It will be six years before we know if
Kim Stanley Robinson’s first colonial voyage to Mars is on schedule and 802,681 years before we can render a verdict on H. G. Wells’s
Eloi and Morlocks, but for many beloved speculative books, those far-flung years are now in our past, and their predictions are ripe for judgement. Some authors' prognostications have proven excessively bleak or excessively optimistic (we are still waiting for our hoverboards), while others make us wonder if there are secret time travelers in our midst.
From Ursula K. Le Guin’s gloomy 2002 Portland to John Brunner’s overpopulated 2010 NYC , here are eight of our favorite books that made predictions about futures past, with varying degrees of accuracy.
The Lathe of Heaven
by Ursula K. Le Guin
Written in 1971
Set in 2002
Featuring a man whose dreams have the power to change reality, The Lathe of Heaven’s 2002 Portland begins as an overpopulated, impoverished nightmare-scape. When a manipulative psychiatrist takes control of the man's powers, 2002 reality, or unreality, shifts as his dreams, calculated to create peace on earth, reduce the population, and end racism, reshape the world in unintended ways.
Most accurate predictions: War in the Middle East, endless rain in Portland
2001: A Space Odyssey
by Arthur C. Clarke
Written in 1968
Set in 2001
Humanity has developed cryogenic freezing technology, AI, and advanced space travel. Two scientists are en route to Saturn with three hibernating colleagues on a spaceship maintained by an artificially intelligent computer named Hal, who becomes a bit of a fly in the ointment when he runs afoul of the Three Laws of Robotics.
Most accurate prediction: Tablets/iPads. We still have no definitive proof that human intelligence was seeded by an alien monolith 3 million years ago.
Looking Backward: 2000-1887
by Edward Bellamy
Written in 1888
Set in 2000
Julian West falls asleep in 1887 and wakes up in the year 2000 to find Boston transformed into a socialist utopia where wealth and goods are equally distributed among people; working hours are significantly shortened, particularly for those working in dangerous or unpleasant jobs; people pay for goods with “credit” cards; and everyone retires at 45.
Most accurate prediction: Credit, or debit, cards
Fahrenheit 451
by Ray Bradbury
Written in 1953
Set after 1960 (1990 or 2022 in later editions)
As entertainment technology advances and attention spans shorten, books are replaced by giant flat-screen entertainment devices called "parlor walls.” Consuming media that isn't mindless is seen as aberrant and books are burned to save society from controversial materials. Bookworms who can’t abide the idiocy move to the country, where they can live as introverted drifters, read in peace, and, eventually, help rebuild the world.
Most accurate predictions: Flat-screen TVs and 3-D movies
Stand on Zanzibar
by John Brunner
Written in 1968
Set in 2010
The stresses of overpopulation have led to a resurgence of eugenics, extremism, poverty, and an increased interest in genetic engineering. Huge corporations dominate the business and political landscapes with the help of supercomputers, and take over the management of poor countries in order to make money and improve the standards of living.
Most accurate prediction(s): President Obomi, electric cars, EDM, terrorist attacks in the U.S., satellite TV, decriminalized marijuana... and too many other predictions to enumerate. Brunner just might be a time traveler.
Paris in the Twentieth Century
by Jules Verne
Written in 1863
Set in 1961
Paris in the 20th century is technologically advanced, but devoid of art and culture. A literature major realizes that he should have majored in engineering. His disappointed family gets him a job in banking — which he fails at. He crashes at a friend's apartment, where he lives in poverty while writing poetry that is rejected by every publisher in Paris.
Most accurate predictions: The rise of the suburbs, internal combustion engine vehicles, wind power, fax machines, the record industry, the writing life. (Is that time machine built for two? Verne gives Brunner a run for his money as Most Likely to Be a Time Traveler.)
It Can’t Happen Here
by Sinclair Lewis
Written in 1935
Set in 1936
Buzz Windrip, a populist demagogue modeled on Huey Long, defeats Franklin Delano Roosevelt in the 1936 presidential election by promising to save the country from crime, welfare fraud, a liberal press, and Mexico, while bringing back greatness. It Can’t Happen Here’s protagonist, a journalist, watches the cheering crowds at Buzz’s rallies in horror before eventually fleeing to Canada to join the resistance.
Most accurate predictions: No comment
1984
by George Orwell
Written in 1949
Set in 1984
Totalitarianism is the political system du jour and Big Brother's party controls his cult of personality with the help of omnipresent surveillance, thought police, and a state-run media that is big on alternative facts. To succeed in the party, citizens learn to doublethink — to accept contradictory facts that would usually cause cognitive dissonance.
Most accurate predictions: The public acceptance of alternative facts and doublethink, mass surveillance