Synopses & Reviews
A former senior editor at the Gallup Poll exposes how pollsters don't report public opinion, they manufacture it
Since the mid-1930s, Americans' opinions on everything from presidents to products have been a central part of news reporting. Today, the news media dominates the polling industry. David W. Moore--lauded as a scholarly crusader by Herbert Mitgang in the New York Times--exposes an industry intent on serving headlines rather than democracy and the sometimes disastrous consequences for all Americans, from the myth of public support for the invasion of Iraq to early presidential frontrunners selected not by voters but by pollsters.
In this presidential election year, Moore offers a fresh approach to the candidates' polling percentages including preelection that polls conceal rampant voter indecision. He profiles pollsters' tactics and demonstrates why public policy polls are almost always wrong. Going beyond a clear and critical argument for reform, Moore outlines steps to make polls deliver on their promise to monitor the pulse of democracy.
We all know that the corporate press conducts its own opinion polls and keeps headlining the results as if such stuff were news. What we don't know is just how sloppy--and misleading--most of that work really is. In this important book, veteran pollster David Moore meticulously notes the many defects in such polling.
--Mark Crispin Miller, author of Fooled Again: The Real Case for Electoral Reform
The next time your phone rings with questions from a pollster, beware. David Moore rings an alarm bell that democracy is endangered by the way the news media use public opinion polls. The Opinion Makers demonstrates whatJames Madison said 200 years ago--a misinformed public becomes a threat to democracy. --Ben H. Bagdikian, author of The New Media Monopoly
The Opinion Makers is the most important book about the making of polls and public opinion that I have read. A must read for scholars and citizens.
--Lance Bennett, Director, Center for Communication and Civic Engagement University of Washington, Seattle
You will never regard political polls the same after reading David W. Moore's devastating inside account of their severe limitations and misapplications. This book should be required reading for journalists, political junkies, students, scholars and citizens.
--Robert W. McChesney, author of The Political Economy of Media
Synopsis
On January 8, 2008, the date of the New Hampshire primary, media pollsters made their biggest prediction gaffe since dubbing Thomas Dewey a shoo-in to beat incumbent president Harry S. Truman. Eleven different polls forecast a solid win by Barack Obama; instead, Hillary Clinton took New Hampshire and recharged her candidacy. The months that followed only brought more dismal performances and contradictory results-undeniable evidence that something is terribly wrong with the polling industry today.
It's easy to spot the election polls that get it wrong. Equally misleading and often far more disastrous are polls misrepresenting public opinion on government policy. For instance, in the period leading up to the U.S. invasion of Iraq, every major media poll showed substantial public support for a preemptive strike. In truth, there was no majority of Americans calling for war.
For the first time, David W. Moore—praised as a "scholarly crusader" by the New York Times—reveals that pollsters don't report public opinion, they manufacture it. And they do so at the peril of our democratic process. While critics cry foul over partisan favoritism in the mainstream media, what's really at work is a power bias that polls legitimate by providing the stamp of public approval.
Drawing on over a decade's experience at the Gallup Poll and a distinguished academic career in survey research, Moore describes the questionable tactics pollsters use to create poll-driven news stories-including force-feeding respondents, slanting question wording, and ignoring public ignorance on even the most arcane issues. More than proof that the numbers do lie, The Opinion Makers clearly and convincingly spells out how urgent it is that we make polls deliver on their promise to monitor, not manipulate, the pulse of democracy.
About the Author
David W. Moore is a senior fellow of the Carsey Institute at the University of New Hampshire. A former senior editor of the Gallup Poll, where he worked for thirteen years, Moore also served as professor of political science at UNH and is the founder and former director of the UNH Survey Center. The author of two previous books, How to Steal an Election and The Superpollsters, Moore has also written for the New York Times, The Nation, and the Boston Globe. He lives in Durham, New Hampshire.