Synopses & Reviews
PRAISE FOR THE GOLDEN REVOLUTION"John Butler provides much illuminating detail on how theworld's monetary system got into its present mess. And if you'rewondering what comes next, this is the book to read."
—Bill Bonner, author of the New York Times bestsellers Empire of Debt, Financial Reckoning Day, and Mobs, Messiahs and Markets
"John Butler has written an indispensable reference on the subject of gold asmoney. His book is a combination of history, analysis, and economics that the reader will find useful in understanding the use and misuse of gold standards over the past century. He breaks the book into a long series of essays on particular aspects of gold that the reader can take as a whole or in small bites. It is technical yet accessible at the same time. The Golden Revolution is a useful and timely contribution to the growing literature ongold and gold standards in monetary systems. I highly recommend it."
—James Rickards, author of Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis
"In The Golden Revolution, John Butler makes a powerful case for a return to thegold standard and offers a plausible path for our nation to get there. Enlightened investors who blaze the trail will likely reap the greatest reward. For those still wandering in the dark, this book provides necessary light to keep you headed in the right direction."
—Peter Schiff, CEO, Euro Pacific Precious Metals; host of The Peter Schiff Show; and author of The Real Crash: America's Coming Bankruptcy—How to Save Yourself and Your Country
"John Butler's historical treasure trove empowers the reader tounderstand, prepare, and act. To have a chance to emerge unscathedfrom financial turmoil, join the Golden Revolution. I have."
—Axel Merk, Merk Funds; author of Sustainable Wealth
"The Golden Revolution is another indispensable step on the road map back to sound money. John Butler's experience of the modern 'fiat' banking world, combined with his understanding of the virtues of a disciplined monetary system, allow for genuine insight into the practical steps that could, and surely will, be taken to reestablish gold as money."
—Ned Naylor-Leyland, Investment Director MCSI, Cheviot Asset Management
"Ex scientia pecuniae libertas (out of knowledge of money comes freedom).John has used his exemplary knowledge of money to lay out a cogent framework for the transition of society based on fiat money to a more honest society forged by gold. He has taken complexity and given us simplicity. Monetary economics and its interrelationship with geopolitics, finance, and society is extraordinarily complex, but he has managed to assimilate a vast array of information and distill it in a simple and thoroughly thoughtful framework. That is an art many academic writers never achieve."
—Ben Davies, cofounder and CEO, Hinde Capital
Review
“This is a wonderful history and description of gold and it would be in everyones interest to understand its conclusion.”
Review
“An outstanding book about the coming transfer of the economic world power due to the decline of the world supremacy of the United States. Written from an economic point of view it leads to the same result as in the famous book of Samuel Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations. Willem Middelkoops best book so far.”
Review
“Willem Middelkoop and
The Big Reset is right in the thick of the action! Great book; awesome statistical reference to go along with the analysis.”
Review
“[A] readable, persuasive book. . . . Recommended.”
Synopsis
Why the gold standard is due for a comebackA reserve currency can only function as such if there is a general consensus that it provides a stable store of value. Without this trust, money, no matter what form it takes, will be abandoned—either suddenly in a crisis, or gradually over time—in favor of something else. The Golden Revolution looks at how the world is rapidly moving toward some form of global metallic standard, in which money, at least in official, international transactions, is linked directly to gold, silver, or both.
The practical reality of the transition to the coming global gold (or bimetallic) standard is going to be substantially different from the global fiat monetary and financial regime of today. It is not just money that is going to change. The nature and business of banking will also be affected, as will finance in general.
- Incisive and thoughtful, The Golden Revolution is a treatise on the broad effects of the current and future monetary structure
- Looks at why the world is headed inexorably back towards a metallic money standard
- Explores what the transition period might look like, including some historical examples of both orderly and disorderly transitions
- Examines how the world of banking, finance, and investment, including asset valuation and portfolio management techniques, will work under a future gold standard and which industries, countries and markets are likely to benefit and which are likely to suffer
Full of advice on how investors can profit and protect themselves during this critical time of change, the book knows that those who are prepared will prosper, while those who won't stand to lose it all.
Synopsis
The protracted global economic crisis has awakened the long-dormant debate about whether the United States or other countries should reinstate some form of gold standard. While not surprising given that there is now general agreement that excessive money and credit growth played a key role in the near collapse of the global financial system in 2008, in fact a return to gold is inevitable at this point. John Butler makes a compelling case in this book that there is simply no other way to restore a sufficient degree of credibility and trust in the dollar, or other major currencies for that matter, withouta return to some form of gold standard.
Already there are a number of major countriesexpressing concern about the stability of the dollar. And concern is increasingly giving way to action. As the dollar's role gradually declines, global monetary arrangements are likely to become increasingly multipolar, as there is no single currency that can realistically replace the dollar as the preeminent global monetary reserve. As students of economic history will note, it was precisely a multipolar world amid rapidly growing international trade that usheredin the classical gold standard in the 1870s. The world's 40-year experiment with purely unbacked fiat currencies is thus rapidly approaching its conclusion.
