Synopses & Reviews
Today, more than five decades after the dawn of the nuclear age, we again find ourselves living in an age of anxiety. And, again, a major reason is the potential unbridled spread of nuclear weapons. Enormous concern has been raised about the possible proliferation among the so-called rogue states. But what about states that have previously foresworn nuclear weapons but might be tempted to reconsider that judgment? Could events spark countries to dash headlong to acquire nuclear arsenals? Are we approaching a nuclear "tipping point," where many countries may decide to acquire nuclear arsenals on short notice, thereby triggering a proliferation epidemic? In Wild Fire a group of distinguished scholars with extensive government experience develop a framework for examining the factors that influence a state's decision on acquiring nuclear weapons. They look at eight representative countries that historically decided not to develop nuclear weapons but could acquire these capabilities fairly quickly: Egypt, Germany, Japan, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Syria, Turkey, and Taiwan. Finally, the authors develop a set of prescriptions to both prevent these countries from reconsidering their nuclear option and avert any other possible proliferators. Contributors include Leon S. Fuerth, former national security adviser to Vice President Al Gore and now at George Washington University; Ellen Laipson, former vice chair of the National Intelligence Council and now president of the Stimson Center; Thomas W. Lippman, former Washington Post correspondent and now at the Middle East Institute; Jenifer Mackby, former senior political affairs officer in the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva and now at theCenter for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS); Derek Mitchell, former special assistant for Asian and Pacific affairs in the Office of the Secretary of Defense and now at CSIS; Joseph F. Pilat, former special adviser at the Third Review Conference of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and now at Los Alamos National Laboratory; and Walter B. Slocombe, former undersecretary of defense for policy and now senior adviser to the Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq.
Synopsis
More than half a century after the advent of the nuclear age, is the world approaching a tipping point that will unleash an epidemic of nuclear proliferation? Today many of the building blocks of a nuclear arsenalscientific and engineering expertise, precision machine tools, software, design informationare more readily available than ever before. The nuclear pretensions of so-called rogue states and terrorist organizations are much discussed. But how firm is the resolve of those countries that historically have chosen to forswear nuclear weapons? A combination of changes in the international environment could set off a domino effect, with countries scrambling to develop nuclear weapons so as not to be left behindor to develop nuclear hedge capacities that would allow them to build nuclear arsenals relatively quickly, if necessary. The Nuclear Tipping Point examines the factors, both domestic and transnational, that shape nuclear policy. The authors, distinguished scholars and foreign policy practitioners with extensive government experience, develop a framework for understanding why certain countries may originally have decided to renounce nuclear weaponsand pinpoint some more recent country-specific factors that could give them cause to reconsider. Case studies of eight long-term stalwarts of the nonproliferation regimeEgypt, Germany, Japan, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Syria, Turkey, and Taiwanflesh out this framework and show how even these countries might be pushed over the edge of a nuclear tipping point. The authors offer prescriptions that would both prevent such countries from reconsidering their nuclear option and avert proliferation by others. The stakes are enormous and successis far from assured. To keep the tipping point beyond reach, the authors argue, the international community will have to act with unity, imagination, and strength, and Washington's leadership will be essential. Contributors include Leon Feurth, George Washington University; Ellen Laipson, Stimson Center; Thomas W. Lippman, Middle East Institute; Jenifer Mackby, Center for Strategic and International Studies; Derek J. Mitchell, Center for Strategic and International Studies; Jonathan D. Pollack, U.S. Naval War College; Walter B. Slocombe, Caplin and Drysdale; and Tsuyoshi Sunohara, Center for Strategic and International Studies.