Synopses & Reviews
Local governments are hard-pressed to balance their budgets in the 1990s. Part of any budget-balancing effort is accurate forecasting. In this new work, Howard Frank introduces time-tested forecasting techniques from the private sector and military in a local forecasting environment. In a lucid, user-friendly treatment, Frank shows how simple and complex methods can be put to use in the contemporary local government setting. Through examples--many of them from his own research--the author delineates the strengths and weaknesses of quantitative and non-quantitative forecasting methods. Frank also shows how these techniques can be used to monitor changes in public programs--an increasingly important part of contemporary budget execution.
Frank does not assume an extensive mathematical or statistical background on the part of the reader--indeed, a forecast neophyte will have no difficulty understanding the text. Questions at the end of each chapter focus the reader on the major concepts and provide insights on practical applications within the urban setting. A cornerstone of the work is that local forecasters must be intelligent experimenters with the new tools--there is no canned advice that applies to all cities and forecast situations. But with application of forecasting approaches treated in this unique work, local budgeters--and those in training to become budgeters--will be able to adopt forecasting approaches that have been underutilized in local government.
Synopsis
Local governments are facing increasingly difficult fiscal constraints in the 1990s. Facing these constraints with enhanced forecasting capacity will be an absolute necessity. In a lucid style, Frank discusses how forecasting methods that have been successfully used in business and the military can be transplanted into the local government setting. The book's treatment of simple and complex forecasting approaches is non-mathematical and is written for those without extensive statistical or forecasting background. Frank introduces a theoretical framework for forecast adoption that shatters many misconceptions that currently retard advancement of local government forecasting and shows how local budgeters can provide incentives in the budgetary process to improve forecasting efforts throughout their cities.
Synopsis
A lucid, practical discussion of how forecasting methods that have been used successfully in business and the military can be applied with equal success in local government budgeting.
Description
Includes bibliographical references (p. [201]-208) and index.
About the Author
HOWARD A. FRANK is Assistant Professor of Public Administration at Florida International University.
Table of Contents
Preface
Introduction
Establishing a Framework for Forecast Improvement
Nonextrapolative Approaches and Long-Range Forecasting
Time Series Methods: Part I
Time Series Models Part: II: The Box-Jenkins ARIMA Approach
Time Series Models Part III: Forecast and Program Monitoring
An Introduction to Causal Approaches
Forecast Implementation: A Divide and Conquer Approach
Index