Synopses & Reviews
Why Flip a Coin? Drawing on a host of research findings and scores of examplesfrom how to win a war to how to win the office football poolH. W. Lewis presents a host of brain-teasing problems and amusing scenarios that reveal the clever ways to avoid the chaos and anxiety of decision dilemmas. Inviting readers to play "The Dating Game," he shows how to make a fateful decision when you dont yet know what all your options are. Telling the classic stories of "The Prisoners Dilemma" and "The Lady or the Tiger?", he shows how to weigh the intentions of hostile competitors and effectively anticipate their next moves. "The prize for making better decisions than your opponent may be your own survival," he says. "It pays to practice before the stakes get that high." Like a brilliant detective uncovering the clues to a tricky mystery, Lewis unravels the systematic procedures you can use to separate the threads of options, consequences, probabilities, and preferences that will lead to the optimal choice. He points out the mistakes we so often make when facing a wide variety of decision-making pressures, and shows how to organize your thinking to achieve a clear state of mind when confronting any particular decision. Youll be amazed as Lewis examines the hidden patterns that profoundly influence legal decisions, the conduct of war, and the course of history itself. He shows how electoral systems can be manipulated to skew the choices and produce unintended results; how the concept of the random walk applies to the stock market; how scientific strategies can be used in gambling; and how understanding standard deviation and regression can lead to better predictions in both personal and professional life. If youd like to become a better decision-maker, your decision to read this thoroughly enjoyable book will be among the first in a long series of very good decisions.
Synopsis
"It is rare to come across a book that can truly be called fascinating, but here is one."-New Scientist
Why Flip a Coin?
What's the best way to choose the right spouse? . . . How can I increase my chances of winning the office football pool? . . . By what process should I choose a candidate in the Senate race? . . . Could I possibly make more money playing poker instead of the stock market?
Using examples gleaned from everyday life, noted physicist H. W. Lewis explains what science has discovered about the rules that govern good-and not-so-good-decision making. Full of provocative insights into human psychology and behavior, Why Flip a Coin? will leave you laughing-even as you're learning.
"Should you read this book or not? If you don't read it you will surely miss out on Lewis's flinty wit and sharp sense of irony. The choice is clear. You needn't even flip a coin."-The Sciences
"Lighthearted but far from flippant."-Amazon.com (Science Editor's Recommended Book)
Synopsis
Lighthearted but far from flippant.-Amazon.com (Science Editor's Recommended Book)
About the Author
H. W. LEWIS, Professor Emeritus of Physics at the University of California, Santa Barbara, received the 1991 American Institute of Physics Science Writing Award for Technological Risk. He is a member of the Defense Science Board and the President's Nuclear Safety Oversight Committee.
Table of Contents
Introduction vii
1 Basics: The First Cut 1
2 The Dating Game 4
3 Probability 12
4 Gains and Losses 23
5 Putting It All Together 31
6 Stability: The Social Island 42
7 The Prisoners’ Dilemma 48
8 Competitive Games 52
9 A Paradox 61
10 Rankings 67
11 Voting 73
12 Impossibility 83
13 Protecting the Future 89
14 Public Decisions 96
15 Apportionment 115
16 War: Lanchester’s Law 124
17 Fluctuations and Regression 131
18 Investing: The Stock Market 137
19 Gambling 150
20 Sports – Mainly Baseball 160
21 The Lady or the Tiger? 171
22 Law and Juries 178
23 Intro Redux 196
Index 199