime mortgage lending. He explains that all types of lending will be threatened in the brave new world and that the economy won't recover until banks, businesses, government, and consumers all deleverage and learn to live with less debt and less consumption. But, Talbott does not stop there. He blames deregulation for allowing the banks to do this to us, but also blames our government representatives who took campaign contributions in exchange for a laissez faire approach to market regulation. Finally, he asks each of us to reflect on the importance of materialism and consumption in trying to define and live a full and rich life.
Tough times are ahead and Talbott argues that the coming recession will be on a global scale, affecting economies across the world. We have had no real growth in GDP for the last ten years if purchases with government and personal debt are excluded. In effect, government borrowing and spending on the war and healthcare and Social Security and corporate give-aways combined with dramatic increases in personal spending funded by credit card and mortgage debt have funded unsustainable levels of personal and government consumption. The world's banks are threatened with insolvency due to bad mortgage loans and will not be making new loans for any purposes for a very long time. Consumption, by definition, has to decline. Our financial markets worldwide are in chaos with the inability of any financial house or big hedge fund going bankrupt without pulling down the whole $400 trillion derivatives market and the global financial markets at the same time. With this as a backdrop, Talbott offers practical suggestions as to how homeowners and investors can best weather the coming storm with specific advice on where to invest by type of investment and geographic location. Stocks, bonds, TIPS, commodities, real estate, housing and currencies will all be examined.
For more than a decade, bestselling author and former investment banker John Talbott has accurately called many of the major financial crises we have faced long before they occurred. In 2003, he predicted the housing market collapse in his bestselling book, The Coming Crash of the Housing Market
. In 2006, he foretold the peak in housing prices and wisely explained Sell Now!, in a timely sequel to his bestseller. Most recently, he insightfully probed the bottom-up economic policies that would guide Barack Obama to the White House in his book Obamanomics.
Past is always prologue for Talbott, and his economic reasoning and free-thinking forecasts about the future have captured people's attention. In his latest book, Contagion, he again warns about what once seemed implausible and impossible—the deepest global recession the world has ever seen, one that will forever shake the economic foundations and social fabric of our lives.
"Talbott is the author of two books that more or less foretold the pain homeowners are now experiencing. . . . So far many of John Talbott's predictions have been spot-on. But as the housing bust continues, homeowners in my neighborhood and beyond have every reason to hope his prescience proves short-lived."
—Daniel McGinn, national correspondent, Newsweek, and author of Home Lust: America's Obsession with Our Homes
"When John Talbott's controversial book, The Coming Crash in the Housing Market, hit store shelves in 2003, the real estate industry—and everyone else who stood to profit from the dizzying rise in U.S. home prices—gave it a hostile reception. So, with subprime mortgage loses and credit woes now the no. 1 topic in the markets, what does the former Goldman Sachs investment banker see next?"
—Toronto Globe & Mail (September 14, 2007)
With the worldwide financial crisis and economic contagion mutating in ways that foreshadow global economic meltdown, Talbott explores the necessary government actions and reforms—and strategies that investors can use—to weather one of the worst financial crises in history. Never have Talbott's predictions been as bold, or his advice about what to do in the future more timely.
Bestselling author John Talbott outlines the troublesome economic times ahead and what can be done about them
Tough times are here, and author John Talbott-who accurately predicted the dot.com technology stock collapse as well as the recent housing, mortgage, and financial crises-argues that the coming global recession will be unlike anything we've ever seen.
In Contagion, Talbott turns his attention to this crisis and offers insights on what can be done to navigate such treacherous terrain. Talbott sets the stage by discussing how government borrowing and spending on the war, healthcare, Social Security, and corporate giveaways combined with dramatic increases in personal spending, fueled by credit card and mortgage debt, have funded unsustainable levels of personal and government consumption.
- Offers practical suggestions as to how investors and homeowners can best weather this storm with straightforward advice on where to invest
- Examines real estate and housing issues to help you make the best decisions possible in this arena
- Details the best ways to utilize stocks, bonds, TIPS, and commodities, and to prosper during this global crisis
- If you really want to protect yourself from the unfolding economic crisis, then Contagion is the book you need to read.
About the Author
John R. Talbott
is a bestselling author, a former investment banker for Goldman Sachs, and previously a visiting scholar at UCLA's Anderson School of Management.
For the last decade he has been writing full-time as an author, publishing six books and numerous peer-reviewed academic journal articles on economics and politics. His book titles include SlaveWages, The Coming Crash in the Housing Market, Where America Went Wrong: And How to Regain Her Democratic Ideals, Sell Now!: The End of the Housing Bubble, and Obamanomics. Talbott has served as an economic adviser to a number of developing countries, including Jordan and Russia.
He has appeared live on CNN, Fox News, CNNfn, CNBC, MSNBC, and CBS, and has published articles in the Wall Street Journal, Boston Globe, Philadelphia Examiner, San Francisco Chronicle, and Financial Times.
Table of Contents
Chapter 1. Bamboozled.
Chapter 2. What Didn't Cause the U.S. Housing Boom and Bust.
Chapter 3. What Did Cause the U.S. Housing Boom and Bust.
Chapter 4. The Contagion Spreads from Sub-Prime to Prime.
Chapter 5. How Low Will Housing Prices Go in the U.S.?
Chapter 6. The U.S. Economy Was Not in Great Shape to Begin With.
Chapter 7. U.S. Enters a Long Recession.
Chapter 8. The Global Economy Catches the Contagion.
Chapter 9. Too Big to Fail—The $400 Trillion Derivatives Market.
Chapter 10. Our Local Governments Feel the Pinch.
Chapter 11. From Wall Street to Main Street.
Chapter 12. Demographics Magnify Contagion.
Chapter 13. Which Investments and Which Countries Will Weather the Storm the Best?
Chapter 14. Stop the Bleeding.
Chapter 15. No Future without Reform.
Chapter 16. A Warning Shot Across Our Bow.
About the Author.