and#8226; In-depth, insightful essays on all 30 Major League Baseball clubs, with no-holds-barred evaluations of at least 50 players per organization

and#8226; Baseball Prospectusand#8217;s exclusive (and deadly accurate) PECOTA projection system, forecasting the chances that a player will break out,

improve, or collapse

and#8226; In-depth features on the true costs of injuries, adventures in win expectancy, the limitations of statistical analysisand#8212;plus all our stats

explained!

The Baseball Prospectusteam of cutting-edge analysts includes Mark Armour, Andrew Baharlias, Jim Baker, James Click, Clifford J. Corcoran, Clay Davenport, John Erhardt, Gary Gillette, Steven Goldman, Thomas Gorman, Gary Huckabay, Jay Jaffe, Rany Jazayerli, Christina Kahrl, Jonah Keri, Mark McClusky, Dave Pease, Dayn Perry, Nate Silver, and Keith Woolner.

Check out www.baseballprospectus.com for year-round baseball coverage.

and#8212;Sports Illustrated

—Alan Schwarz, the New York Times

and#8212; Esquiremagazine, in naming Baseball Prospectus 2005one of the six best books of the year

and#8212;Alan Schwarz, the New York Times

and#8220;Baseball Prospectusis one of the first things I read every day.and#8221;and#8212;Theo Epstein, Boston Red Sox General Manager

and#8220;Baseball Prospectushas become the standard by which all scouting guides should be measured.and#8221;and#8212;Billy Beane, Oakland Athletics General Manager

And the outsiders who know:

and#8220;If a general manager hasnand#8217;t read Baseball Prospectus, he should be fired for incompetence.and#8221;and#8212;Michael Lewis, author of Moneyball

and#8220;The best book of its kind.and#8221;and#8212;Rob Neyer, ESPN.com

and#8220;I never cease to be blown away by the geniuses at Baseball Prospectus.and#8221;and#8212; Jayson Stark, ESPN

and#8220;The best book for preparing for a rotisserie draft.and#8221;and#8212;USA Today

Packed with statistics, analysis, and attitude, Baseball Prospectusis the essential guide for the 3.4 million serious fantasy baseball players, and the perfect season-long companion for the millions more fans who are looking to understand the inside game. Includes extensive performance analysis of 1,600 playersand#8212;covering the majors, the minors, top 40 prospects, draft choices, and rookie balland#8212;plus in-depth, insightful essays on all 30 major league clubs and gimlet-eyed evaluations of their top 50 players. With ballpark-adjusted stats, a deadly accurate projection system for forecasting a playerand#8217;s performance, and more, Baseball Prospectustells the real story of what happened on the field in 2005 and what it means for 2006.

Foreword by Christina Kahrl iv

Tools

Statistical Introduction 1

by Keith Woolner, Clay Davenport, and Nate Silver

Rearranging PECOTA by Nate Silver 6

Teams

Arizona Diamondbacks 13

Atlanta Braves 31

Baltimore Orioles 48

Boston Red Sox 66

Chicago Cubs 83

Chicago White Sox 99

Cincinnati Reds 117

Cleveland Indians 133

Colorado Rockies 151

Detroit Tigers 167

Florida Marlins 182

Houston Astros 195

Kansas City Royals 209

Los Angeles Angels 226

Los Angeles Dodgers 242

Milwaukee Brewers 260

Minnesota Twins 276

New York Mets 293

New York Yankees 309

Oakland Athletics 326

Philadelphia Phillies 345

Pittsburgh Pirates 360

St. Louis Cardinals 377

San Diego Padres 391

San Francisco Giants 405

Seattle Mariners 420

Tampa Bay Devil Rays 435

Texas Rangers 451

Toronto Blue Jays 467

Washington Nationals 483

Fungoes

Where Does Statistical Analysis Fall Down? Reality and Perception by Gary Huckabay 499

Adventures in Win Expectancy by Keith Woolner 506

Iceberg Stories: The Business of Baseball, 2005and#8211;2006 by Andrew Bahrlias 515

Injury Accounting by Thomas Gorman 523

Top 50 Prospects by Rany Jazayerli, Dayn Perry, and Baseball Prospectus531

Managers: The Dress Rehearsal by Steven Goldman, Christina Kahrl, and Keith Woolner 542

Team Name Key and Park Factors by Clay Davenport 544

Index 547

Biographies 553