Synopses & Reviews
An award-winning journalist uses landmark research to debunk the whole expert prediction industry, and explores the psychology of our obsession with future history. In 2008, experts predicted gas would hit $20 a gallon; it peaked at $4.10. In 1967, they said the USSR would be the world's fastest-growing economy by 2000; by 2000, the USSR no longer existed. In 1908, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart- throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future- everything from the weather to the likelihood of a terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it's so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts.
In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, journalist Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by UC Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock proved that the more famous a pundit is, the more likely he is to be right about as often as a stopped watch. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.
Review
"
Future Babble is genuinely arresting... required reading for journalists, politicians, academics and anyone who listens to them."
-Steven Pinker, Professor of Psychology, Harvard University, author of How the Mind Works and The Stuff of Thought
"Well-researched, well-reasoned, and engagingly written. I'm not making any predictions, but we can only hope that this brilliant book will shock the human race, and particularly the chattering expert class, into a condition of humility about proclamations about the future."
-John Mueller, author of Overblown and Political Scientist, Ohio State University
"As Yogi Berra observed, 'it's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.' In this brilliant and engaging book, Dan Gardner shows us how tough forecasting really is, and how easy it is to be convinced otherwise by a confident expert with a good story. This is must reading for anyone who cares about the future."
-Paul Slovic, Professor of Psychology, University of Oregon
"If you are paying a lot of money for forecasting services-be they crystal ball gazers or math modelers or something in between-put your orders on hold until you have had a chance to read this book-a rare mix of superb scholarship and zesty prose. You may want to cancel, or at least re-negotiate the price. For the rest of us who are just addicted to what experts are telling us everyday in every kind of media about what the future holds, Future Babble will show you how to be a bit smarter than what you usually hear."
-Philip Tetlock, author of Expert Political Judgement and Mitchell Professor of Organizational Behavior, Hass School of Business, University of California
Review
"Gardner leaves plenty of prognosticators squirming on history's thumbtack."
Review
"Hugely enjoyable." -James Harkin, Financial Times
Review
"Gardner not only skewers the pundits who predicted constantly rising oil prices and a Japanese takeover of the world, he also explains why we buy their books." -Jonathan Beard, New Scientist
Review
"A rare mix of superb scholarship and zesty prose . . . Future Babble will show you how to be a bit smarter than what you usually hear." -Philip Tetlock, Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley
Synopsis
"Genuinely arresting . . . required reading for journalists, politicians, academics, and anyone who listens to them."
-Steven Pinker, author of How the Mind Works
We are awash in predictions. In newspapers, blogs, and books; on radio and television. Every day experts tell us how the economy will perform next year, if housing sales will grow or shrink, and who will win the next election. Predictions are offered about the climate, food, technology, and the world our grandchildren will inhabit. And we can't get enough of it.
Drawing on research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics, award-winning journalist Dan Gardner explores our obsession with the future. He shows how famous pundits, "hedgehogs" who stick to one big idea no matter how circumstances change, become expert at explaining away predictions that are wrong while "foxes," who are more equivocal in their judgments, are simply more accurate.
About the Author
Dan Gardner is a columnist and senior writer for the Ottawa Citizen and the author of The Science of Fear. He has received numerous awards for his writing, including the Michener Award. Gardner lives in Ottawa.