Synopses & Reviews
Decision Analysis for Management Judgment Second Edition In an increasingly complex world, decision analysis can play a major role in helping decision makers to gain a greater understanding of the problems they face; particularly as research has shown that the decision-making process can often go wrong. This book aims to make decision analysis accessible to managers and administrators in business and public sector organizations. Written in a user-friendly style and using practical examples, it shows how difficult decisions can be tackled in a structured way so that new insights emerge and a documented and defensible rationale for the decision is established. Extended and updated to include the latest ideas and techniques, new features of this edition include chapters on the analytic hierarchy process, decision framing, scenario planning and how unaided decision makers make decisions, while more exercises and discussion questions have been included at the end of most chapters. Decision Analysis for Management Judgment is an essentially practical book which draws together ideas from a variety of disciplines - including psychology, management science and statistics. Assuming little or no prior knowledge of these disciplines, it will help both practicing managers faced with the responsibility of making crucial decisions as well as students on management, business administration and decision analysis courses. "I found the book well organized, informative, and especially easy to read . I give the book my highest recommendation." Journal of the Operational Research Society "This is an excellent introductory text on decision analysis and the best I have seen . Goodwin and Wright have written a remarkably complete text. It is hard to find fault with this book." Interfaces "[This book] offers plenty of thought-provoking questions and inspiration for new ways of tackling decision problems. [It] makes for easy and interesting reading." Scandinavian Journal of Management "All in all, this book is well written,user friendly, and very informative. A very worthwhile book." Personnel Psychology
Synopsis
In an increasingly complex world, decision analysis plays a key role in helping managers gain a greater understanding of the situations they face. This updated classic offers unrivalled coverage of the problems associated with unaided managerial decision making and the methods designed to overcome them, all presented and explained in a clear, straightforward manner. The Third Editionis extensively updated and reflects new developments such as 'fast and frugal heuristics' and "structured risk management". A new website will offer links, additional exercises and case studies, and downloadable Excel spreadsheets.
Synopsis
Decision analysis can play a valuable role in helping people to make decisions that involve risks or multiple objectives, but potential users are often deterred by the presentation of the subject in a mathematical form. This book aims to make decision analysis accessible to managers and administrators. Written in a user-friendly style, with little or no mathematical notation, and using practical examples, the book is unrivalled in its breadth of coverage of decision analysis methods. It demonstrates the pitfalls associated with unaided decision making and shows how difficult decisions can be tackled in structured ways so that new insights emerge and a documented and defensible rationale for the decision is established.
Extended and updated, this new edition contains a new chapter on structured risk and uncertainty management, updated coverage of research on how people make decisions, including fast and frugal heuristics, a detailed case study demonstrating the application of scenario planning and enhanced coverage of decision framing. Additional exercises have also been added to many chapters, while a companion web site contains valuable resources for lecturers and students. These include detailed answers to end-of-chapter exercises, PowerPoint slides, specimen examination papers and coursework with suggested answers, and links to other resources on the Internet, including downloadable software.
Assuming no prior knowledge of decision analysis, this book will help both practising managers faced with the responsibility of making crucial decisions as well as students on management, business administration and operations research courses.
About the Author
'
Paul Goodwinis Senior Lecturer in Management Science in the Management School at the University of Bath. His research interests focus on the role of management judgment in forecasting and decision-making, and he has published in key journals in the field. He is an Associate Editor of the
International Journal ofForecasting and a member of the editorial board of the
Journal of Behavioral Decision Making. He has consulted with firms such as British Telecom and South Western Electricity.
George Wrightis a psychologist with an interest in the role and validity of judgment in decision making and forecasting. He is especially interested in the use of management science- and behaviorally-based methods to improve decision-making. He has published in key journals, and is the Editor of the Journal of Behavioral Decision Making. He has consulted with firms such as IBM, ICL, NEC, Petronas, Jordan Ministry of Planning, and the Scottish Football Association. '
Table of Contents
Decisions Involving Multiple Objectives.
How People Make Decisions Involving Multiple Objectives.
Introduction to Probability.
Decision Making Under Uncertainty.
Decision Trees and Influence Diagrams.
Applying Simulation to Decision Problems.
Revising Judgments in the Light of New Information.
Biases in Probability Assessment.
Methods for Eliciting Probabilities.
Decisions Involving Groups of Individuals.
Resource Allocation and Negotiation Problems.
Decision Framing and Cognitive Inertia.
Scenario Planning: An Alternative Way of Dealing with Uncertainty.
The Analytic Hierarchy Process.
Alternative Decision-Support Systems.
Suggested Answers to Selected Questions.
Suppliers of Computer Software.
Index.