Synopses & Reviews
The first and last economic depression that you will experience in your lifetime is just ahead. The year 2009 will be the beginning of the next long-term winter season and the initial end of prosperity in almost every market, ushering in a downturn like most of us have not experienced before. Are you aware that we have seen long-term peaks in our stock market and economy very close to every 40 years due to generational spending trends: as in 1929, 1968, and next around 2009? Are you aware that oil and commodity prices have peaked nearly every 30 years, as in 1920, 1951, 1980 -- and next likely around late 2009 to mid-2010? The three massive bubbles that have been booming for the last few decades -- stocks, real estate, and commodities -- have all reached their peak and are deflating simultaneously.
Bestselling author and renowned economic forecaster Harry S. Dent, Jr., has observed these trends for decades. As he first demonstrated in his bestselling The Great Boom Ahead, he has developed analytical techniques that allow him to predict the impact they will have. The Great Depression Ahead explains "The Perfect Storm" as peak oil prices collide with peaking generational spending trends by 2010, leading to a more severe downtrend for the global economy and individual investors alike.
He predicts the following:
The economy appears to recover from the subprime crisis and minor recession by mid-2009 -- "the calm before the real storm."
Stock prices start to crash again between mid- and late 2009 into late 2010, and likely finally bottom around mid-2012 -- between Dow 3,800 and 7,200.
The economy enters a deeper depression between mid-2010 and early 2011, likely extending off and on into late 2012 or mid-2013.
Asian markets may bottom by late 2010, along with health care, and be the first great buy opportunities in stocks.
Gold and precious metals will appear to be a hedge at first, but will ultimately collapse as well after mid- to late 2010.
A first major stock rally, likely between mid-2012 and mid-2017, will be followed by a final setdback around late 2019/early 2020.
The next broad-based global bull market will be from 2020-2023 into 2035-2036.
Conventional investment wisdom will no longer apply, and investors on every level -- from billion-dollar firms to the individual trader -- must drastically reevaluate their policies in order to survive. But despite the dire news and dark predictions, there are real opportunities to come from the greatest fire sale on financial assets since the early 1930s. Dent outlines the critical issues that will face our government and other major institutions, offering long- and short-term tactics for weathering the storm. He offers recommendations that will allow families, businesses, investors, and individuals to manage their assets correctly and come out on top. With the right knowledge and preparation, you can take advantage of new wealth opportunities rather than get caught in a downward spiral. Your life is about to change for reasons outside of your control. You can't change the direction of the winds, but you can reset your sails!
"While being one of the most bullish and accurate forecasters for 20 years, Dent has always been warning that this great boom would end around 2008-2009. He now sees a bigger crash ahead and a deflationary environment that could ravage your portfolio. His warnings and predictions are well worth reading and taking seriously." -- David Bach, #1 New York Times bestselling author of Start Late, Finish Rich and The Automatic Millionaire
"While many talk of change these days, the real question lies in assessing in what direction things will change. Harry Dent does a masterful job using demographics and other key cycles to lay out where and when changes will come that will have sweeping ramifications for our pocketbooks, our way of life, and our nation. I cannot more highly recommend this book." -- Mark Sanford, governor of South Carolina
"Economists cannot forecast the economy very well, and most would admit it if their jobs didn't depend on the fiction that they can. So most economists become closet extrapolators, with some minor tweaking for visible pending developments and policy changes. Even I can see to the next corner pretty well, but I can't see around the corner. There is one exception, however. Demographics! Demography, as they say, is destiny. The reason is that you can see the future based on the facts of the present and demonstrated behavior. You can see the pig, or the pigs, going through the python. Harry Dent is the reigning expert in applying sophisticated demographic analysis to economic forecasting. His past record of getting it right speaks for itself. I hope he's wrong this time. I hope we don't have a great depression by 2010. But given his track record, I won't be betting against him." -- Robert D. McTeer, Distinguished Fellow, National Center for Policy Analysis, and former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Harry S. Dent, Jr., is President of the H. S. Dent Foundation, whose mission is Helping People Understand Change. In his first book, The Great Boom Ahead, published in 1992, he stood virtually alone in forecasting the unanticipated boom of the 1990s. He has since authored two bestselling books, The Roaring 2000s and The Roaring 2000s Investor. A Harvard MBA, Fortune 100 consultant, new venture founder and investor, and noted speaker, Dent offers a refreshingly positive view of the future with practical applications at all levels.
Dent outlines the critical issues that will face our government and other major institutions, offering long- and short-term tactics for weathering the storm. Readers can't change the direction of the winds, but Dent shows how they can reset their sails.
Harry S. Dent predicted our current economic crisis, and he foresees still more to come. He predicts that we are headed further towards a major depression reminiscent of Japan’s major recession more than a decade ago, from which their real estate market has yet to recover. With the current state of the stock market causing investors around the world to be nervous, and searching for answers, The Great Depression Ahead
offers important advice to help readers not just survive, but prosper in the face of the crash.
Dent has developed theories that have accurately predicted changes in the market. He is a frequent target of economists, yet with few exceptions, Dent has always been right about the market. With fully updated predictions and reflections on all that has happened since the hardcover came out in December of 2008, this is a book on the economic crisis that we can’t afford not to read.
About the Author
Harry S. Dent, Jr.
is the president of the H.S. Dent Foundation, whose mission is "Helping People Understand Change." He is the founder of HS Dent, which publishes the HS Dent Forecast and oversees the HS Dent Financial Advisors Network. He is the author of the New York Times
bestseller, The Great Depression Ahead
, as well as of The Great Boom Ahead
, in which he stood virtually alone in accurately forecasting the unanticipated "boom" of the 1990s. A Harvard MBA, Fortune 100 consultant, new venture investor, and noted speaker, Mr. Dent is a highly respected figure in his field.
Rodney Johnson is the president of HS Dent, an independent economic research and investment management firm. He oversees the daily operations of the companies and is a regular contributor to the HS Forecast and the HS Dent Perspective. A graduate of Georgetown University and Southern Methodist University, Mr. Johnson is a frequent guest on radio and television programs to discuss economic changes in the United States and around the world.
Table of Contents
Prologue: Simple Principles Drive Complex Change
Chapter 1. The Great Crash of Late 2009-2010...and the Next Great Depression to Follow
Chapter 2. The Fundamental Trends That Drive Our Economy: Demographic and Technology Cycles
Chapter 3. New Geopolitical, Commodity, and Recurring Cycles: With Likely Stock and Economic Scenarios for Years and Decades Ahead
Chapter 4. The Greatest Bubble Ever in Real Estate: The Demographics of Real Estate, the Greater Credit Crisis, and the Likely Depression Scenario Ahead
Chapter 5. Echo Boomers Continue to Move to the Southeast, Southwest, and Rockies: Opportunities for Businesses, Developers, and Municipalities in the Downturn
Chapter 6. Changing Global Demographic Trends: The Rising East and Emerging World Versus the Succession of Aging Western Nations
Chapter 7. The Clustering of Risks and Returns: Why Traditional Asset Allocation Strategies Will Fail Miserably in the Decade Ahead
Chapter 8. Investment, Business, and Life Strategies for the Great Winter: How to Profit in a Deflationary Economy
Chapter 9. The Political and Social Impacts of the Next Great Depression: The Coming Revolution and "New Deal" in the United States and Globally