Synopses & Reviews
Several years after the Arab Spring began, democracy remains elusive in the Middle East. The Arab Spring that resides in the popular imagination is one in which a wave of mass mobilization swept the broader Middle East, toppled dictators, and cleared the way for democracy. The reality is that few Arab countries have experienced anything of the sort. While Tunisia made progress towards some type of constitutionally entrenched participatory rule, the other countries that overthrew their rulers - Egypt, Yemen, and Libya - remain mired in authoritarianism and instability. Elsewhere in the Arab world uprisings were suppressed, subsided or never materialized.
The Arab Spring's modest harvest cries out for explanation. Why did regime change take place in only four Arab countries and why has democratic change proved so elusive in the countries that made attempts? This book attempts to answer those questions. First, by accounting for the full range of variance: from the absence or failure of uprisings in such places as Algeria and Saudi Arabia at one end to Tunisia's rocky but hopeful transition at the other. Second, by examining the deep historical and structure variables that determined the balance of power between incumbents and opposition.
Brownlee, Masoud and Reynolds find that the success of a domestic campaign to oust the ruler was preconditioned by two variables: oil wealth and the precedent of hereditary succession. When rulers were ousted, the balance of power at the time of transition goes far in predicting the character of new constitutional provisions and the trajectory of democratization writ large.
Review
"This is the best book yet on why the Arab Uprisings proved unable to bring desired changes. Deftly blending theories of regime change with attention to the details of the uprisings and post-breakdown efforts to restore order, this authors clearly show why aspirations for democracy were so often disappointed." -Jack A. Goldstone, George Mason University and Woodrow Wilson Center
"The story of the Arab Spring is distressingly familiar - initial euphoria as dictators fell, the sobering challenge of building democracy on the ruins of autocracy, then the grim setback in Egypt and the paroxysms of Libya, Syria, and Yemen. If we hope to understand this critical region, our current political era, and the prospects for democracy to take root in unfamiliar soil, we need to make sense of the Arab Spring. Brownlee, Masoud, and Reynolds are uniquely equipped for this task, bringing expertise on the history, culture, economy, geopolitics, and institutions that drove the uprisings and the politics that followed. The book reveals patterns amid complexity and separates solid evidence from speculation. We will be debating the Arab Spring for generations and updating how we understand it. All the scholarship to come will build on this book." -John M. Carey, Dartmouth College
About the Author
Jason Brownlee,
Associate Professor, University of Texas at Austin,Tarek Masoud,
Associate Professor, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard,Andrew Reynolds,
Associate Professor, University of North Carolina, Chapel HillJason Brownlee is an associate professor of Government and Middle Eastern Studies at the University of Texas at Austin. His current focus is on violence during political transitions and U.S.-Egyptian relations.
Tarek Masoud is an associate professor of public policy at Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government, where he teaches courses on comparative political institutions, democratization, and Middle Eastern politics.
Andrew Reynolds is an Associate Professor of Political Science at UNC Chapel Hill and the Chair of Global Studies. He received his M.A. from the University of Cape Town and his Ph.D. from the University of California, San Diego. His research and teaching focus on democratization, constitutional design and electoral politics. He is particularly interested in the presence and impact of minorities and marginalized communities.
Table of Contents
Introduction
1. Theorizing the Arab Spring
2. Lineages of Repression
3. Breakdowns and Crackdowns
4. Post-Revolutionary Players and Pathways
5. Institution-making in the shadow of revolution