Creating a Eurasian Union Economic Integration of the Former Soviet Republics

Creating a Eurasian Union offers a detailed analysis of the economies of the Customs Union of Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan and the proposed Eurasian Union. The authors employ econometric analysis of business cycles and cointegration analysis to prove the fragility of the union's potential economic success. By providing a brief description of the economic integration of the former Soviet republics, this pioneering work analyses the on-going trial and error processes of market integration led by Russia.

Vymyatnina and Antonova's distinctive argument is the first consistent analysis of the emerging Eurasian Union. They incorporate both a non-technical summary of the integration process and previous research and analytical comments, as well as a thorough empirical analysis of the real data on the economic development of the participating countries, to caution that the speed of integration might undermine the feasibility of the Eurasian Union.

Yulia Vymyatnina is Professor of Economics and Deputy Head of the Department of Economics at the European University at St. Petersburg, Russia. In 2005 she received the Professor B. L. Ovsievitch Prize for her econometric research on the Bank of Russia's monetary policy. Vymyatnina is author of Theories of Money: Post-Crisis Lessons (in Russian) and co-author of Workbook and Study Guide to Economics.

Daria Antonova is an Analyst-Econometrician for Brand Science, part of the BBDO Group. She has an MA in Economics from the European University at St. Petersburg, Russia, and a BSc in Physics from Saint Petersburg State University, Russia. Antonova continues macroeconometric research as a hobby.

Introduction
1. Post-Soviet Integration: Fictive and Derivative
2. Business Cycles Synchronization of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan
Conclusions and Policy Recommendations
Appendix 1. Additional Information on the Customs Union Trade (2011-2012
Appendix 2. Data Sources
Appendix 3. Integration, Fractional Integration, Cointegration of Real De-Trended GDP
Appendix 4. More Results of Business Cycles and Correlations Analysis (Graphic Representation)
Appendix 5. Business Cycles Correlation: GDP, GDP Decomposition and Growth Rates
Appendix 6. VAR, Variance Decomposition and Impulse-Response Analysis of Real GDP and GDP Decomposition