Synopses & Reviews
Fans and fantasy league players, get your inside intelligence from the same source as many Major League front offices—BASEBALL PROSPECTUS.BASEBALL PROSPECTUS 2006 provides unprecedented original performance analysis of over 1,600 players, from stars at the top of their game to prospects vying for Rookie of the Year. It offers:
• In-depth, insightful essays on all 30 Major League Baseball clubs, with no-holds-barred evaluations of at least 50 players per organization
• Baseball Prospectuss exclusive (and deadly accurate) PECOTA projection system, forecasting the chances that a player will break out,
improve, or collapse
• In-depth features on the true costs of injuries, adventures in win expectancy, the limitations of statistical analysis—plus all our stats
explained!
The Baseball Prospectus team of cutting-edge analysts includes Mark Armour, Andrew Baharlias, Jim Baker, James Click, Clifford J. Corcoran, Clay Davenport, John Erhardt, Gary Gillette, Steven Goldman, Thomas Gorman, Gary Huckabay, Jay Jaffe, Rany Jazayerli, Christina Kahrl, Jonah Keri, Mark McClusky, Dave Pease, Dayn Perry, Nate Silver, and Keith Woolner.
Check out www.baseballprospectus.com for year-round baseball coverage.
Review
and#8220;Perhaps the gameand#8217;s most accurate prediction modeland#8221;
and#8212;Sports Illustrated
Review
“The überforecast of every player’s performance”
—Alan Schwarz, the New York Times The New York Times
Review
“Fearless heir... [to Bill James’s
Baseball Abstract]. This book swings so hard for the fences that even its whiffs are interesting.”
— Esquire magazine, in naming Baseball Prospectus 2005 one of the six best books of the year Esquire
Review
and#8220;The anduuml;berforecast of every playerand#8217;s performanceand#8221;
and#8212;Alan Schwarz, the New York Times
Review
“Baseball Prospectus is one of the first things I read every day.”
—Theo Epstein, Boston Red Sox
Review
“Perhaps the game’s most accurate prediction model”
—Sports Illustrated Sports Illustrated
Synopsis
It’s the gold standard of statistical guides, lauded by insiders:
“Baseball Prospectus is one of the first things I read every day.”—Theo Epstein, Boston Red Sox General Manager
“Baseball Prospectus has become the standard by which all scouting guides should be measured.”—Billy Beane, Oakland Athletics General Manager
And the outsiders who know:
“If a general manager hasn’t read Baseball Prospectus, he should be fired for incompetence.”—Michael Lewis, author of Moneyball
“The best book of its kind.”—Rob Neyer, ESPN.com
“I never cease to be blown away by the geniuses at Baseball Prospectus.” — Jayson Stark, ESPN
“The best book for preparing for a rotisserie draft.”—USA Today
Packed with statistics, analysis, and attitude, Baseball Prospectus is the essential guide for the 3.4 million serious fantasy baseball players, and the perfect season-long companion for the millions more fans who are looking to understand the inside game. Includes extensive performance analysis of 1,600 players—covering the majors, the minors, top 40 prospects, draft choices, and rookie ball—plus in-depth, insightful essays on all 30 major league clubs and gimlet-eyed evaluations of their top 50 players. With ballpark-adjusted stats, a deadly accurate projection system for forecasting a player’s performance, and more, Baseball Prospectus tells the real story of what happened on the field in 2005 and what it means for 2006.
About the Author
Baseball Prospectus Team of Experts on Baseball Talent includes, among others, Gary Huckabay, the founder of Baseball Prospectus; Chris Kahrl, a sports editor who lives in Washington, D.C.; and Dave Pease, who roots for Ryan Klesko in San Diego. Together, the roster of Baseball Prospectus writers consult to 26 of the 30 major league baseball teams.
Table of Contents
Contents
Foreword by Christina Kahrl iv
Tools
Statistical Introduction 1
by Keith Woolner, Clay Davenport, and Nate Silver
Rearranging PECOTA by Nate Silver 6
Teams
Arizona Diamondbacks 13
Atlanta Braves 31
Baltimore Orioles 48
Boston Red Sox 66
Chicago Cubs 83
Chicago White Sox 99
Cincinnati Reds 117
Cleveland Indians 133
Colorado Rockies 151
Detroit Tigers 167
Florida Marlins 182
Houston Astros 195
Kansas City Royals 209
Los Angeles Angels 226
Los Angeles Dodgers 242
Milwaukee Brewers 260
Minnesota Twins 276
New York Mets 293
New York Yankees 309
Oakland Athletics 326
Philadelphia Phillies 345
Pittsburgh Pirates 360
St. Louis Cardinals 377
San Diego Padres 391
San Francisco Giants 405
Seattle Mariners 420
Tampa Bay Devil Rays 435
Texas Rangers 451
Toronto Blue Jays 467
Washington Nationals 483
Fungoes
Where Does Statistical Analysis Fall Down? Reality and Perception by Gary Huckabay 499
Adventures in Win Expectancy by Keith Woolner 506
Iceberg Stories: The Business of Baseball, 2005-2006 by Andrew Bahrlias 515
Injury Accounting by Thomas Gorman 523
Top 50 Prospects by Rany Jazayerli, Dayn Perry, and Baseball Prospectus 531
Managers: The Dress Rehearsal by Steven Goldman, Christina Kahrl, and Keith Woolner 542
Team Name Key and Park Factors by Clay Davenport 544
Index 547
Biographies 553