Synopses & Reviews
Fundamental change occurs most often in one of two ways: as a "fatal discontinuity," a sudden catastrophic event that is potentially world changing, or as a persistent, gradual trend. Global catastrophes include volcanic eruptions, viral pandemics, wars, and large-scale terrorist attacks; trends are demographic, environmental, economic, and political shifts that unfold over time. In this provocative book, scientist Vaclav Smil takes a wide-ranging, interdisciplinary look at the catastrophes and trends the next fifty years may bring. This is not a book of forecasts or scenarios but one that reminds us to pay attention to, and plan for, the consequences of apparently unpredictable events and the ultimate direction of long-term trends.
Smil first looks at rare but cataclysmic events, both natural and human-produced, then at trends of global importance: the transition from fossil fuels to other energy sources; demographic and political shifts in Europe, Japan, Russia, China, the United States, and Islamic nations; the battle for global primacy; and growing economic and social inequality. He also considers environmental change in some ways an amalgam of sudden discontinuities and gradual change and assesses the often misunderstood complexities of global warming.
Global Catastrophes and Trends does not come down on the side of either doom-and-gloom scenarios or techno-euphoria. Instead, relying on long-term historical perspectives and a distaste for the rigid compartmentalization of knowledge, Smil argues that understanding change will help us reverse negative trends and minimize the risk of catastrophe.
Review
"At home alike in both the natural and human sciences, the author gives an incisive analysis of the way change occurs both in terms of unpredictable discontinuities and gradually unfolding trends. His treatment of trends over the next fifty years is especially interesting, and his pages on America's 'retreat' informed and convincing. Smil offers not predictions but a balanced, holistic treatment of what may be ahead for humanity. Anyone interested in history, demography, economics, environmentalism, or risk analysis, along with globalization, will find this a 'must-read' book." Bruce Mazlish, Professor of History Emeritus, MIT
Review
"This book is the best antidote I have found to the universal tendency to be overconfident in predicting the future. Smil leads the reader through a wide assortment of natural, biomedical, technological, and geopolitical developments that could shape the next fifty years. While analysts, corporations, and governments will continue to make confident fifty- or hundred-year predictions of GDP, energy consumption, greenhouse gases, and similar quantities, Smil shows readers why such predictions should not be believed." M. Granger Morgan, Head, Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University
Review
"The past 50 years have been exceptionally stable and unusually benign in global terms, Smil says, but this will change. The risks of what are, in his view, the two most likely cataclysmic future threats nuclear war and pandemic influenza can be substantially reduced, he believes. He does not see terrorism as a great risk. He also notes that mega-eruptions of volcanoes are quite rare and that the risk of a near-Earth object striking our planet is even more remote and can be handled. Instead, it is unfolding trends that worry him most and occasion the book's most striking observations." Charles Perrow, American Scientist (read the entire American Scientist review)
Synopsis
A wide-ranging, interdisciplinary look at global changes that may occur over the next fifty years whether sudden and cataclysmic world-changing events or gradually unfolding trends.
Synopsis
andlt;Pandgt;A wide-ranging, interdisciplinary look at global changes that may occur over the next fifty years--whether sudden and cataclysmic world-changing events or gradually unfolding trends.andlt;/Pandgt;
Synopsis
andlt;Pandgt;Fundamental change occurs most often in one of two ways: as a andquot;fatal discontinuity,andquot; a sudden catastrophic event that is potentially world changing, or as a persistent, gradual trend. Global catastrophes include volcanic eruptions, viral pandemics, wars, and large-scale terrorist attacks; trends are demographic, environmental, economic, and political shifts that unfold over time. In this provocative book, scientist Vaclav Smil takes a wide-ranging, interdisciplinary look at the catastrophes and trends the next fifty years may bring. Smil first looks at rare but cataclysmic events, both natural and human-produced, then at trends of global importance, including the transition from fossil fuels to other energy sources and growing economic and social inequality. He also considers environmental change--in some ways an amalgam of sudden discontinuities and gradual change--and assesses the often misunderstood complexities of global warming. andlt;Iandgt;Global Catastrophes and Trendsandlt;/Iandgt; does not come down on the side of either doom-and-gloom scenarios or techno-euphoria. Instead, Smil argues that understanding change will help us reverse negative trends and minimize the risk of catastrophe. andlt;/Pandgt;
About the Author
Vaclav Smil is Distinguished Professor at the University of Manitoba and the author of many books, including Energy in Nature and Society: General Energetics of Complex Systems; Energy at the Crossroads: Global Perspectives and Uncertainties; The Earth's Biosphere: Evolution, Dynamics, and Change; and Energies: An Illustrated Guide to the Biosphere and Civilization, all of which are published by The MIT Press. He was awarded the 2007 Olivia Schieffelin Nordberg Award for excellence in writing and editing in the population sciences.