Dire Predictions Understanding Global Warming

Periodic reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) evaluate the risk of climate change brought on by humans. But the sheer volume of scientific data remains inscrutable to the general public, particularly to those who may still question the validity of climate change. In just over 200 pages, this practical text presents and expands upon the essential findings of the IPCC’s 5^th Assessment Report in a visually stunning and undeniably powerful way to the lay reader. Scientific findings that provide validity to the implications of climate change are presented in clear-cut graphic elements, striking images, and understandable analogies.

Periodic reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) evaluate the risk of climate change brought on by humans. But the sheer volume of scientific data remains inscrutable to the general public, particularly to those who may still question the validity of climate change. In just over 200 pages, this practical text presents and expands upon the essential findings in a visually stunning and undeniably powerful way to the lay reader. Scientific findings that provide validity to the implications of climate change are presented in clear-cut graphic elements, striking images, and understandable analogies.

The Second Edition covers the latest climate change data and scientific consensus from the Fifth Assessment Report and integrates links to media and active learning to capture learning opportunities for students. The text is also available in various eText formats, including an upgrade option from MasteringGeography.

Dr. Michael E. Mann is Distinguished Professor of Meteorology at Penn State University, with joint appointments in the Department of Geosciences and the Earth and Environmental Systems Institute (EESI). He is also director of the Penn State Earth System Science Center (ESSC).

Dr. Mann received his undergraduate degrees in Physics and Applied Math from the University of California at Berkeley, an M.S. degree in Physics from Yale University, and a Ph.D. in Geology & Geophysics from Yale University. His research involves the use of theoretical models and observational data to better understand Earth's climate system.

Dr. Mann was a Lead Author on the Observed Climate Variability and Change chapter of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Scientific Assessment Report in 2001 and was organizing committee chair for the National Academy of Sciences Frontiers of Science in 2003. He has received a number of honors and awards including NOAA's outstanding publication award in 2002 and selection by Scientific American as one of the fifty leading visionaries in science and technology in 2002. He contributed, with other IPCC authors, to the award of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize. He was awarded the Hans Oeschger Medal of the European Geosciences Union in 2012 and was awarded the National Conservation Achievement Award for science by the National Wildlife Federation in 2013. He made Bloomberg News' list of fifty most influential people in 2013. He is a Fellow of both the American Geophysical Union and the American Meteorological Society.

Dr. Mann is author of more than 160 peer-reviewed and edited publications, and has published two books including Dire Predictions: Understanding Global Warming in 2008 and The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars: Dispatches from the Front Lines in 2012. He is also a co-founder and avid contributor to the award-winning science website RealClimate.org.

Lee R. Kump is a Professor in the Department of Geosciences, and an associate of the Earth System Science Center and Astrobiology Research Center at the Pennsylvania State University. A native of Minnesota, he received his bachelor's degree in geophysical sciences from the University of Chicago in 1981, and his Ph.D. in marine sciences from the University of South Florida in 1986. While in Florida he spent two summers as a geologist with the United States Geological Survey's Fisher Island Station. In August of 1986 he joined the faculty at Penn State.

Dr. Kump is a Fellow of the Geological Societies of America and London, and a member of the American Geophysical Union, the Geochemical Society, and the Geochemistry Division of the American Chemical Society. His research has been funded by the Environmental Protection Agency, the National Science Foundation, NASA, the Gas Research Institute, the Petroleum Research Fund of the American Chemical Society, and Texaco. Dr. Kump became Associate Director of the CIAR Earth System Evolution Program in 2004. Dr. Kump's primary research effort is in the development of numerical models of global biogeochemical cycles. His early work focussed on the carbon and sulfur cycles, and on the feedbacks that regulate atmospheric oxygen levels. More recently his emphasis has shifted to the study of the dynamic coupling between global climate and biogeochemical cycles. He studies the long-term evolution of the oceans and atmosphere, using a combination of field work, laboratory analysis, and numerical modeling.

The relative impacts of humans and nature on climate

Taking action in the face of uncertainty

Why is it called the greenhouse effect?

Feedback loops compound the greenhouse effect of carbon dioxide

What are the important greenhouse gases, and where do they come from?

Greenhouse gases on the rise

Could the increase in atmospheric CO2 be the result of natural cycles?

It’s getting hotter down here!

Where is all that heat going?

Is our atmosphere really warming?

Back to the future

Suffocating the ocean

Weren’t scientists warning us of a coming ice age only decades ago?

How does modern warming differ from past warming trends?

Welcome to the Anthropocene

What can a decade of western North American drought tell us about the future?

Signs of things to come? The 2012 North American heat wave

• The 2003 European heat wave

• Does a cold snap in Peoria invalidate global warming?

• A tempest in a greenhouse

• The vanishing snows of Kilimanjaro

• The last interglacial

• How to build a climate model

Profiles: James Hansen, Warren Washington, Stephen Schneider, and Susan Solomon

Comparing climate model predictions with observations

Regional vs global trends

Some climates disappear as others emerge

 “Fingerprints” distinguish human and natural impacts on climate

Part 2 Climate Change Projections

How sensitive is the climate?

Fossil-fuel emissions scenarios

The Faux Pause

Past IPCC projections—how did they do?

The next century

The geographical pattern of future warming

Tipping points, irreversibility, and abrupt climate change

Carbon-cycle feedbacks

Melting ice and rising sea level

Future changes in extreme weather

Stabilizing atmospheric CO2

Part 3 The Impacts of Climate Change

The rising impact of global warming

Is it time to sell that beach house?

Ecosystems

Coral reefs

The highway to extinction?

Too much and too little

Is warming from carbon dioxide leading to more air pollution?

War

Famine

Pestilence and death

Earth, wind, and fire

Too wet and too hot

The polar meltdown

Part 4 Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change

Is global warming the last straw for vulnerable ecosystems?

What is the best course for the coming century?

It’s the economy, stupid!

A finger in the dike

Keeping the water flowing

A hard row to hoe

Part 5 Solving Climate Change

Solving global warming

Where do all those emissions come from?

Keeping the power turned on

On the road again

Building green

Reducing industrial CO2 pollution

The water–energy nexus

Greener acres

Forests

Waste not, want watts?

Geoengineering

But what can I do about it?

Sustainability success stories

What’s your carbon footprint?

Global problems require international cooperation

Can we achieve sustainable development?

The ethics of climate change

The known unknowns and the unknown unknowns

The urgency of climate change