Synopses & Reviews
"We all know we have seen the end of an era, and now we have courtside seats to watch the Endgame unfold. We are watching the end of Act I: The Debt Supercycle. Now we will get to see how Act II: The Endgame plays out."John Mauldin & Jonathan Tepper (Chapter 1, page 4)
Hundreds of books have been written about the financial crisis that engulfed the world after Lehman Brothers went bankrupt. But what if the bigger financial crisis is ahead of us, not behind us?
As John Mauldin and Jonathan Tepper deftly illustrate in this controversial book, the crisis was more than a half-century in the making. The Great Financial Crisis, however, was merely Act I. Act II has now begun.
The massive household deleveraging and historic shift of private debt onto government balance sheets now underway all over the world represents the end of a sixty-year global Debt Supercycle. We have now entered the Endgame, a time when bankruptcies and defaults (disguised as "restructuring") will not be of households and companies but of governments. The stakes are now higher. The coming crises will offer policymakers few good choices and many bad ones. It will require extraordinary clarity and courage from leaders, courage that so far is largely completely lacking.
Yet, despite the authors' dark forecast, the message in Endgame is not all gloom and doom. The book lays out positive steps governments can take to weather the worst of the stormy days ahead, minimize the inevitable pain and discomfort most of us can expect to experience, and chart a bold new course to sustained economic growth and prosperity.
It also offers investors an abundance of useful analysis and expert advice on how to protect their assets during the worst of it and prosper from the many new opportunities that will emerge globally as they present themselves.
In Part 2, the authors take readers on a country-by-country tourincluding the United States, UK, European countries, and Japanclearly explaining the problems each country faces, as well as the good and bad policy options open to each, and the investment pitfalls and opportunities likely to be found in each national economy.
Whether you call it the Great Recession, the Great Financial Crisis, or the Global Debt Crisis, what we are experiencing is unlike anything seen in eighty years. Now is not the time to succumb to panic and superstition. It is a time for courage and intelligent decision making informed by the brand of rational analysis and wisdom you'll find in Endgame.
Review
In
Endgame: The End of the Debt Supercycle and How It Changes Everything, Mauldin and Tepper pull no punches and get directly the point. ...
Endgame is a veritable trip around the world, as Mauldin lays out the uncomfortable choices facing nearly every major country. While Mauldin’s analysis of the American debt problem is sobering, his comments on Europe are downright frightening…Given the noise dominating the newswires, it is refreshing to find clear, coherent thinking. Our compliments to Messrs. Mauldin and Tepper on a job well done.”
—Charles Sizemore, HS Dent Research Analyst and Editor of the Sizemore Investment Letter
Review
“This is a wonderful history and description of gold and it would be in everyones interest to understand its conclusion.”
Review
“An outstanding book about the coming transfer of the economic world power due to the decline of the world supremacy of the United States. Written from an economic point of view it leads to the same result as in the famous book of Samuel Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations. Willem Middelkoops best book so far.”
Review
“Willem Middelkoop and
The Big Reset is right in the thick of the action! Great book; awesome statistical reference to go along with the analysis.”
Review
“[A] readable, persuasive book. . . . Recommended.”
Synopsis
Greece isn't the only country drowning in debt. The Debt Supercycle—when the easily managed, decades-long growth of debt results in a massive sovereign debt and credit crisis—is affecting developed countries around the world, including the United States. For these countries, there are only two options, and neither is good—restructure the debt or reduce it through austerity measures.
Endgame details the Debt Supercycle and the sovereign debt crisis, and shows that, while there are no good choices, the worst choice would be to ignore the deleveraging resulting from the credit crisis. The book:
- Reveals why the world economy is in for an extended period of sluggish growth, high unemployment, and volatile markets punctuated by persistent recessions
- Reviews global markets, trends in population, government policies, and currencies
Around the world, countries are faced with difficult choices. Endgame provides a framework for making those choices.
Synopsis
Praise for Endgame"This is an extremely powerful, sobering, well written and highly accessible book. It will demonstrate to you why there are no painless solutions to the mounting debt problems around the world—something that too many people are yet to realize. It will take you on a well-documented journey through the debt super cycle, making stops around the world and at critical junctures. And it is a must-read for anyone wishing to understand the global debt dynamics and ways to protect against its bad consequences. "
—Mohamed A. El-Erian, CEO, PIMCO; author of When Markets Collide
"No one has thought more creatively about the economy. Mauldin's weekly newsletter is a must-read and his book is even more important if you want to understand a rapidly changing world."
—Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the House of Representatives
"Successful investors explore all possibilities. You should read this book so you can succeed in case the Endgame is our future."
—Jim Rogers, author of A Gift to My Children
"I read everything John Mauldin writes. He travels the world and shares his financial stories like a good friend sharing a drink. Mauldin is that rarity—a skeptical optimist—who calls 'em straight and rewards his clients and fans."
