Synopses & Reviews
Replete with easy-to-understand examples ranging from the prediction of home runs in baseball using an hierarchical Bayesian statistics model to estimating the expected return at blackjack using control variables, this text functions as a complete consideration of simulation. Sheldon Ross provides broad yet thorough coverage of the subject, presenting the development of a simulation study to analyze models, and demonstrates that by using random variables and the concept of discrete events, it is possible to generate the behavior of a stochastic model over time. Also discussed are questions concerning when to stop a simulation, how much confidence can be placed in the results, and extensive new information on the presentation of the alias method for generating discrete random variables material not found in any other text. Students, practitioners, and researchers alike will find this text to have an important place in their research libraries.
* Presents the statistics needed to analyze simulated data as well as those needed for validating the simulation model
* Stresses variance reduction, including control variables and their relation to regression analysis
* Includes a chapter on Markov chain monte carlo methods
* Emphasizes the use of computers throughout the text
About the Author
Sheldon M. Ross is a professor in the Department of Industrial Engineering and Operations Research at the University of California, Berkeley. He received his Ph.D. in statistics at Stanford University in 1968 and has been at Berkeley ever since. He has published many technical articles and textbooks in the areas of statistics and applied probability. Among his texts are A First Course in Probability, Fourth Edition published by MacMillan, Introduction to Probability Models, Fifth Edition published by Academic Press, Stochastic Processes, Second Edition published by Wiley, and a new text, Introductory Statistics published by McGraw Hill. Professor Ross is the founding and continuing editor of the journal Probability in the Engineering and Informational Sciences published by Cambridge University Press. He is a Fellow of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics, and a recipient of the Humboldt US Senior Scientist Award.
Table of Contents
Elements of Probability.
Random Numbers.
Generating Discrete Random Variables.
Generating Continuous Random Variables.
The Discrete Event Simulation Approach.
Statistical Analysis of Simulated Data.
Variance Reduction Techniques.
Statistical Validation Techniques.
Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods.
Some Additional Topics.