This book, however, goes much farther than predict a return to gold. It explores just what the transition might look like, including both orderly and disorderly scenarios and drawing on historical examples where relevant. It considers to what extent the price of gold will likely rise as it becomes remonetized. Most important, it prepares the reader with practical investment advice for the coming return to gold, including thoughts on interest rates, exchange rates, credit spreads, equity market valuations, and risk premia for assets in general. As such, John Butler provides not only a compelling vision of the future, but also a detailed road map for navigating what is likely to be the most challenging investment landscape in generations.
Synopsis
What is money really worth anymore? This compelling study outlines the rise of fiat money and its associated economic implications. Until 1914, almost all major currencies were backed by gold but as the costs of World War I grew, most European countries were forced to abandon the gold standard and fiat money was born.
Since the US took the dollar out of the gold standard in 1971, gold became financial enemy number one. The author provides enough circumstantial evidence to claim a secret War on Gold, ongoing since the London Gold Pool of the 1960s. It also explains golds traditional role as the anchor of financial systems.
To combat the economic fallout of the credit crisis, governments have allowed their budgetary deficit to increase dramatically. In order to address that problem they have to sell enormous amounts of bonds. As more and more investors stop buying them, central banks have to step up to the plate. By turning on the (digital) printing presses more frequently they are in the process to monetize the debts.
Due to all the emergency support, government debts have risen to a dangerous level, as one country after another gets into financial difficulties. Piling more and more bad debt onto the balance sheets of central banks is not a sustainable way to revive the economy. Middelkoop highlights the process as part of our economic endgame which will eventually lead to a big reset of our worlwide financial system.
Synopsis
A system reset is imminent. Probably even before 2020, the worlds financial system will need to find a different anchor. The dollar has been at the center of the monetary system since the Second World War, but decades of money printing have caused a gradual but relentless dollar devaluation. In a desperate attempt to maintain this dollar system, the United States has waged a secret war on gold since the 1960s. China and Russia have pierced through the American smokescreen around gold and the dollar and are no longer willing to continue lending to the United States. Both countries have been accumulating enormous amounts of gold, positioning themselves for the next phase of the global financial system.
There are only two options: a financial reset planned well in advance, or a hastily implemented one on the back of a dollar crisis. The United States, realizing the dollar will lose its prominent role, seems to be planning a monetary reset that will surprise many. It will be designed to keep the United States in the driving seat, but will include strong roles for the Euro and Chinas Renminbi. And it is likely gold will be reintroduced as one of the pillars of this next phase of the global financial system. Insiders claim gold could be revalued up to $7,000 per troy ounce during this process.
About the Author
John Butler worked for over 15 years asan interest rate, foreign exchange, and commodity strategist at major banks around the world before founding Amphora Capital, an independent investment and advisory firm, in London. He has written extensively on financial topics, and his work has been cited in the Financial Times, the Wall Street Journal, and the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, among other publications. He is also the author and publisher of the popular Amphora Report newsletter and is an occasional speaker at global investment conferences. He resides in the English countryside with his wife and four children.
Table of Contents
Acknowledgments ix
Introduction: Why a Gold Standard Lies in Our Near Future 1
Part I Why the Days of the Fiat Dollar Are Numbered 7
Chapter 1 The Window Closes 13
Chapter 2 Stagnation, Stagflation, and the Rise of "Darth" Volcker 23
Chapter 3 Of Bubbles and Bailouts 35
Chapter 4 Why Financial Genius Fails, or, a Forensic Study of the 2008–2009 Global Credit Crisis 41
Chapter 5 An Unstable Equilibrium 51
Chapter 6 The Inevitability of Regime Change 73
Part II Running the Golden Gauntlet: Transition Scenarios Back to a Gold Standard 79
Chapter 7 A Golden Bolt out of the Blue 85
Chapter 8 Golden Preparations 95
Chapter 9 Long-Forgotten Suggestions for How the United States Could Return to Gold 115
Chapter 10 The Golden BRICs 125
Chapter 11 When All Else Fails, Enter the Gold Vigilantes 133
Part III The Economic, Financial, and Investment Implications of the Coming Global Gold Standard 137
Chapter 12 The Role of Central Banking under a Gold Standard 143
Chapter 13 Valuation Fundamentals under a Gold Standard 155
Chapter 14 Estimating Risk Premia under a Gold Standard 167
Chapter 15 Golden Winners and Paper Losers 181
Chapter 16 Some Implications of the Gold Standard for Global Labor and Capital Markets 189
Conclusion: The Golden Society 193
Further Reading 199
About the Author 206
Index 207