Synopses & Reviews
According to the World Bank, more than 170 million people have risen out of poverty in China in the last twenty years--more than anywhere, in any period, in the history of the world. China's markets have opened to the West and the nation has begun to accept foreign partnerships and investment as well. Already China is the world's third largest economy and America's biggest trading partner in Asia. The path China takes over the coming decades will have a profound impact on business and the economy in the United States and around the world. In this book, two experts in scenario development present three versions of what China's future might look like and what that will mean for the governments and companies that will be doing business with or in China. James Ogilvy and Peter Schwartz have established international reputations as pioneers of scenario development--a blend of research, trend analysis, and well-tutored imagination that has become an integral part of strategic planning for many of today's top companies. Their clients include Royal Dutch/Shell, AT IBM, and Motorola. In this book, they draw on a range of studies conducted for companies anxious to understand the future consequences of the decisions they're making today with respect to China.The authors present their scenarios in an absorbing narrative form, like histories written twenty years from now. They explain the predetermined elements, assumptions, and variables that underlie each scenario. They also draw implications and make suggestions about how companies can use each scenario to plan business strategy. Their insights into China's future will help global business managers, strategists, and government policy professionals prepare for what many predict will be the Asian Century.
Review
"...anyone concerned with the future of the region is likely to find this a useful read." (Long Range Planning, Vol.33, 2000)
Review
"It still amazes me how well the scenario process works in getting the practitioner to a place not accessed by other strategic thought processes. Whether the reader is a China novice or expert, this collection of scenarios will expand one's strategic thought horizons." —Tom Davis, vice president and chief economist, Motorola
"This book provides a very interesting look at possible future Chinas. Three scenarios, all plausible, suggest how very different the outcomes could be." —A.W. Marshall, advisor for net assessment, United States Office of the Secretary of Defense
"What makes China so interesting-and so unpredictable-is that opposite scenarios often have almost equal plausibility. Anyone trying to divine China's future will find this study both provocative and informative." —Orville Schell, longtime observer of China, author, and dean of the Graduate School of Journalism, University of California at Berkeley
Synopsis
As it emerges from centuries of social, military, and political strife, China--which represents one-fifth of the world's population and its third largest economy--is poised to play a major role in global business. But what will that role be? In this book, two experts, who have created business scenarios for some of the world's largest organizations--including Royal Dutch/Shell, AT&T, IBM, and Motorola--present three very informed versions of how China's future may unfold in the coming years and what it means to the rest of the world. These scenarios provide a foundation on which today's companies can build sound business strategies for years to come.
Synopsis
Da China ein F nftel der Weltbev lkerung stellt, wird es nicht nur einen gro en Einflu auf den Weltmarkt aus ben, sondern auch wesentlich auf die Volkswirtschaften Europas und Amerikas einwirken. James Ogilvy und Peter Schwartz stellen in China's Future drei faszinierende Szenarien zu Chinas Zukunft vor. Szenario Nr. 1 basiert auf einer dezentralisierten stadtbezogenen Wirtschaft, Nr. 2 zeigt die Vetternwirtschaft als Ausgangspunkt der neuen Wirtschaft und Nr. 3 zeichnet China, wie es im Sumpf der Korruption versinkt. Die Autoren analysieren ganz genau, welche Auswirkungen jede einzelne dieser M glichkeiten auf die Weltwirtschaft h tte. Es bleibt nur die Frage unbeantwortet, f r welchen Weg sich China entscheidet.
Synopsis
Click here to read the preface from this book.
About the Author
JAMES OGILVY and PETER SCHWARTZ are partners in Global Business Network (GBN), a consulting and research firm that is devoted to helping clients develop business strategies that fit the emerging realities of global markets. They are responsible for the widespread use of business scenarios, a process they pioneered in the early 1990s and which Schwartz made popular through his book The Art of the Long View.
Table of Contents
Preface.
Acknowledgements.
Introduction: China in the 21st Century: The World's Biggest Story.
THE WAY OF CHINA.
China Basics.
Driving Forces.
The Worms in the Core.
SCENARIOS OF THE FUTURE OF CHINA.
An Introduction of Scenarios and Development Models.
Scenario One: China Web.
Scenario Two: The New Mandarins.
Scenario Three: The Thief of Beijing.
IMPLICATIONS HOW TO USE THESE SCENARIOS FOR OUR CHILDREN.