Synopses & Reviews
The necessity of understanding and improving judgement and decision making is of central concern to researchers in a growing range of fields - public policy, law, business, medicine, psychology, engineering, and others. This book, which presupposes no formal training, brings together many of the most crucial articles on judgement and decision making, carefully selected and organised, together with section introductions and bridging commentary. The variety of problems discussed is wide: for example, medical diagnosis, marital conflict, the Camp David negotiations, radiation risk, and public health policy. Judgement and Decision Making: An Interdisciplinary Reader constitutes an accessible introduction to this important body of work for students and teachers, as well as for laypeople interested in the implications of the new findings for their own ways of judging and deciding.
Review
"The three papers in this section are excellent...In this highly readable paper, Dawes draws on examples from a number of disparate fields to discuss the well known, though surprising, finding that simple weighted means of predictor variables produce more accurate forecasts than experts who are basing their judgment on the same variables." Internationsl Journal of Forcasting
Synopsis
Researchers in a growing number of fields--public policy, law, business, medicine, psychology, engineering, and others--are working to understand and improve human judgment and decision making. This book, which presupposes no formal training, brings together a selection of key articles in the area, with careful organization, introduction and commentaries. Issues involving medical diagnosis, weather forecasting, labor negotiations, risk, public policy, business strategy, eyewitnesses, and jury decisions are treated in this largely expanded volume. This is a revision of Arkes and Hammond's 1986 collection on judgment and decision making. Updated and extended, the focus of this volume is interdisciplinary and applied.
Synopsis
Researchers in a growing number of fields--public policy, law, business, medicine, psychology, engineering, and others--are working to understand and improve human judgment and decision making. This book, which presupposes no formal training, brings together a selection of key articles in the area, with careful organization, introduction and commentaries. Issues involving medical diagnosis, weather forecasting, labor negotiations, risk, public policy, business strategy, eyewitnesses, and jury decisions are treated in this largely expanded volume. This is a revision of Arkes and Hammond's 1986 collection on judgment and decision making. Updated and extended, the focus of this volume is interdisciplinary and applied.
Table of Contents
Part I. Introduction and Overview: 1. Multiattribute evaluation W. Edwards and J. R. Newman; 2. Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases A. Tversky and D. Kahneman; 3. Coherence and correspondence theories in judgment and decision making K. R. Hammond; 4. Enhancing diagnostic decisions J. A. Swets; Part II. Applications in Public Policy: 5. Illusions and mirages in public policy R. H. Thaler; 6. The psychology of sunk cost H. R. Arkes and C. Blumer; 7. Value-focused thinking about strategic decisions at BC Hydro R. L. Keeney and T. L. McDaniels; 8. Making better use of scientific knowledge: separating truth from Justice K. R. Hammond, L. O. Harvey and R. Hastie; Part III. Applications in Economics: 9. Choices, values and frames D. Kahneman and A. Tversky; 10. Who uses cost-benefit rules of choice? Implications for the normative status of microeconomic theory R. P. Larrick, R. E. Nisbett and J. N. Morgan; 11. Does studying economics inhibit cooperation? R. H. Frank, T. Gilovich and D. T. Regan; Part IV. Legal Applications: 15. Capturing policy in hearing-aid decisions by audiologists J. Doyle and S. A. Thomas; 16. Physicians' use of probabilistic information in a real clinical setting J. J. J. Christensen-Szalanski and J. B. Bushyhead; 17. On the elicitation of preferences for alternative therapies B. J. McNeil, S. G. Pauker, H. C. Sox and A. Tversky; 18. Enhanced interpretation of diagnostic images D. J. Getty, R. M. Pickett, C. J. D'Orsi and J. A. Swets; Part VI. Experts: 19. Reducing the influence of irrelevant information on experienced decision makers G. J. Gaeth and J. Shanteau; 20. Expert judgment: some necessary conditions and an example H. J. Einhorn; 21. The expert witness in psychology and psychiatry D. Faust and J. Ziskin; Part VII. Forecasting and Prediction: 22. What forecast (seems to) mean B. Fischhoff; 23. Proper and improper linear models R. M. Dawes; 24. Seven components of judgmental forecasting skill T. R. Stewart and C. M. Lusk; Part VIII. Bargaining and negotiation: 25. The judgment policies of negotiators and the structure of negotiation problems J. L. Mumpower; 26. The effect of agents and mediators on negotiation outcomes M. H. Bazerman, M. A. Neale, K. L. Valley, E. J. Zajac, and Y. M. Kim; Part IX. Risk: 27. Risk within reason R. J. Zeckhauser and W. K. Viscusi; 28. Risk perception and communication B. Fischhoff, A. Bostrom and M. J. Quadrel; 29. Perceived risk trust and democracy P. Slovic; Part X. Research Methods: 30. Value elicitation: is there anything in there? B. Fischhoff; 31. The overconfidence phenomenon as a consequence of informal experimenter-guided selection of almanac items P. Juslin; 32. The a priori case against graphology: methodological and conceptual issues M. Bar-Hillel and G. Ben-Shakhar; Part XI. Critiques and New Directions I: 33. The two camps on rationality H. Jungermann; 34. On cognitive illusions and their implications W. Edwards and D. von Winterfeldt; 35. Reasoning the fast and frugal way: models of bounded rationality G. Gigerenzer and D. G. Goldstein; 36. Judgment and decision making in social context: discourse processes and rational inference D. J. Hilton and B. R. Slugoski; Part XII. Critiques and New Directions II: 37. Why we still use our heads instead of formulas B. Kleinmuntz; 38. Nonconsequentialist decisions J. Baron; 39. Algebra and process in the modelling of risky choice L. L. Lopes; 40. The theory of image theory: an examination of the central conceptual structure T. Connolly and L. R. Beach.