Synopses & Reviews
Scenarios are a widely used approach to aid strategic analysis. An innovative guide to new methods in scenario thinking, this book presents a detailed step-by-step account of the “intuitive logics” method for developing and using scenarios within organizations. The authors detail a range of methodological innovations and show how to apply the most relevant technique to a particular situation. The approach is based on a mix of both high-level research and top-level consultancy experience. The book focuses on the demonstration and illustration of practical steps in scenario development processes.
Scenario Thinking describes the logical bases of a range of scenario methods and provides detailed ‘road maps on how to implement them - together with practical examples of their application. The authors review the strengths and weaknesses of each method and detail the time and material resources that each method requires, providing a comprehensive overview of the most useful and successful methods at your organizations disposal.
Presents new methods in scenario thinking, based on a mix of high-level research and top-level consultancy experience. The authors describe the logical bases of a range of scenario methods and provide detailed ‘road maps’ on how to implement them – together with practical examples of their application.
About the Author
GEORGE WRIGHT is Professor of Management at Durham Business School, University of Durham, UK. He has consulted and provided management development programs on scenario thinking with organizations such as Bayer, HBoS, Thales, Scottish Power, Petronas, EADS, United Utilities and local government in the UK and Australia. He has published on scenario thinking in international journals, including Futures, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, International Journal of Forecasting, and Organization Studies. GEORGE CAIRNS is Head of School of Management at RMIT University, Australia. He has worked with scenario method and delivered workshops for organizations including National Air Traffic Services, South East England Development Agency, the Facility Management Association of Australia, and the Risk Management Institution of Australasia. He has contributed to a project exploring higher education futures for Romania, funded by the European Social Fund, and has published in international journals, including Technological Forecasting and Social Change and Futures.
Table of Contents
Why should the individual and organization practice scenario thinking?
Working with scenarios: introducing the basic method
Incorporating stakeholder values and facilitating critique of scenario storylines
Understanding stakeholder viewpoints.
Augmented scenario approaches: delving deeper and stretching wider
Scenarios and decision analysis
Creating robust strategies and robust organizations
The backward logic method of constructing extreme scenarios
Diagnosing organizational receptiveness