—Rich Karlgaard, Publisher and Columnist, Forbes magazine
Greece is a basket case, Ireland on life support, and Japan a bug in search of a windshield. In the times ahead, the global sovereign debt and credit crisis will continue to spread like wildfire. And while no nation, developed or emerging, can escape the pain, the extent of the disaster and how it plays itself out will vary from country to country. Endgame provides the road map ahead.
In Endgame, authors Mauldin and Tepper:
- Reveal why the world economy is in for a protracted period of slow growth, high unemployment, volatile markets, and persistent recessions
- Review global markets, country-by-country, detailing population trends, government policies, currency outlooks, and more
- Offer investors practical advice on how to protect their assets through the worst of it and profit from emerging opportunities
Synopsis
What is money really worth anymore? This compelling study outlines the rise of fiat money and its associated economic implications. Until 1914, almost all major currencies were backed by gold but as the costs of World War I grew, most European countries were forced to abandon the gold standard and fiat money was born.
Since the US took the dollar out of the gold standard in 1971, gold became financial enemy number one. The author provides enough circumstantial evidence to claim a secret War on Gold, ongoing since the London Gold Pool of the 1960s. It also explains golds traditional role as the anchor of financial systems.
To combat the economic fallout of the credit crisis, governments have allowed their budgetary deficit to increase dramatically. In order to address that problem they have to sell enormous amounts of bonds. As more and more investors stop buying them, central banks have to step up to the plate. By turning on the (digital) printing presses more frequently they are in the process to monetize the debts.
Due to all the emergency support, government debts have risen to a dangerous level, as one country after another gets into financial difficulties. Piling more and more bad debt onto the balance sheets of central banks is not a sustainable way to revive the economy. Middelkoop highlights the process as part of our economic endgame which will eventually lead to a big reset of our worlwide financial system.
Synopsis
A system reset is imminent. Probably even before 2020, the worlds financial system will need to find a different anchor. The dollar has been at the center of the monetary system since the Second World War, but decades of money printing have caused a gradual but relentless dollar devaluation. In a desperate attempt to maintain this dollar system, the United States has waged a secret war on gold since the 1960s. China and Russia have pierced through the American smokescreen around gold and the dollar and are no longer willing to continue lending to the United States. Both countries have been accumulating enormous amounts of gold, positioning themselves for the next phase of the global financial system.
There are only two options: a financial reset planned well in advance, or a hastily implemented one on the back of a dollar crisis. The United States, realizing the dollar will lose its prominent role, seems to be planning a monetary reset that will surprise many. It will be designed to keep the United States in the driving seat, but will include strong roles for the Euro and Chinas Renminbi. And it is likely gold will be reintroduced as one of the pillars of this next phase of the global financial system. Insiders claim gold could be revalued up to $7,000 per troy ounce during this process.
About the Author
JOHN MAULDIN is a renowned financial expert, a multiple New York Times best-selling author, and a pioneering online commentator. His weekly e-newsletter, Thoughts From The Frontline, was one of the first publications to provide investors with free, unbiased information and guidance. Today, it is one of the most widely distributed investment newsletters in the world, translated into Chinese, Spanish and Italian. He is regularly seen on TV and in national print media. President of Millennium Wave Investments, he is the father of seven children (five adopted) and lives in Dallas, Texas.
JONATHAN TEPPER is the founder and Chief Editor of Variant Perception, a macroeconomic research group catering to hedge funds and high-net-worth individuals.
Table of Contents
Acknowledgments xiii
Introduction: Endgame 1
Part One: The End of the Debt Supercycle 11
Chapter 1: The Beginning of the End 15
Chapter 2: Why Greece Matters 31
Chapter 3: Let’s Look at the Rules 45
Chapter 4: The Burden of Lower Growth and More Frequent Recessions 73
Chapter 5: This Time Is Different 91
Chapter 6: The Future of Public Debt: An Unsustainable Path 109
Chapter 7: The Elements of Deflation 133
Chapter 8: Inflation and Hyperinflation 157
Part Two: A World Tour: Who Will Face Endgame First? 175
Chapter 9: The United States: The Mess We Find Ourselves In 181
Chapter 10: The European Periphery: A Modern-Day Gold Standard 215
Chapter 11: Eastern European Problems 233
Chapter 12: Japan: A Bug in Search of a Windshield 247
Chapter 13: The United Kingdom: How to Quietly Inflate Away Your Debt 261
Chapter 14: Australia: Could It Follow in Ireland's Footsteps? 273
Chapter 15: Unintended Consequences: Loose Monetary Policies and Emerging Markets 283
Conclusion: Investing and Profiting from Endgame 293
Epilogue: Some Final Thoughts 297
Notes 301
About the Authors 309
Index 311