The Oxford Handbook of Applied Bayesian Analysis

This Handbook explores contemporary Bayesian analysis across a variety of application areas. Chapters written by leading exponents of applied Bayesian analysis showcase the scientific ease and natural application of Bayesian modelling, and present solutions to real, engaging, societally important and demanding problems. The chapters are grouped into five general areas: Biomedical and Health Sciences; Industry, Economics and Finance; Environment and Ecology; Policy, Political and Social Sciences; and Natural and Engineering Sciences, and Appendix material in each touches on key concepts, models, and techniques of the chapter that are also of broader pedagogic and applied interest.

"The breadth of topics covered in this collection is impressive, from plant demography to nuclear power plant maintenance to the reliability of train doors. Some fascinating application areas were ones I had never encountered previously, such as music-to-score transcription: creating a written musical score from raw audio signals, as discussed be Cemgil et al. The inclusion of an expert elicitation example by Choy et al. was also very welcome." -- JASA

Mike West is an international research and educational leader in statistical science whose areas of expertise span a range of areas in Bayesian statistical modelling and computational statistics, and inter-disciplinary applications in science, biomedicine, finance and other areas. West was a faculty member at the leading Bayesian centre at Warwick University UK in the 1980s, and led the development of one of the main centres worldwide - at Duke University -- during the 1990s and into the Bayesian 21st century. As distinguished professor of statistical science at Duke University, West is broadly engaged in national and international professional activities, his research continues to emphasise Bayesian methodology development and applications of complex stochastic modelling, while his major professional focus remains the engagement and mentoring of future statistical scientists.

Part I - Biomedical and Health Sciences

1. Flexible Bayes Regression of Epidemiologic Data, David Dunson

2. Bayesian Modelling for Matching and Alignment of Biomolecules, Peter Green, Kanti Mardia, Vysaul Nyirongo and Yann Ruffieux

3. Bayesian Approaches to Aspects of the Vioxx Trials: Non-ignorable Dropout and Sequential Meta-Analysis, Jerry Cheng and David Madigan

4. Sensitivity Analysis in Microbial Risk Assessment: Vero-cytotoxigenic E.coli O157 in Farm-Pasteurised Milk, Jeremy Oakley and Helen Clough

5. Mapping Malaria in the Amazon Rain Forest: a Spatio-Temporal Mixture Model, Alexandra Schmidt, Jennifer Hoeting, João Batista Pereira and Pedro Paulo Vieira

6. Trans-Study Projection of Genomic Biomarkers in Analysis of Oncogene Deregulation and Breast Cancer, Dan Merl, Joseph Lucas, Joseph Nevins, Haige Shenz and Mike West

7. Linking Systems Biology Models to Data: a Stochastic Kinetic Model of p53 Oscillations, D. A. Henderson, R.J. Boys, C.J. Proctor and D.J. Wilkinson

Part II - Industry, Economics and Finance

8. Bayesian Analysis and Decisions in Nuclear Power Plant Maintenance, Elmira Popova, David Morton, Paul Damien and Tim Hanson

9. Bayes Linear Uncertainty Analysis for Oil Reservoirs Based on Multiscale Computer Experiments, Jonathan Cumming and Michael Goldstein

10. Bayesian Modelling of Train Doors Reliability, Antonio Pievatolo and Fabrizio Ruggeri

11. Analysis of Economic Data With Multiscale Spatio-temporal Models, Marco Ferreira, Adelmo Bertoldey and Scott Holan

12. Extracting S&P500 and NASDAQ Volatility: The Credit Crisis of 2007-2008, Hedibert Lopes and Nicholas Polson

13. Futures Markets, Bayesian Forecasting, and Risk Modeling, José Mario Quintana, Carlos Carvalho, James Scott and Thomas Costigliola

14. The New Macroeconometrics: A Bayesian Approach, Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, Pablo Guerrón-Quintana and Juan Rubio-Ramírez

Part III - Environment and Ecology

15. Assessing The Probability of Rare Climate Events, Peter Challenor, Doug McNeall and James Gattiker

16. Models for Demography of Plant Populations, James Clark, Dave Bell, Michael Dietze, Michelle Hersh, Ines Ibanez, Shannon LaDeau, Sean McMahon, Jessica Metcalf, Emily Moran, Luke Pangle and Mike Wolosin

17. Combining Monitoring Data and Computer Model Output in Assessing Environmental Exposure, Alan Gelfand and Sujit K. Sahu

18. Indirect Elicitation From Ecological Experts: From Methods and Software to Habitat Modelling and Rock-Wallabies, Samantha Low Choy, Justine Murray, Allan James and Kerrie Mengersen

19. Characterizing the Uncertainty of Climate Change Projections Using Hierarchical Models, Claudia Tebaldi and Richard Smith

Part IV - Policy, Political and Social Sciences

20. Volatility in Prediction Markets: A Measure of Information Flow in Political Campaigns, Carlos Carvalho and Jill Rickershauser

21. Paternity Testing Allowing for Uncertain Mutation Rates, Philip Dawid, Julia Mortera and Paola Vicard

22. Bayesian Analysis in Item Response Theory Applied to a Large-scale Educational Assessment, Dani Gamerman, Tufi Soares and Flávio Gonçalves

23. Sequential Multi-location Auditing and the New York Food Stamps Program, Karl Heiner, Marc Kennedy and Anthony O'Hagan

24. Bayesian Causal Inference: Approaches to Estimating the Effect of Treating Hospital Type on Cancer Survival in Sweden Using Principal Stratification, Donald Rubin, Xiaoqin Wang, Li Yin and Elizabeth Zell

Part V - Natural and Engineering Sciences

25. Bayesian Statistical Methods for Audio and Music Processing, A. Taylan Cemgil, Simon Godsill, Paul Peeling and Nick Whiteley

26. Combining Simulations and Physical Observations to Estimate Cosmological Parameters, Dave Higdon, Katrin Heitmann, Charles Nakhleh and Salman Habib

27. Probabilistic Grammars and Hierarchical Dirichlet Processes, Percy Liang, Michael Jordan and Dan Klein

28. Designing and Analyzing a Circuit Device Experiment Using Treed Gaussian Processes, Herbert Lee, Matthew Taddy, Robert Gramacy and Genetha Gray

29. Multi-state Models for Mental Fatigue, Raquel Prado

Index