Synopses & Reviews
In 1976, Yale Hirsch predicted a fifteen-year super booma move in the stock market of 500% or more. His forecast proved accurate as the market rose and continued upward, eventually posting growth over 1,000% just before the tech crash in 2000.
History has a way of repeating itself, especially in the financial markets. The American economy, and subsequently the world economy, has always existed in a cycle of boom and bust: gold, grain, oil, technology, and most recently, real estate, have all bubbled and popped. The key to investing profitably is spotting macroeconomic historical trends and positioning to reap the benefits.
In Super Boom, Jeffrey Hirsch, President of the Hirsch Organization and Editor in Chief of the Stock Trader's Almanac, unveils the next market expansion. Building on his father's research from 1976, Hirsch has discovered that meteoric rises in stock indices are due to specific catalysts predominantly outside of the financial markets. Step-by-step, Hirsch puts together the pieces of this puzzle by revealing the central drivers of a super boom, namely:
Inflationwhile it may be at bay for the time being, the massive injection of money by the government, in response to the global financial crisis and the Great Recession, as well as wartime spending, will eventually create an inflationary environment
Peace between major warsdespite continuing violence in Iraq and Afghanistan, U.S. troop withdrawals remain on schedule, and military presence in these countries will be winding down over the next several years
New enabling technologieswhile no one can say for sure where the next cultural paradigm-shifting technologies will come from, energy technology and/or biotechnology could lead the way
As markets and economies struggle over the next several years, remember to keep your eye on the future and get ready for the coming super boom and the next 500% move in the market. With this book as your guide, you'll benefit from the insights that only Jeffrey Hirsch can provide and be in the best position possible to prosper from the profitable opportunities that lie ahead.
Synopsis
Jeff will first discuss the boom and bust cycle of the past century and how that has led to the conditions under which such a radical proclamation can be made and made accurately. That covered, Jeff will delve into other such bold predictions (right and wrong) such as Robert Prechter, Glassman & Hasset (Dow 36,000), and finally Yale Hirsch's prediction in the 1970s that there would be 500% move in the Dow. Yale was correct and his prediction and reasoning are reprinted here with new careful analysis by Jeff and a string of parallels between that prediction and the current economic climate. The book will then cover Jeff's Dow 38,820 prediction in more detail than ever before and discuss the best investment strategies to position for and profit from super boom.
Synopsis
SUPER BOOM"Jeff Hirsch delivers a 500% effort in Super Boom. Unless you're closed minded or comatose, there is a lot, lot more here than any investment reader can normally hope for. The visuals and data alone are worth many times the price."
—KEN FISHER, founder and CEO, Fisher Investments, Forbes "Portfolio Strategy" columnist, five-time New York Times bestselling author
"Super Boom reminds the reader of the power of compounding. DJIA 38,820 by 2025 might sound like an outrageous level, but the implied sub-9% compound annual growth rate (following a decade of decline) makes the target appear more attainable. Within these pages, Jeff demonstrates that he has learned a lot from his father and has inherited the reputation as a renowned and respected market historian."
—SAM STOVALL, Chief Investment Strategist, Standard & Poor's Equity Research
"As a kid I taught Jeff how to catch big rainbow trout in Montana. In Super Boom, he's returned the favor by showing us how to catch a monster stock market move. A must-read book."
—LARRY WILLIAMS, trader
Synopsis
Prosper from the profitable opportunities of the next financial market super boomIn 1976, Yale Hirsch predicted a fifteen-year super boom—a move in the stock market of 500% or more. His forecast proved accurate as the market rose and continued upward, eventually posting growth over 1,000% just before the tech crash in 2000. In Super Boom, Jeffrey Hirsch, President of the Hirsch Organization and Editor in Chief of the Stock Trader's Almanac, unveils the next market expansion. Building on his father's research from 1976, Hirsch has discovered that meteoric rises in stock indices are due to specific catalysts predominantly outside of the financial markets.
History has a way of repeating itself, especially in the financial markets. The American economy, and subsequently the world economy, has always existed in a cycle of boom and bust: gold, grain, oil, technology, and most recently, real estate, have all bubbled and popped. The key to investing profitably is spotting macroeconomic historical trends and positioning to reap the benefits. Step-by-step, Hirsch puts together the pieces of this puzzle by revealing the central drivers of a super boom.
- Examines how new cultural paradigm-shifting technologies, as well as peace between major wars, could fuel a super boom
- Discusses how the massive injection of money by the government, in response to the global financial crisis and the Great Recession, as well as wartime spending, will eventually create an inflationary environment
- The data and research found here is based on historical information and the boom-and-bust cycle of the past century
As markets and economies struggle over the next several years, remember to keep your eye on the future and get ready for the coming super boom and the next 500% move in the market. With this book as your guide, you'll benefit from the insights that only Jeffrey Hirsch can provide.
About the Author
Jeffrey A. Hirsch is the President of the Hirsch Organization and Editor in Chief of the Stock Trader's Almanac. He worked with founder Yale Hirsch for fifteen years, taking over in 2001. He appears frequently on CNBC, CNN, Bloomberg, Fox Business, and many other national and international media outlets to discuss market cycles, seasonality, trading patterns, predictions, and historical trends. Hirsch also edits the firm's digital toolkit, Almanac Investor, a subscription-based product including investor alerts, market data, and research tools.
Table of Contents
Foreword ixAcknowledgments xiii
PART I Anatomy of a Super Boom
CHAPTER 1 The Boom Equation 3
The math behind the move
CHAPTER 2 A Strangled Economy 15
From slump to powerhouse
PART II The Fortune Tellers
CHAPTER 3 The History of Ignorance and the Ignorance of History 37
Dow 36,000 and the dangers of erroneous assumptions
CHAPTER 4 An Argument against Financial Calamity 49
The best case for and against all hell breaking loose
CHAPTER 5 Yale Hirsch and the 500 Percent Move 57
Discovering the boom pattern
PART III Booms and Busts of the Twentieth Century
CHAPTER 6 Panics, World War I, and the Roaring Twenties 81
From the Rich Man's Panic to the first recorded super boom
CHAPTER 7 Depression, World War II, and the Baby Boom 87
The greatest generation births a boom
CHAPTER 8 Vietnam, Stagflation, and the Information Revolution 95
The greatest boom ever: bigger, faster, longer, higher
PART IV The Prodigal Pattern Returns
CHAPTER 9 Inflation 111
The history and impact of the Consumer Price Index
CHAPTER 10 Investment Ideas and Strategies 129
How to profit now and during a super boom
APPENDIX A Yale Hirsch's 1977 Stock Picks 149
APPENDIX B 1977 Smart Money Newsletter Reprinted 161
Key Terms 171
About the Author 175
Index 177