Deterring Cyber Warfare: Bolstering Strategic Stability in Cyberspace

Deterrence theory was well developed during the Cold War for the deterrence of kinetic attacks. While the deterrence of cyber attacks is one of the most important issues facing the United States and other nations, the application of deterrence theory to the cyber realm is problematic.This study offers an introduction to cyber warfare and a review of the challenges associated with deterring cyber attacks. Mazanec and Thayer recommend efforts in three specific areas to aid the deterrence of major cyber attacks: by cultivating beneficial norms for strategic stability; by continuing efforts in the area of improving cyber forensics and defences; and, finally, by developing and communicating a clear declaratory policy and credible options for deterrence-in-kind so as to make escalation unavoidable and costly. This timely study reflects increased international interest in cyber warfare, and is based on the recognition that information networks in cyberspace are becoming operational centres of gravity in armed conflict.

While the deterrence of cyber attacks is one of the most important issues facing the United States and other nations, the application of deterrence theory to the cyber realm is problematic. This study introduces cyber warfare and reviews the challenges associated with deterring cyber attacks, offering key recommendations to aid the deterrence of major cyber attacks.

Brian M. Mazanec, PhD, is an Adjunct Professor at George Mason University and a senior defence analyst with the U.S. government. Brian's academic research has been published in numerous journals, presented at international conferences, and used as part of the curriculum in the United States Army War College's Department of Military Strategy, Planning and Operations.

Bradley A. Thayer, PhD, is a Professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Iceland. His research encompasses a broad range of professional interests in the fields of International Relations Theory and International Security.

1. Introduction
2. Cyberspace and Cyber Warfare
3. Deterrence Theory and the Challenge of Applying It to Cyber Warfare
4. Chapter Four: Cultivating Beneficial Norms for Strategic Stability
5. Continuing Efforts to Improve Cyber Forensics and Bolster Defences
6. Developing a Declaratory Policy and Offensive Cyber Weapons
7. Conclusions