Synopses & Reviews
This best-selling and up-to-date survey of decision analysis concepts and techniques is accessible to students with limited mathematical backgrounds. It is designed for advanced undergraduate and MBA-level courses in decision analysis and also for business courses in introductory quantitative methods. (Prerequisites: college algebra; introductory statistics.)
About the Author
'Robert T. Clemen is an Associate Professor at the Fuqua School of Business at Duke University. He has been an active contributor to the field of decision analysis since earning his Ph.D. at Indiana University in 1984 and is an authority in the use of expert information in risk analysis. Aside from his research interests, Bob has a strong focus on making decision analysis understandable to all students at all levels, ranging from creating teaching materials for high school students to teaching in executive education programs.'
Table of Contents
1. Introduction SECTION I - MODELING DECISIONS 2. Elements of Decision Problems 3. Structuring Decisions 4. Making Choices 5. Sensitivity Analysis 6. Creativity and Decision Structuring SECTION II - MODELING UNCERTAINTY 7. Probability Basics 8. Subjective Probability 9. Theoretical Probability Models 10. Using Data 11. Monte Carlo Simulation 12. Value of Information SECTION III - MODELING PREFERENCES 13. Risk Attitude 14. Utility Axioms, Paradoxes, and Implications 15. Conflicting Objectives I: Some Basic Techniques 16. Conflicting Objectives II: Multiattribute Utility Models 17. Conclusion and Further Reading Appendixes