Synopses & Reviews
IS GLOBALIZATION AN UNINTENDED RECIPE FOR WAR? Taking this question as its starting point, James Macdonalds When Globalization Fails offers a rich, original account of war, peace, and trade in the twentieth century—and a cautionary tale for the twenty-first. In the late nineteenth century, liberals exulted that the spread of international commerce would usher in prosperity and peace. An era of economic interdependence, they believed, would render wars too costly to wage. But these dreams were dashed by the carnage of 1914-1918. Seeking the safety of economic self-sufficiency, nations turned first to protectionism and then to territorial expansion in the 1930s—leading again to devastating conflict. Following the Second World War, the globalists tried once more. With the communist bloc disconnected from the global economy, a new international order was created, buttressing free trade with the informal supremacy of the United States. But this benign period is coming to an end. According to Macdonald, the global commerce in goods is a mixed blessing. It makes nations wealthier, but also more vulnerable. And while economic interdependence pushes toward cooperation, the resulting sense of economic insecurity pulls in the opposite direction—toward repeated conflict. In Macdonalds telling, the First World Wars naval blockades were as important as its trenches, and the Second World War can be understood as an inevitable struggle for vital raw materials in a world that had rejected free trade. Today Chinas economic and military expansion is undermining the Pax Americana that had kept economic insecurities at bay, threatening to resurrect the competitive multipolar world of the early twentieth century with all its attendant dangers. Expertly blending political and economic history and enlivened by vivid quotation, When Globalization Fails recasts what we know about the past and raises vital questions about the future.
Review
“Macdonald returns with a two-century history, noting how, continually, events and violence have shattered the notion that trade will bring peace among nations . . . He focuses on economic factors throughout: the hunger for coal, the thirst for petroleum, the passion for raw materials . . . Macdonald concludes with accounts of the rises (and increasing sways) of India and China and the enduring contention and concern in the region about access to the Strait of Malacca and the control of key Pacific islands . . . sharply focused, closely reasoned.”
—Kirkus
“Contrary to the liberal dream, globalization does not lead to One World, but to disruption. Globalization reached a peak in 1913; one year later, the world was at war. In his grand sweep through history, Macdonald makes a crucial point: The global commons does not organize itself; it needs a guardian and guarantor. When Britain shed that burden, the United States took over. Macdonald argues correctly that there is nobody else—neither Russia nor China, which are revisionist, not responsible powers. Only liberal empires take care of the whole. With global conflict rising, the United States has begun to grasp Macdonalds compelling logic: no protector, no peace. So the twenty-first century need not be a repeat of the twentieth. A smart book that skewers the conventional wisdom.”
—Josef Joffe, Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University and the author of The Myth of Americas Decline
“Macdonald presents a compelling thesis: Free trade and peace can prosper only under the protection of a single benign hegemon and a multipolar world is unstable. This is a book of great scope and ambition, and one of the most important to be published in recent years”
—Mervyn King, former governor of the Bank of England
Praise for A Free Nation Deep in Debt “Remarkable . . . [This] book could scarcely be more comprehensive . . . Since Macdonald was for many years a British investment banker, he has a hands-on feel for his subject. But he has not allowed his technical expertise to get in the way of his lucid prose: his argument is readily accessible to a lay reader. And that argument is convincing.” —Gordon S. Wood, The New York Review of Books “A profound and original work by an experienced financial practitioner . . . Macdonald has something exciting to teach all serious students of history—that the evolution of democratic institutions is not just about taxation and representation but also about investment.” —Niall Ferguson
Synopsis
A bold reinterpretation of twentieth-century history that is also an augury of the twenty-firstsIs globalization a recipe for war? In the nineteenth century, liberals exulted that the spread of commerce would usher in prosperity and peace, but these dreams were dashed by imperial squabbles, the carnage of 1914-18, and the protectionism, depression, and conflict that followed. In the wake of World War II, the globalists tried again. With the Communist bloc disconnected from the global economy, a new international order was created, buttressing free trade with the informal supremacy of the United States. But this benign period is coming to an end.
Expertly combining political, economic, and military history in the manner of Niall Ferguson and Paul Kennedy, James Macdonald stresses that if industrial nations are more prosperous, they are also more vulnerable. While a dependence on trade may push toward cooperation, the attendant insecurity pulls in the opposite direction—leading to conflict. In Macdonalds telling, World War Is naval blockades were as important as its trenches, and World War II was a struggle for raw materials in a world that had rejected free trade. Today, the Pax Americana that kept insecurities at bay is being undermined by Chinas rise, with potentially dangerous consequences. Rich in original historical analysis and enlivened by vivid quotation, When Globalization Fails recasts what we know about war, peace, and trade, and raises vital questions about the future.
About the Author
James Macdonald is a former investment banker and the author of A Free Nation Deep in Debt: The Financial Roots of Democracy (FSG, 2003). He lives in England.