Synopses & Reviews
As social theorist Drucker pointed out, every few hundred years a sharp transformation occurs during which society rearranges itself in a variety of aspects--its worldview, its basic values, its social and political structure, its arts, its key institutions. At the end of the 20th century, we are living through precisely such a transformation. The tremendous shift from an industrial to a knowledge economy and society is generating profound new challenges even as it opens up unprecedented vistas of possibility. This "age of social transformation," to the knowledge era, Drucker wrote, "will not come to an end with the year 2000--it will not even have peaked by then." Global Trends 2005
is a look at this transition now shaking the foundations of human society. At once a vision of the future and a handbook for understanding daily events, this book will change the way you see the world--and your place in it.
Every few centuries, the world changes in a profound way. Not just gradually, but dramatically and forever. Such periods of rapid change become the markers of new historical eras, as singular and profound as the shift from hunter-gatherer bands to agricultural society and the transition from the agricultural to the industrial era. In the West, we are now living through such a period as our economy moves from one of industry to that of knowledge. Global Trends 2005 looks at the changes this shift produces and lays out a roadmap for the next decade.
Includes bibliographical references (p. -322) and index.
About the Author
Michael J. Mazarr
is Director of the New Millennium Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington D.C. He is the author of North Korea and the Bomb
Table of Contents
I was getting tired of hearing all the gloom and doom about the next century's arrival. When I read the book Mike put together with the people at CSIS, I was happy to see some positive things about the coming years and I thought, "Here's a new twist on century 2000."
Introduction * Trend One: The Foundations * A Story of Two Worlds * A Price Spike Economy * The Foundation of Human Perception: Culture * Trend Two: The Engines of History * The Engines: Science and Technology * The Engines: Social and Psychological * Chaos and Complexity Theory * Where Are They Taking Us? * Trend Three: The Human Resources Economy * A New Kind of Economy * The Reorganization of Work * A Human Resources Economy: Other Aspects * Conflict in the Knowledge Era * Trend Four: An Era of Global Tribes * The Process of Globalization * Tribalism, Fragmentation and Pluralism * Tribalism Within Globalism * Trend Five: A Transformation of Authority * Phase One: The Decline of Hierarchical Authorities * Implications: Social Instability and a Political Crisis * Phase Two: The Rise of New Authorities * Trend Six: A Test of Human Psychology * "In Over Our Heads: " Postmodern Life and Human Psychology * A Habit of Alienation * The Psychology of a Media Age * The Pessimism Syndrome * Culture and Psychology * The Scenarios: Outcomes of World Politics in 2005 * The End of History * A New Medievalism * Depression Demagogues * Return of the Great Powers * Ecocatastrophe * A Concert of Powers * Conclusion