Synopses & Reviews
In 1980, the iconoclastic economist Julian Simon challenged celebrity biologist Paul Ehrlich to a bet. Their wager on the future prices of five metals captured the publicand#8217;s imagination as a test of coming prosperity or doom. Ehrlich, author of the landmark book The Population Bomb, predicted that rising populations would cause overconsumption, resource scarcity, and famineand#8212;with apocalyptic consequences for humanity. Simon optimistically countered that human welfare would flourish thanks to flexible markets, technological change, and our collective ingenuity.and#160;Simon and Ehrlichand#8217;s debate reflected a deepening national conflict over the future of the planet. The Bet weaves the two menand#8217;s lives and ideas together with the eraand#8217;s partisan political clashes over the environment and the role of government. In a lively narrative leading from the dawning environmentalism of the 1960s through the pivotal presidential contest between Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan and on into the 1990s, Paul Sabin shows how the fight between Ehrlich and Simonand#8212;between environmental fears and free-market confidenceand#8212;helped create the gulf separating environmentalists and their critics today. Drawing insights from both sides, Sabin argues for using social values, rather than economic or biological absolutes, to guide societyand#8217;s crucial choices relating to climate change, the planetand#8217;s health, and our own.
Review
“The Bet provides an important contribution to canonical works in environmental history and environmental studies. It is a remarkable story of a critical moment in the environmental movement, and Sabin has told it expertly.”—Frederick R. Davis, Florida State University
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“In telling the story of Ehrlich and Simon's bet, Paul Sabin offers a compelling analysis of two very different, but equally important, ways of understanding the future of humans and the environment that still shape the world of environmental politics today."—Jay Turner, Wellesley College
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"Paul Sabin's The Bet is wonderfully conceived, sharply focused and entertainingly executed. In the story of a famous bet between two men of large egos, he manages to touch on the most basic problems we face in trying to come to terms with our current environmental crisis."—Richard White, author of Railroaded: The Transcontinentals and the Making of Modern America
Review
"A refreshingly readable and consistently insightful portrait of the ferocious American politics of global population and resources since the 1960s - and of two implacable enemies who strangely resembled one another."—J.R. McNeill, author of Something New Under the Sun: An Environmental History of the 20th-century World
Review
"Paul Sabin vividly and creatively explores the half century battle over environmental policy by telling the story of the clash —and famous “bet” — between Paul Ehrlich, the prophet of population doom, and Julian Simon, the advocate of technology and markets. My own wager is that The Bet will also provide a very valuable and timely framework for understanding todays great environmental debates. In fact, I will double down on that bet!”— Daniel Yergin, Pulitzer-prize winning author of The Quest: Energy, Security, and the Remaking of the Modern World and of The Prize
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"Have you ever wondered why environmental politics became so bitterly divided along partisan party lines? Why does the left believe that climate change will harm us, while the right is certain that technological innovation will prevail? Paul Sabins smart, compelling analysis in The Bet helps us understand these ideological divides. Beautifully written, non-partisan, and filled with surprising insights, The Bet is essential reading for anyone who wants to understand modern environmental politics."—Nancy Langston, author of Toxic Bodies: DES and the Lessons of History
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“[A] gem of a book. . . Sabin provides a fascinating and highly readable archaeology of political science in America.”—Publishers Weekly, starred review
Review
“Valuable . . . clear-eyed.” —Jonathan V. Last, The Wall Street Journal
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“Not so fast, argues historian Paul Sabin, who in The Bet attempts to use their wager to narrate parallel biographies of Simon and Ehrlich, as well as a US political environmental history of the past half-century. The result is a revealing tale.”—Jon Christensen, Nature
Review
“A brilliant idea for a book. . . . Sabin has produced an absorbing narrative of how two peoples ‘clashing insights unleashed on the world polarised views of the environmental and resource threats we face in the 21st century.”—Fred Pearce, New Scientist
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“In his new book, The Bet, Paul Sabin has managed to write a work of serious historical scholarship about a vexing political issue — and make it read like a character-driven novel.”—David Leonhardt, The New York Times, Economix blog
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"Informative, charming, and highly readable."—Tyler Cowen, Marginal Revolution David Leonhardt - The New York Times, Economix blog
Review
"A wonderful new book . . . . and a fantastic introduction to population-resource debates of the late-twentieth century. It will be the required first reading on this topic in my future courses."—Roger Pielke, Jr., The Energy Collective Tyler Cowen - Marginal Revolution
Review
“An illuminating, judicious, and engaging examination of the conflict between environmentalists and their critics over the past five decades.”—Glenn C. Altschuler, Tulsa World Roger Pielke, Jr. - The Energy Collective
Review
"While Sabin crafts a fine tale of the contrasting personalities and views of the protagonists, he does not neglect their interesting common ground.”—Fred Pearce, New Scientist Glenn C. Altschuler - Tulsa World
Review
“Provides surprising insights for anyone involved in addressing the worlds ‘wicked problems. Most of all, it gave me new perspective on why so many big challenges get bogged down in political battles rather than being focused on problem-solving."—Bill Gates, founder of Microsoft, "The Best Books I Read in 2013," TheGatesNotes.com
Review
For more on the book and its author, visit Paul Sabin's website.
Review
"Beautifully written, non-partisan, and filled with surprising insights, The Bet is essential reading for anyone who wants to understand modern environmental politics."—Nancy Langston, author of Toxic Bodies: DES and the Lessons of History
Synopsis
Are we headed for a world of scarce resources and environmental catastrophe, or will innovation and markets yield greater prosperity
About the Author
Paul Sabin is associate professor, Department of History, Yale University. He was founding director of the Environmental Leadership Program and is the author of Crude Politics: The California Oil Market, 19001940.