Synopses & Reviews
Forecasting--the art and science of predicting future outcomes--has become a crucial skill in business and economic analysis. This volume introduces the reader to the tools, methods, and techniques of forecasting, specifically as they apply to financial and investing decisions.
Synopsis
With an emphasis on 'earnings per share' this data-oriented book covers financial forecasting, understanding financial data, strategies such as share buybacks and R&D spending, creating efficient portfolios and hedging stock holdings with financial futures.
About the Author
John B. Guerard, Jr., is Director of Quantitative Research at McKinley Capital Management, Inc., in Anchorage, Alaska, specializing in quantitative models for stock selection and portfolio construction. For twenty years, he has served as a financial analyst, consultant, and executive, in such organizations as Drexel Burnham Lambert, Inc., Daiwa Securities Trust Co., Vantage Global Advisors, and Bryn Mawr Capital Management, Inc. He has taught courses in finance and investment at Rutgers University, New York University, and Lehigh University, among others, and has published in such journals as International Journal of Forecasting, Research in Finance, and Management Science. He is author or co-author of Handbook of Financial Decision Making (Probus Publishing Company, 1989), Forecasting Sales (JAI Press, 1994), Corporate Financial Policy and R&D Management (Wiley, 2005), Quantitative Corporate Finance (Springer, 2007), and editor of The Handbook of Portfolio Construction (Springer, 2009).
Table of Contents
Chapter 1: Why do we forecast?.- Chapter 2: Regression Analysis and Forecasting Models.- Chapter 3: An Introduction to Time Series Modeling and Forecasting.- Chapter 4: Regression Analysis and Multicollinearity: Two Case Studies.- Chapter 5: Multiple Time Series Analysis and Causality Testing.- Chapter 6: A Case Study of Portfolio Construction using the USER Data and the Barra Aegis System.- Chapter 7: More Efficient Portfolios Featuring the USER Data and an Extension to Global Data and Investment Universes.- Chapter 8: Forecasting World Stock Returns and Improved Asset Allocation.- Chapter 9: Summary and Conclusions.