Synopses & Reviews
This classic text, now in its third edition, has been widely used as an introduction to probability. Its main aim is to present a straightforward introduction to the main concepts and applications of probability at an undergraduate level. Historically, the early analysts of games of chance found the question 'What is the fair price for entering this game?' as natural a question as 'What is the probability of winning it?'. This book differs from many textbooks in that the author takes as the starting point for the subject's development expectation rather than the traditional probability measure approach. All the main concepts of a first course in probability are covered including probability measures, independence, conditional probability, the basic limit theorems, and Markov processes. Throughout, the author stresses the importance of applications and includes numerous examples covering a range of difficulties. Little is required in the way of prerequisites - a basic exposure to calculus and matrix algebra will be sufficient for any student to enjoy this first course in probability.
Synopsis
This book is a complete revision of the earlier work Probability which ap- peared in 1970. While revised so radically and incorporating so much new material as to amount to a new text, it preserves both the aim and the approach of the original. That aim was stated as the provision of a 'first text in probability, de- manding a reasonable but not extensive knowledge of mathematics, and taking the reader to what one might describe as a good intermediate level'. In doing so it attempted to break away from stereotyped applications, and consider applications of a more novel and significant character. The particular novelty of the approach was that expectation was taken as the prime concept, and the concept of expectation axiomatized rather than that of a probability measure. In the preface to the original text of 1970 (reproduced below, together with that to the Russian edition of 1982) I listed what I saw as the advantages of the approach in as unlaboured a fashion as I could. I also took the view that the text rather than the author should persuade, and left the text to speak for itself. It has, indeed, stimulated a steady interest, to the point that Springer-Verlag has now commissioned this complete reworking.